臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究採用事件研究法探討美中貿易戰期間，當美國對來自中國商品主要採取共三波加徵關稅之宣告事件，對以出口為導向之美國服務業股價是否產生異常報酬，及對科技技術採行相關管制保護措施時，對自身高科技業之影響，並進一步利用迴歸分析，研究在一產業中擁有不同財務特性之公司是否存在顯著差異。最後利用一系列關稅宣告事件討論對服務業、高科技業及全產業之影響，以觀察其政策帶來的趨勢。
實證結果顯示貿易戰初期利用加徵關稅手段，短期上的確會為產業帶來或正或負的衝擊，須視實質關稅內容而定，而長期普遍來說不利其發展。高科技業相同地在初期亦歡迎採取出口管制措施以保護本土科技技術，而直至後期確定實施出口管制後，反而立即產生更大之負面影響，本研究將有助於分析在貿易戰前後期實施政策帶來的不同效果變化。

This study adopts the method of event study to investigate whether the export-oriented service industry in the United States will have abnormal returns when the United States announced to impose tariffs against China and whether the high-tech industry will experience an impact under the measures of export controls during US-China trade war periods. We further use regression analysis to examine whether there are significant differences in companies with different financial characteristics in an industry. Finally, we explore a series of tariff declaration events to discuss the effects on the service, high-tech, and the entire industry in the United States for observing the trends brought by the policies.
The empirical findings are that the additional tariffs in the early stage of the trade war have impacts on the industry in the short term regardless of positive or negative shocks, depending on the content of the tariffs; however, it is unfavorable for industry development in a long-term perspective. Meanwhile, the high-tech industry also welcomed the measures of export controls to protect the technologies in the early stage of the trade war; yet, it generated greater negative shocks immediately after the implementation of the controls was determined. This study will help us to analyze the different effects of policy implement between the early and later stages of the trade war.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
表目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究動機 2
1.3研究目的 4
1.4研究架構 6
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2.1關稅政策及其影響 7
2.2 貿易摩擦的起因 7
2.3歷史上之貿易戰 8
2.4 美中貿易戰 10
第三章 研究方法 14
3.1樣本蒐集與範圍 14
3.2事件日選取標準 14
3.3事件研究法 15
3.3.1 估計期及事件期設定 15
3.3.2市場模式 16
3.3.3 統計檢定量 18
3.4 橫斷面迴歸分析 18
3.5 相關係數檢定 19
第四章 實證分析及結果 20
4.1敘述統計 20
4.2實證分析與結果 20
4.2.1宣告關稅事件對美國服務業之影響 21
4.2.2出口管制事件對高科技業之影響 25
4.2.3一系列宣告關稅事件對各產業之影響 29
第五章 結論與建議 31
參考文獻 34

中文文獻
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