(3.237.178.91) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/03/02 22:45
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果

詳目顯示:::

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:古乙辰
研究生(外文):Ku, Yi-Chen
論文名稱:天氣對保險購買行為之影響分析
論文名稱(外文):Analysis of Weather Effect in Behavioral Insurance
指導教授:彭金隆彭金隆引用關係
指導教授(外文):Peng, Jin-Lung
口試委員:彭金隆王儷玲石百達
口試日期:2020-06-30
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:風險管理與保險學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:風險管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2020
畢業學年度:108
語文別:中文
論文頁數:46
中文關鍵詞:天氣效應日照時數行為保險情緒變數
外文關鍵詞:weather effectsunshine effectbehavioral insurancemood
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:116
  • 評分評分:系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔
  • 下載下載:38
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
行為財務學主張天氣對於投資人情緒與風險判斷有顯著影響,天氣會影響消費者的心情與情緒,進而影響消費者對風險的偏好與判斷,根據文獻指出晴朗的天氣與樂觀的情緒有關,會使消費者增加對風險的偏好,此即「陽光效應」。本文主要探討保險是否也會受到天氣影響而產生天氣效應,天氣是否影響要保人情緒,進而影響風險偏好而反映在保障額度的選擇上,以驗證陽光效應是否一樣存在與於保險消費行為中。

本文以回歸模型檢定某壽險公司實際投保2015-2019年間的傷害保險資料,分析保戶投保金額與天氣因子之間的關係。行為財務文獻發現天氣越好,導致越樂觀也越積極投資的「陽光效應」,但實證結果顯示保險交易中,則存在天氣越不好,導致情緒低落風險意識提高投保更高保險金額的行為。由於陽光此時與保險金額之間為反向關係,為避免混淆,本文將此陽光對保險金額之影響稱為「烏雲效應」。同時文中也將天氣資料進行分群並連結至要保人的情緒,分別探討在該情境下要保人對於陽光以及其他不同天氣因子的反應。

根據本文的實證結果,未來保險公司在銷售商品時,建議可以針對不同的情境來因應消費者不同的情緒,並根據陽光及其他天氣因子的差異來調整行銷策略。
Articles in behavioral finance state that weather has a significant impact on investors’ sentiment and risk judgment, and that nice weather is related to optimistic sentiment. Motivated by weather effect in behavioral finance, we examined the relationship between sunshine and the insurance amount purchased by policy holder.

We used the ordinary least squares regression to analyze the impact of weather on the insured's risk preference, as well as the role of sunlight effect in insurance. The data is from one of the top five life insurance companies, from 2015 to 2019. Compared to sunshine effect in behavioral finance, sunshine has an inverse relationship with the insurance amount. In order to avoid confusion, we refer to the effect of sunshine on the insurance amount as "cloud effect". Results showed that cloud effect existed in some circumstances such as the weather that made people feel down or bright. We also grouped the weather data and linked to the mood of the policy holders, to conduct further discussion of cloud effect and mood effect.

According to the empirical results of this article, we suggest that insurance companies can respond to different emotions of consumers according to different weather situations, and adjust marketing strategies based on sunshine or cloud and other weather factors.
第一章 緒論 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節 心情與風險判斷的關係 4
第二節 天氣與心情的關係 5
第三節 天氣、心情與風險判斷的關係 6
第四節 天氣對保險行為的影響 7
第三章 研究設計 9
第一節 資料蒐集 9
第二節 天氣與保險金額實證模型 10
第三節 天氣類型對保險購買之驗證 14
第四節 樂觀與悲觀情緒對保險金額影響 15
第四章 實證結果 17
第一節 天氣與保險金額實證模型結果 17
第二節 天氣類型分類之檢定結果 24
第三節 情緒變數與保險金額實證模型 31
第四節 實證結果統整 36
第五章 結論與建議 37
第一節 研究結論 37
第二節 建議 39
參考文獻 41
附錄 45
一、中文部分
王韻怡、池祥萱、周冠男 (2016)。行為財務學文獻回顧與展望:台灣市場之研究。經濟論文叢刊,44(1),1-55。
周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、龔怡霖(2019)。行為財務學:文獻回顧與展望。證券市場發展季刊,14(2),1-47。
郭敏華、李謙(2005)。陽光影響投資情緒?以臺灣股票市場為例。臺灣金融財務季刊,6(2),35-51。
曾郁仁、王儷玲、何素蘭(1999)。風險趨避程度增加對市場保險與自我保險的需求分析。風險管理學報,1(2),53-64。

二、英文部分
Bagozzi, P., Gopinath, M. & Nyer, U., (1999), “The role of emotions in marketing”, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 27(2), 184‐206.
Bassi, A., Colacito, R., & Fulghieri, P., (2013), “’O sole mio: An experimental analysis of weather and risk attitudes in financial decisions”, Review of Financial Studies, 26(7), 1824-1852.
Bless, H., Clore, L., Schwarz, N., Golisano, V., Rabe, C., & Wolk, M., (1996), “Mood and the use of scripts: Does a happy mood really lead to mindlessness?”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 665-679.
Brown, G., & Cliff, M., (2004), “Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
Brown, G., & Cliff, M., (2005), “Investor sentiment and asset valuation”, Journal of Business, 78(2), 405-440.
Cao, M. & Wei, J., (2001), Stock Market Returns: A Temperature Anomaly, Working paper, University of Toronto.
Clore, G., & Parrott, W., (1991), In Emotion and social judgments. Ed. J. P. Forgas. Oxford: Pergamon Press.
Croson, R., & Sundali, J., (2005), “The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 30, 195-209.
Goetzmann, W., & Zhu, N., (2005), “Rain or shine: Where is the weather effect?”, European Financial Management, 11(5), 559-578.
Goetzmann, W., Kim, D., Kumar, A., & Wang, Q., (2015), “Weather-induced mood, institutional investors, and stock returns”, Review of Financial Studies, 28(1), 73-111
Hirshleifer, D., (2001), “Investor psychology and asset pricing”, Journal of Finance, 56 (4), 1533-1598.
Hirshleifer, D., & Shumway, T., (2003), “Good day sunshine: Stock returns and the weather”, Journal of Finance, 55 (3), 1009-1032.
Kamstra, J., Kramer, A., & Levi, D., (2003), “Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle”, American Economic Review, 93 (1), 324-343.
Kamstra, J., Kramer, A., & Levi, D., (2000), “Losing sleep at the market: the daylight-savings anomaly”, American Economic Review, 90 (4), 1000-1005.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A., (1979), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
Leinweber, J., (2007), “Stupid Data Miner Tricks: Overfitting the S&P 500”, Journal of Investing, 16, 15-22.
Levy, O., & Galili, I., (2008), “Stock purchase and the weather: individual differences”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 67(3), 755-767
Loughran, T., & Schultz, P., (2004), “Weather, stock returns, and the impact of localized trading behavior”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39, 343-364.
Rind, B., (1996), “Effects of beliefs about weather conditions on tipping”, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 26, 137-147.
Rosenthal, D., (2005), Consciousness and mind. Oxford University Press.
Sanders, L., & Brizzolara, S., (1982), “Relationships between weather and mood”, Journal of General Psychology, 107, 155-171.
Saunders, L., (1993), “Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather”, The American Economic Review, 83(5), 1337-1345.
Schwarz, N., & Clore, L., (1983), “Mood, misattribution, and judgments of well-being: Informative and directive functions of affective states”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 513-536.
Thaler, R., (1985), “Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice”, Journal of Marketing Science, 4, 199-214.
Wilson, T., & Schooler, J., (1991), “Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decision”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 181-192.
Yuan, K., Zheng, L., & Zhu, Q., (2006), “Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 13, 1-23.
連結至畢業學校之論文網頁點我開啟連結
註: 此連結為研究生畢業學校所提供,不一定有電子全文可供下載,若連結有誤,請點選上方之〝勘誤回報〞功能,我們會盡快修正,謝謝!
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
系統版面圖檔 系統版面圖檔