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研究生:陳人瑋
研究生(外文):Ren-WeiChen
論文名稱:考量道路中斷與多車種的人道主義後勤預先定位問題
論文名稱(外文):Pre-positioning of Relief Inventories in Humanitarian Logistics Considering Network Risk and Heterogeneous Vehicle
指導教授:張秀雲張秀雲引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shiow-Yun Chang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:工業與資訊管理學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2020
畢業學年度:108
語文別:中文
論文頁數:44
中文關鍵詞:人道主義後勤預先定位分配計畫
外文關鍵詞:Humanitarian Logisticspre-positioningdelivering plan
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隨著科技改革帶來的人口大量成長以及全球性的都市化趨勢,土地利用與對環境造成的壓力與日俱增,過去幾十年來,全球重大災害的影響以及規模日漸加劇,無論是經濟上甚至是生命安全都帶來無法抹滅的損失。
現代科技雖然仍尚未能做到完全避免災難發生,但是做到充足的災前準備策略以及制訂災後的應對措施,對於減少災難產生的影響是有幫助的。在災前的準備階段,預先儲存災後需要的緊急物品並且選擇適合的儲備位置,可以減少災後可能的物資短缺所造成的額外危機以及恐慌;在災後則需要規劃運送車隊的路線以及當道路因為災難損壞時的運輸備案,以期能快速的將物資送往到災區的所需人們手中。非營利類型的救濟組織以及相關的政府機構,對於預算的限制可能相對捉襟見肘,因此在能滿足需求下如何盡可能的壓低成本,就成了考慮的目標之一。
本研究為災前整備及災後應變根據各災區需求點的需求量、不同供應商提供的物品價格、可能的道路風險,建立倉庫預選位置以及多車輛的分配問題模型,並考慮相關的成本,包含了建立設施的固定成本、不同車種的運輸成本、庫存成本等。
最後透過模擬不同規模的例題,與未設置設施的模型進行比較,觀察預先定位設施以及庫存對人道主義後勤的影響。可以發現,在本研究使用的數學模型下,在不同規模的例題中皆能發輝預先庫存的優勢,有效的降低成本並且快速進行對災區的分配任務。在敏感度分析中,進行了預估需求與實際需求之間變異性精確度以及平均需求的準確度分析,觀察到兩種模型在平均需求的準確度不佳時,對於成本的變化是較顯著的,在事先評估時應當更著重於準確度的加強;同時,也進行了對於不同災難規模帶來不同的道路中斷機率分析,機率上升所帶來的影響會逐漸趨緩。
With the massive population growth brought about by technological reforms and the global trend of urbanization, the impact and scale of major global disasters have intensified over the past few decades. Both economy and even the safety of life has caused losses. Although modern technology has not yet been able to completely avoid disasters, adequate pre-disaster preparedness strategies and formulate post-disaster response measures are still helpful to reduce the impact of disasters. Before a disaster, we choose a suitable storage location to store the emergency items needed after the disaster to reduce the possibility of material shortages (pre-positioning stage). After a disaster, it is necessary to plan the route to transport the materials to the people in the disaster area quickly (deliver stage). Relief organizations and related government agencies may have stretch budget, so how to reduce costs as much as possible while meeting demand has become one of the objectives. We proposed a mixed integer programming model for pre-positioning stage and deliver stage respectively, then compared them with the model that without pre-positioning. The results show that pre-positioning and inventory can effectively reduce total cost, and quickly deliver material to disaster areas. Finally, in the sensitivity analysis, we analyzed the accuracy of the estimated demand and different road interruption probabilities.
摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
致謝 v
目錄 vi
圖目錄viii
表目錄 ix
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究範圍與限制 2
1.4 研究流程與架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 現代災難管理 5
2.2 人道主義後勤與預先定位 7
2.3 救濟設施選址問題 10
2.4 道路風險與分配計畫 11
2.5 小結 12
第三章 研究方法 13
3.1 問題描述 13
3.2 研究假設與符號定義 14
3.2.1 研究假設 14
3.2.2 符號定義 15
3.3 數學模型 18
3.3.1 預先定位模型 18
3.3.2 應變分配模型 21
3.4 小結 24
第四章 數據分析 25
4.1 參數設定 25
4.2 模型測試 27
4.3 敏感度分析 35
4.4 小結 38
第五章 結論 39
5.1 研究結論 39
5.2 未來研究方向 40
參考文獻 42
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