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研究生:張秀靜
研究生(外文):CHANG, HSIU-CHING
論文名稱:COVID-19對消費、生活模式及其經濟之影響: 結合DEMATEL、ANP以及產業關聯模型之應用
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of the COVID-19 on Consumption 、Life Style and the Economy in Taiwan: An Application of the DEMATEL、ANP and Input-Output Model
指導教授:洪振義洪振義引用關係李見發李見發引用關係
指導教授(外文):HONG, CHENG-YIHLI, JIAN-FA
口試委員:劉晉宏魏清圳李見發洪振義楊坤鋒
口試委員(外文):LIU, CHIN-HUNGWEI, CHING-CHUNLI, JIAN-FAHONG, CHENG-YIHYANG, KUN-FENG
口試日期:2021-07-09
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:朝陽科技大學
系所名稱:企業管理系台灣產業策略發展博士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:71
中文關鍵詞:武漢肺炎消費方式DEMATEL法ANP法動態產業關聯模型
外文關鍵詞:COVID-19Consumption patternsDEMATEL modelANP methoddynamic Input-Output models
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摘 要
2019年底爆發了COVID-19演變「全球大流行」(pandemic)之後,除了造成各國的重大傷亡之外也重創世界經濟。COVID-19危機發展至今將近一年。新型病毒感染產生的危機涵蓋相當廣泛範圍,生活方式受到嚴重的限制,扭曲了民間消費與企業生產,經濟面臨極大的衝擊。為了因應COVID-19危機,包含台灣在內的世界各國都編列鉅額預算試圖減輕經濟的損害。
COVID-19危機對市場消費模式與經營模式產生變化,這些變化對台灣經濟造成衝擊。本研究將研究焦點集中COVID-19流行期間對消費模式及其經濟之影響,採用主成份分析法萃取影響因素,再透過DEMATEL法萃取各項因素,經過ANP方法的加權作為動態產業關聯模型評估對經濟產業的影響。
Abstract
Since the end of 2019, COVID-19 has developed into a global pandemic. This unprecedented catastrophe not only created mass casualties but also devastated the world’s economy. It has been almost a year since the outbreak of the COVID19 crisis. The scope of the impact of the virus is immense: it limits the ways of life, distorts the private consumption and business production, and it has severely affected the economy. To response to the COVID-19 crisis, countries across the globe attempt to minimize the economic loss with high budget fiscal measures, including Taiwan. The national pandemic response of Taiwan has effectively controlled the spread of COVID-19. Many documents have found that the COVID-19 crisis has already produced changes in market consumption patterns and business models, and these changes have also caused an impact on Taiwan’s economy. This research plan will focus on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on consumption patterns and the economy. The research methods of this project uses principal component analysis to extract factors that affect consumption patterns and its economy, and then extracts various key factors through the DEMATEL method. After weighting by the ANP method, it is used as a dynamic Input-Output model to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Taiwan Industry impact data.

中文摘要 ……………………………………………………………………….I
Abstact …..……………………………………………………………………II
誌謝 ...…………………………………………………………………………III
目錄 …..………………………………………………………………….…….V
表目錄 …….………………………………………………………………….VII
圖目錄 …..………………………………………………………………..…VIII

第一章 研究動機與研究目的 ……......…….…………………………………1
第一節 研究動機 ……...……………………………………………………1
第二節 研究目的 ……...……………………………………………………5
第三節 研究架構說明 ……...………………………………………………6
第二章 文獻回顧 ……...…...………………………...………………………..8
第三章 研究模型的建立與結合 ...……....………………...………………...13
第一節 資料說明(初步處理:文獻以及主成份分析的變數萃取) …...…...13
第二節 DEMATEL 模型建立 …………………………………………….15
第三節 ANP 模型建立 ……...……………………………………………20
第四節 動態產業關聯模型建立 ……....………………………………….21
第五節 連結DEMATEL,ANP以及動態產業關聯模型 ……...……….27
第四章 COVID-19的爆發經濟影響與政策措施.………..…………….……28
第一節 COVID-19的經濟影響 ……………………………………....…...28
第二節 COVID-19的經濟措施 ………………………………….……….31
第五章 COVID-19對消費與生活之影響分析 ………….………...………..33
第一節 問卷資料的設計與處理 ……...…………………………………..33
第二節 主成份分析COVID-19對生活方式與消費影響 ………………..34
第三節 DEMATEL模型萃取生活與消費模式變化關鍵因素 …………..42
第六章 COVID-19對我國經濟之影響分析 ………….……………………54
第一節 COVID-19的經濟影響評估的說明 ……...………………………54
第二節 COVID-19疫情的經濟影響分析 ……...…………………………55
第七章 結論與建議 ……...……..……………………..………….………...60
第一節 結論 ……...…………..……………………..………….………...60
第二節 建議 ……..……………………………………………………….62
參考文獻 ……...…….…..…………………………………………………….67
















表 目 錄
表1 國際完全失業率 ……...…………………………………………………2
表4 COVID-19防治及紓困振興特別預算 ……..…………………………32
表5-1 COVID-19 疫情影響的問卷分析: 主成份分析 ……...……………..34
表5-2 COVID-19對生活方式與消費影響的KMO與Bartlett檢定 ……....34
表5-3 COVID-19對生活方式與消費影響的共同性 ……….………………35
表5-4 COVID-19對生活方式與消費影響之主成份解說總變異量 …….....37
表5-5 COVID-19對生活方式與消費影響主成份的轉軸後成份矩陣(a). .…39
表5-6 COVID-19在生活與消費模式之變動因素 …………………………..47
表5-7 COVID-19影響生活方式與消費習慣變化因素之權重 ……………..53
表6-1 COVID-19疫情對整體經濟影響 ……………………………………..55
表6-2 COVID-19疫情對企業的粗附加價值影響 …………………………..56
表6-3 COVID-19疫情對勞工的雇用所得的影響 …………………………..57
表6-4 COVID-19疫情對失業的影響 ………………………………………..58








圖 目 錄
圖1-1 COVID-19之後的美國道瓊指數的變化 ………………………………3
圖1-2研究架構 ………..………………………………………………………7
圖3 COVID-19期間的市場消費與商業模式因果圖 ……….………………19
圖4-1 COVID-19期間失業率變化 …………………………………………..29
圖4-2 COVID-19期間物價指數變化 ……….………………………………29
圖5-1 COVID-19對生活方式與消費影響因素陡坡圖………………………38
圖5-2 標準化之前COVID-19在生活與消費模式問卷矩陣 ………………44
圖5-3 標準化處理後COVID-19在生活與消費模式問卷矩陣 ……………45
圖5-4 COVID-19在生活與消費模式的總影響矩陣………. ………………..45
圖5-5 COVID-19對生活與消費模式變化之因果圖 ………………………..50
圖5-6總和矩陣標準化(ANP處理) ………. …………………………………51
圖5-7 ANP未加權之超矩陣 ……...………………………………………….52
圖5-8 ANP 超級矩陣之準則權重……… ……………………………………52











參考文獻
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『Yahoo奇摩』,2020年8月2日,https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/us/q?stock_id=%5EDJI.
『中華民國統計資訊網』 2020年8月5日,https://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4.
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三、日文文獻:
伊神正貫,伊藤裕子,林和弘,重茂浩美,小柴等,『COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2
に関する研究の概況─ 2020 年4 月時点の論文出版等の国際的なデータからの考察』(文部科学省科学技術・学術政策研究所2020)。


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