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研究生:吳雙
研究生(外文):ShuangWu
論文名稱:氣候對產業的影響-以臺灣1982-2016年為例
論文名稱(外文):The impact of climate on industries-the case of Taiwan from 1982 to 2016
指導教授:郭彥廉郭彥廉引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yen-Lien Kuo
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2020
畢業學年度:108
語文別:英文
論文頁數:45
中文關鍵詞:產業附加價值溫度降水固定資本形成能源使用家庭支出
外文關鍵詞:Industry value addedtemperatureprecipitationfixed capital formationenergy usehousehold expenditure
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本研究使用臺灣過去的氣候與經濟資料探討氣候對各產業的附加價值的影響。考量氣候對供給面和需求面的影響,從而分析氣候對臺灣產業帶來的直接和間接影響。其中包含七大產業,分別是:商業、社會及個人服務業、金融保險房地產與工商服務、水電燃氣業、製造業、營造業、運輸倉儲及通信業。數據來源於1982年到2016年的行政院主計處,經濟部能源局,大氣水文研究資料庫和中央氣象局的氣候年報。研究中使用了Lazo et al. (2011)提出的產業受需求和供給變化的雙重影響和Chou et al. (2006)的研究方法,將氣候研究與經濟研究相結合。在實證模型裏,從供應面控制各產業的固定資本形成和能源使用,從需求面控制家庭支出作為投入。將產業的氣候敏感性量化,以分析氣候因素的投入對各個產業帶來的影響。結果用最小平方法得出,天氣變數會對產業的產出產生一定程度的影響,透過需求面的變動和供應生產條件的變化,而影響到產出。降水對產業除了製造業都有相對直接的顯著影響,其中對天氣變化敏感性最高的是營造業;但降水量可以說主要是從供給面影響到產業生產活動的,多從反向影響到產出;同時氣候也從需求面間接對產業產生影響,比如降水量從需求面的增長透過家庭支出對產業的GDP帶去的正相關的顯著影響。
This study mainly discusses the impact of climate on industries from 1982 to 2016 in Taiwan. The study analyzes the direct and indirect impacts of climate on Taiwan industry from the perspectives of supply and demand. We obtain the data from CWB, Data Bank for Atmospheric Hydrology Research and Database of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. We follow the Lazo et al. (2011) thesis statement and Chou et al. (2006) method. In the empirical model, it controls fixed capital formation and energy use in various industries as input factors from the supply side. On the demand side, it controls household expenditure as the input factor. Then the industry's climate sensitivity is quantified to analyze the impact of climate input on each industry. The results show that weather variables have a certain degree of influence on the output of the industries, and indirectly affect the output through changes in the demand side and the supply by production conditions. Construction industry has the highest sensitivity to climate, and precipitation mainly affects industrial production activities from the supply side.
Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Motivation 1
1.2 Purpose 3
1.3 Overview of Economic Region 4
1.4 Structure 9
Chapter 2. Literature Review 10
2.1 Delphi method 10
2.2 Fieldwork study 11
2.3 Production function 12
2.4 Correlation Analysis Method 13
2.5 Economy-climate model 16
2.6 Literature Review Gap 18
Chapter 3. Materials and methods 19
3.1 Empirical model 19
3.2 Data sources & Data Usages 22
3.3 Definition of variables 25
3.4 Describe the statistics & correlation coefficients 27
Chapter 4. Empirical Results 31
4.1 Manufacturing Industry 32
4.2 Service Activities Industry 33
4.3 Commerce Industry 34
4.4 Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Remediation Activities Industry 35
4.5 Construction Industry 36
4.6 Transportation and Storage Industry 38
4.7 Financial and Insurance Activities Industry 39
Chapter 5. Conclusion & Suggestion 40
5.1 Originality 40
5.2 Conclusion 41
5.3 Deficiencies in research & Recommendations 42
References 43
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