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研究生:游柏祥
研究生(外文):Yu, Po-Hsiang
論文名稱:管理當局預測修正對於供應鏈成員資本支出的影響
論文名稱(外文):The Effect of Forecast Revision on Capital Investment along the Supply Chain
指導教授:金成隆金成隆引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chin, Chen-Lung
口試委員:陳宇紳林修葳郭佳瑋陳育成
口試委員(外文):Chen, Yu-ShenLin, Hsiou-WeiKuo, Chia-WeiChen, Yu-Cheng
口試日期:2019-12-19
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:會計學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2019
畢業學年度:108
語文別:英文
論文頁數:74
中文關鍵詞:供應鏈資本支出長鞭效應預測修正
外文關鍵詞:supply chaincapital investmentbullwhip effectforecast revision
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Using a 3-tier supply chain structure (i.e., upstream, midstream and downstream firms), this paper investigates the effect of management earnings forecast revision on capital investment decisions along the supply chain. The bullwhip effect indicates that when demand information passes up through each site along the supply chain, it leads to a greater variance in demand for supply chain members further away from the downstream firm. By using upward forecast revision at the downstream site as a positive signal in the product demand, I predict and document a positive association between the downstream firm’s upward management earnings forecast revision and the capital investment at the upstream firm and that the extent to which the upstream invests in the capital investment outlays surpasses that made by the midstream firm. Further analyses demonstrate the positive effect of the downstream firm’s management earnings forecast revision on the capital investment at the upstream firm and that greater capital expenditure at the upstream firm relative to the midstream firm prevails under higher economic policy uncertainty, both during expansion (rather than contraction) periods and for supply chain members with lower bargaining power, more volatile demand uncertainty and order backlog. Overall, these results seem to suggest an uptick in forecast revision at the downstream site, leading to a swing in capital investment at the upstream site.
Abstract i
Table of Contents ii
List of Tables iv
1. Introduction 1
2. Literature Review 11
2.1 Bullwhip Effect 11
2.2 The Implications of Management Earnings Forecast 15
2.3 The Effect of Customers’ Behaviors and Characteristics on Suppliers 17
2.4 Investment Issues Along the Supply Chain 19
2.5 Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment 25
3. Hypothesis Development 28
3.1 H1- The Effect of Earnings Forecast Revision at the Downstream Firm on Investment Decisions of the Upstream Firm 28
3.2 H2- Moderating Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty 32
4. Research Design 35
4.1 Data 35
4.2 Research Design-H1 36
4.3 Research Design-H2 38
5. Empirical Results 40
5.1 Descriptive Statistics 40
5.2 Correlation Matrix 41
5.3 Results- H1 41
5.4 Results- H2 43
6. Further Analyses: 45
6.1 The Moderating Effect of Business Cycle 45
6.2 The Moderating Effect of Demand Predictability 46
6.3 The Moderating Effect of Order Backlog 48
6.4 R&D Investment 49
6.5 Relative Bargain Power 50
6.6 Robustness Checks 52
6.6.1 Considering Economic Uncertainty and Investment Opportunities 52
6.6.2 Dichotomous Variable for Upward Forecast Revision 52
7. Conclusion 53
Appendix A-Variable Definitions 55
References 69
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