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研究生:馬蕾頔
研究生(外文):Lady Arvie Pamor Magararu
論文名稱:2025年台灣電力系統可再生能源與儲能系統的經濟分析
論文名稱(外文):Economic Analysis of Renewables and Energy Storage System in 2025 Taipower System
指導教授:洪穎怡洪穎怡引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hong Ying-Yi
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中原大學
系所名稱:電機工程研究所
學門:工程學門
學類:電資工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2020
畢業學年度:108
語文別:英文
論文頁數:249
中文關鍵詞:電力系統經濟分析可再生能源太陽能風力儲能係統
外文關鍵詞:Taiwan Power SystemEconomic AnalysisRenewable EnergySolar PowerWind PowerEnergy Storage System
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決定發電成本對於電力系統的最佳設計和規劃至關重要。本研究旨在使用Homer Pro微電網分析工具(Homer)軟体對台灣電力系統進行經濟分析。本論文考慮了定制模型,其中包括台灣北部、中部和南部地區太陽能光伏場的不同位置。通過將2018年台灣電力系統模擬與能源局(BOE)報告中的統計數據進行比較來完成模型的驗證。然後,利用敏感性分析模擬了2025年台灣電力系統的不同情況,其中考慮了可再生能源發展法案規定的高、中及低值的海上電力供應所需的運轉備轉和可再生目標容量。在2025年的情景中,可再生能源發電占比從9.21%到17.26%不等,能源平均成本(COE)從4.77新台幣/千瓦時變化到4.82新台幣/千瓦時。可再生能源發電量越高,碳排放水平越低,但能源平均成本就越高。除此之外,本論文評估了將風電場整合到併網的混合區域電力系統中的經濟可行性,並且隨著成本從新台幣873.5萬元增加到新台幣3650萬元,電池存儲系統的最佳容量下降。
Determining the cost of generating electricity is the vital in optimal designing and planning of power systems. This study aims to perform economic analysis for Taiwan power system using Homer Pro Microgrid Analysis tool (Homer) software. Customized modeling including different locations of solar PV farms in north, central and south areas in Taiwan is considered. Validation of the model is done by comparing the 2018 Taiwan power system simulation with statistical data from Bureau of Energy (BOE) report. Then, different scenarios for 2025 Taiwan power system are simulated using sensitivity analysis considering high, average and low values of offshore availability, required operating reserves and renewable target capacity specified in the Renewable Energy Development Act. The renewable fraction ranges from 9.21 to 17.26% and the levelized cost of energy (COE) varies from 4.77 to 4.82 NT$/kWh for scenarios in 2025. Higher renewable energy generation leads to lower carbon emissions levels but incorporates higher COE. In connection, economic viability of integrating wind farms in a grid-tied hybrid regional power system is assessed and optimized capacity of battery storage system decreases as the capital cost increases from NT$ 8.735 Million to NT$ 36.5 Million.
摘要
Abstract
Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables

Chapter 1: Introduction
1-1 Background and Motivation
1-2 Literature Review
1-3 Research Goals and Steps
1-4 Contribution
1-5 Structure of the Thesis

Chapter 2: Economics of Power Generation
2-1 Economic Factors
2-2 Performance Indicators
2-2-1 Economic Indicators
2-2-2 Technological Indicators
2-2-3 Environmental Indicators
2-3 Government Policies

Chapter 3: Energies Used in Power Systems
3-1 Renewable Energy
3-1-1 Solar Energy
3-1-2 Wind Energy
3-1-3 Hydro Energy
3-1-4 Bioenergy
3-2 Non-renewable Energy
3-2-1 Fossil Fuels
3-2-1-1 Natural Gas
3-2-1-2 Coal
3-2-1-3 Oil
3-2-2 Nuclear Energy
3-3 Energy Storage System
3-3-1 Pumped Hydro Storage
3-3-2 Compressed-Air Energy Storage
3-3-3 Battery Energy Storage System
3-3-4 Flow Battery Energy Storage System
3-3-5 Flywheel Energy Storage System

Chapter 4: Homer Professional Microgrid Analysis Tool
4-1 Design
4-1-1 Load
4-1-2 Components
4-1-2-1 Generator
4-1-2-2 PV
4-1-2-3 Wind Turbine
4-1-2-4 Hydro
4-1-2-5 Hydrokinetic
4-1-2-6 Customized Component
4-1-2-7 Storage
4-1-2-8 Converter
4-1-2-9 Grid
4-1-2-10 Controller
4-1-2-11 Other Components
4-1-3 Resources
4-1-3-1 Solar GHI and DNI Resource
4-1-3-2 Wind Resource
4-1-3-3 Temperature Resource
4-1-3-4 Hydro Resource
4-1-3-5 Hydrokinetic
4-1-3-6 Fuel Resource
4-1-3-7 Biomass
4-1-3-8 Custom Resource
4-1-4 Project
4-1-4-1 Economics
4-1-4-2 Constraints
4-1-4-3 Emissions
4-1-4-4 Optimization
4-1-4-5 Search Space
4-1-5 Calculate
4-2 Homer Results
4-2-1 Summary Mode
4-2-2 Tabular Mode
4-2-3 Graphical Mode
4-2-4 Simulation Results

Chapter 5: Methodology
5-1 Studied Location
5-2 2018 Taiwan Power System
5-2-1 Power Demand Estimation
5-2-2 Solar PV
5-2-3 Onshore Wind
5-2-4 Hydro
5-2-5 Waste Energy
5-2-6 Biomass
5-2-7 Thermal Generators
5-2-8 Nuclear Energy
5-2-9 Pumped Hydro Storage
5-3 2025 Taiwan Power System
5-3-1 Power Demand Estimation
5-3-2 Solar PV
5-3-3 Wind Farms
5-3-3-1 Onshore Wind Farm
5-3-3-2 Offshore Wind Farm
5-3-4 Other Components
5-3-5 Scenarios
5-3-6 Sensitivity Variables
5-4 Regional Power System
5-4-1 Power Demand Estimation
5-4-2 Wind Power System
5-4-3 Natural Gas Generators
5-4-4 Bulk Grid
5-4-5 Battery Storage
5-4-6 Different Cases

Chapter 6: Data and Results
6-1 2018 Taiwan Power System Results
6-1-1 Solar PV Results
6-1-2 Onshore Wind Farm Results
6-1-3 Hydro Power Results
6-1-4 Waste Power Results
6-1-5 Biomass Results
6-1-6 Thermal Generation Results
6-1-7 Nuclear Power Results
6-1-8 Pumped Hydro Storage Results
6-1-9 Converter
6-2 2018 Power Generation Comparison
6-3 2025 Taiwan Power System Results
6-3-1 Solar PV Results
6-3-2 Wind Farm Results
6-3-2-1 Onshore Wind Farm Results
6-3-2-2 Offshore Wind Farm Results
6-3-3 Thermal Generation Results
6-3-4 Pumped Hydro Storage Results
6-3-5 Converter
6-3-6 Other Generation Results
6-4 Scenarios for 2025 Taiwan Power System
6-4-1 Power Generation
6-4-2 Economics of power generation
6-4-3 Emissions
6-5 Regional Power System Results
6-5-1 Case 1
6-5-2 Case 2
6-5-3 Case 3

Chapter 7: Conclusion and Future Works
7-1 Conclusion
7-2 Future Works
References

Figure 2-1. Global LCOE of utility-scale renewable power generation technologies, 2010-2018 [28].
Figure 2-2. Worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by source, 1990-2018 [3].
Figure 3-1. The earth''s atmosphere and clouds affect the way the sun''s light reaches the surface of the earth [34].
Figure 3-2. Schematic of solar PV cell [37].
Figure 3-3. Current voltage (IV) cure of a solar cell [36].
Figure 3-4. Solar radiation on a tilted surface [36].
Figure 3-5. Solar energy global installed capacity (2010-2018).
Figure 3-6. Solar PV LCOE and capacity factor (2010-2018).
Figure 3-7. CSP LCOE and capacity factor (2010-2018).
Figure 3-8. Wind turbine construction type [41].
Figure 3-9. Wind energy global installed capacity (2010-2018).
Figure 3-10. Onshore wind LCOE and capacity factor (2010-2018).
Figure 3-11. Offshore wind LCOE and capacity factor (2010-2018).
Figure 3-12. Hydropower impoundment facility [43].
Figure 3-13. Run of river facility [28].
Figure 3-14. Hydropower global installed capacity (2010-2018).
Figure 3-15. Hydropower LCOE and capacity factor (2010-2018).
Figure 3-16. Road map for biomass generation and conversion [48].
Figure 3-17. Bioenergy global installed capacity (2010-2018).
Figure 3-18. Bioenergy LCOE and Capacity Factor (2010-2018).
Figure 3-19. Schematic geology of natural gas.
Figure 3-20. Natural gas production and delivery.
Figure 3-21. Nuclear Global Installed Capacity (2010-2018).
Figure 3-22. Load profile of a large-capacity ESS [52].
Figure 3-23. Schematic of pumped storage plant [52].
Figure 3-24. Pure PHS global installed capacity (2010-2018).
Figure 3-25. System description of CAES System [53].
Figure 3-26. Operation principle of BESS [53].
Figure 3-27. Operation principle of flow BESS [53].
Figure 3-28. Topology of Flywheel ESS [53].
Figure 4-1. Core capabilities of Homer software.
Figure 4-2. Homer software toolbar.
Figure 4-3. Homer software home page.
Figure 4-4. Create synthetic load from a profile.
Figure 4-5. Default load templates [57].
Figure 4-6. Koeppen Geiger Climate Classification System [47].
Figure 4-7. Electric load page.
Figure 4-8. Homer software components tab.
Figure 4-9. Generator set up page.
Figure 4-10. Catalog for generator component.
Figure 4-11. Generator component page.
Figure 4-12. Generator advanced properties: Fuel resource.
Figure 4-13. Generator advanced properties: Fuel curve.
Figure 4-14. Generator advanced properties: Schedule.
Figure 4-15. PV set up page.
Figure 4-16. PV component page.
Figure 4-17. Wind turbine set up page.
Figure 4-18. Wind turbine component page.
Figure 4-19. Maintenance schedule example.
Figure 4-20. Hydro component page.
Figure 4-21. Hydrokinetic component page.
Figure 4-22. Custom set up page.
Figure 4-23. Custom component page.
Figure 4-24. Storage component page.
Figure 4-25. Converter component page.
Figure 4-26. Sample .txt file for real-time grid rate.
Figure 4-27. Rate definition for scheduled rates.
Figure 4-28. Boiler component page.
Figure 4-29. Reformer component page.
Figure 4-30. Electrolyzer component page.
Figure 4-31. Hydrogen tank component page.
Figure 4-32. Homer software resources tab.
Figure 4-33. Solar GHI resource.
Figure 4-34. Location coordinates input at Home page.
Figure 4-35. Wind resource page.
Figure 4-36. Wind resource variation with height tab.
Figure 4-37. Roughness help for logarithmic wind speed profile.
Figure 4-38. Weibull distribution for different k values.
Figure 4-39. Temperature resource page.
Figure 4-40. Hydro resource page.
Figure 4-41. Fuel resource page.
Figure 4-42. Biomass resource page.
Figure 4-43. Custom resource set up page.
Figure 4-44. Custom resource page.
Figure 4-45. Homer software project tab.
Figure 4-46. Economics page.
Figure 4-47. Constraints page.
Figure 4-48. Emissions page.
Figure 4-49. Optimization page.
Figure 4-50. Different focus factor.
Figure 4-51. Search space window.
Figure 4-52. Inactive calculate button and suggestion area.
Figure 4-53. Homer results in summary mode.
Figure 4-54. Tabular view of results page.
Figure 4-55. Graphical view of results page.
Figure 4-56. Simulation window.
Figure 5-1. Overview flow diagram of methodology.
Figure 5-2. Studied location map in Homer software.
Figure 5-3. 2018 Taiwan power system.
Figure 5-4. Daily historical peak load in 2018.
Figure 5-5. Estimated hourly demand ratio.
Figure 5-6. Randomized load profile for 2018.
Figure 5-7. Schematic and location for solar PV north.
Figure 5-8. Download GHI form NASA database.
Figure 5-9. Sizing for solar PV and calculate button.
Figure 5-10. Simulation results window.
Figure 5-11. CSV file of simulation results.
Figure 5-12. Txt file of solar PV time series power output.
Figure 5-13. Schematic and location for solar PV central area.
Figure 5-14. Schematic and location for solar PV south area.
Figure 5-15. Files containing the time series power output.
Figure 5-16. Average monthly GHI for different areas in Taiwan.
Figure 5-17. Custom set up of purchase power agreement for solar PV.
Figure 5-18. PPA custom component page for solar PV north.
Figure 5-19. Custom component page for solar PV north.
Figure 5-20. Time series profile of onshore wind resource.
Figure 5-21. Schematic and hydro component page.
Figure 5-22. Hydro resource page.
Figure 5-23. Custom component page for hydro.
Figure 5-24. Monthly average power output for waste resource.
Figure 5-25. Custom component page for waste energy.
Figure 5-26. Generic biogas generator component.
Figure 5-27. Estimated monthly average of biomass resource.
Figure 5-28. Coal fuel resource assumed properties.
Figure 5-29. NPS custom component for nuclear.
Figure 5-30. Estimated time series file of nuclear power output.
Figure 5-31. PHS component page.
Figure 5-32. 2025 studied power system in Taiwan.
Figure 5-33. Estimated load profile for 2025.
Figure 5-34. Solar PV north PPA custom component for 2025.
Figure 5-35. Schematic and quantity search space for onshore wind.
Figure 5-36. Import wind resource and calculate.
Figure 5-37. CSV file of simulation results.
Figure 5-38. Txt file of onshore wind time series power output.
Figure 5-39. Custom set up of PPA for onshore wind.
Figure 5-40. PPA custom component page for onshore wind.
Figure 5-41. Custom resource page for onshore wind.
Figure 5-42. Wind turbine component for offshore wind farm.
Figure 5-43. Wind turbine power curve profile window.
Figure 5-44. Time series profile of offshore wind resource.
Figure 5-45. Imported monthly average offshore wind speed.
Figure 5-46. Sensitivity variables in project constraints.
Figure 5-47. Sensitivity variable in the custom component page.
Figure 5-48. Sensitivity inputs window.
Figure 5-49. Studied regional power system.
Figure 5-50. Hourly average load profile.
Figure 5-51. Monthly average load profile.
Figure 5-52. Average monthly wind speed equivalent.
Figure 5-53. Schematic configuration of three cases.
Figure 6-1. Power generation results for solar PV north area.
Figure 6-2. Power generation results for solar PV central area.
Figure 6-3. Power generation results for solar PV south area.
Figure 6-4. Power generation results for onshore wind farm.
Figure 6-5. Scatter plot of onshore power output vs wind speed.
Figure 6-6. Frequency of changes in wind speed over 24 hours.
Figure 6-7. Hydropower generation.
Figure 6-8. Waste power generation.
Figure 6-9. Biomass power generation.
Figure 6-10. Randomized nuclear power generation.
Figure 6-11. PHS hourly state of charge.
Figure 6-12. PHS monthly average state of charge.
Figure 6-13. Inverter output.
Figure 6-14. Rectifier output.
Figure 6-14 Comparison of actual and simulated power generation in 2018.
Figure 6-16. Power generation results for solar PV north area.
Figure 6-17. Power generation results for solar PV central area.
Figure 6-18. Power generation results for solar PV south area.
Figure 6-19. Power generation results for PPA onshore wind farm.
Figure 6-20. 2025 offshore wind power generation.
Figure 6-21. Scatter plot of offshore power output vs wind speed.
Figure 6-22. Frequency of changes in offshore wind speed over 24 hours.
Figures 6-23. PHS hourly state of charge.
Figures 6-24. PHS monthly average state of charge.
Figures 6-25. 2025 simulated inverter output.
Figures 6-26. 2025 simulated rectifier output.
Figure 6- 27. Power generation of different scenarios in 2025.
Figure 6- 28. Renewable fraction of different scenarios in 2025.
Figure 6- 29. Renewable generation of different scenarios in 2025.
Figure 6- 30. Summary of annual throughput of scenarios in 2025.
Figure 6-31. Summary of levelized COE of scenarios in 2025.
Figure 6-32. Summary of NPC of scenarios in 2025.
Figure 6- 33. Summary of operating cost of scenarios in 2025.
Figure 6-34. Summary of emission of scenarios in 2025.
Figure 6-35. Case 1 - Monthly average electric production.
Figure 6-36. Case 1 - Hourly average fuel consumption.
Figure 6-37. Case 1 - Energy purchased from the grid.
Figure 6-38. Case 2 - Monthly average electric production.
Figure 6-39. Case 2 - Hourly average fuel consumption.
Figure 6-40. Case 2 - Energy Purchased from the Grid.
Figure 6-41. Wind farm 1 power output.
Figure 6-42. Wind farm 2 power output.
Figure 6-43. Case 3a - Monthly average electric production.
Figure 6-44. Case 3a - Hourly average fuel consumption.
Figure 6-45. Case 3a - Energy purchased from the grid.

Table 2-1. Electricity Prices in Selected Asian Countries [4].
Table 2-2. Changes of electricity price in Taiwan (2008-2018) [4].
Table 2-3. LCOE of utility-scale renewable power generation [28].
Table 2-4. The 2020 FIT of the Solar PV in Taiwan [31].
Table 2-5. The 2020 FIT of the Renewable Energy in Taiwan [31].
Table 3-1. Friction coefficient for various terrain characteristics.
Table 4-1. Homer grid rates [12].
Table 4-2. Control parameters for real time rates mode [12].
Table 4-3. Additional options for advance grid [12].
Table 4-4. Dispatch strategies in Homer controller component [57].
Table 4-5. Homer resource and components [57].
Table 4-6. Fuel resource properties and description [57].
Table 4-7. Biomass resource properties [57].
Table 4-8. Project options and descriptions [12, 57].
Table 4-9. Optimization settings and description [57].
Table 4-10. Optimizer settings and description.
Table 5-1. 2018 installed capacity and O&M costs.
Table 5-2. Daily peak load (January to June).
Table 5-3. Daily peak load (July to December).
Table 5-4. Runoff rates for hydro [65].
Table 5-5. 2025 installed capacity and O&M costs.
Table 5-6. Summary of factors and degrees considered for 2025 scenarios.
Table 5-7. Scenarios for 2025 Taiwan power system.
Table 5-8. Simulation for 2025 Taiwan power system.
Table 5-9. Summary and cost assumptions of wind turbines.
Table 5-10. Summary and cost assumptions of natural gas generators.
Table 5-11. Summary and cost assumptions of the grid.
Table 5-12. Summary and cost assumptions of energy storage system.
Table 6-1. Summary of solar PV results in 2018.
Table 6-2. Summary of onshore wind farm results in 2018.
Table 6-3. Summary of hydropower results in 2018.
Table 6-4. Summary of waste power results in 2018.
Table 6-5. Summary of biomass results in 2018.
Table 6-6. Summary of fuel consumption in 2018.
Table 6-7. Summary of emissions in 2018.
Table 6-8. Summary of nuclear power results in 2018.
Table 6-9. Summary of PHS results in 2018.
Table 6-10. Summary of converter results in 2018.
Table 6-11. Summary of actual and simulated power generation in 2018.
Table 6-12. Summary of solar PV results in 2025.
Table 6-13. Summary of onshore wind farm results in 2025.
Table 6-14. Summary of offshore wind farm results in 2025.
Table 6-15. Summary of fuel consumption in 2025.
Table 6-16. Summary of emissions in 2025.
Table 6-17. Summary of PHS power results in 2025.
Table 6-18. Summary of converter results in 2025.
Table 6-19. Economics of power generation results of scenarios in 2025.
Table 6-20. Wind farm summary of results in the regional power system.
Table 6-21. Energy storage summary of results.
Table 6-22. Economic results comparison.
Table 6-23. Summary of emission results.
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