臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究研討營收預期宣告事件是否對台灣電子業上市公司股價產生異常報酬。將營收預期宣告事件依事件內容分為成長及衰退事件，檢驗成長事件和衰退事件是否分別產生正和負的異常報酬，並檢驗兩者是否具有顯著差異。接者，將營收預期宣告事件分為自願性預測事件及澄清媒體報導事件，分別檢驗是否具有異常報酬與是否具有顯著差異。最後將澄清媒體報導事件依營收預測期間分為月營收、季營收與年營收，檢視是否具即時性的月營收有較顯著之異常報酬。本研究以2014年至2018年台灣電子業上市公司營收預期訊息作為研究主體，運用事件研究法、變異數分析、t檢定進行分析，藉此闡述營收宣告具有資訊內涵、效率市場假說、資訊不對稱。經研究證實：
1. 營收預期宣告成長事件對電子業上市公司股價產生正的異常報酬；營收預期宣告衰退事件對電子業上市公司股價產生負的異常報酬。營收預期宣告衰退事件對電子業上市公司股價的影響較營預期宣告成長事件更為顯著。
2. 自願性預測成長和衰退事件對電子業上市公司並沒有皆對股價產生異常報酬，而澄清媒體報導成長和衰退事件對電子業上市公司分別對股價產生正和負的異常報酬。
3. 不論成長或衰退，澄清媒體報導對電子業上市公司股價的影響幅度較自願性預測事件更為顯著。
4. 澄清媒體報導成長月營收事件對電子業上市公司股價的影響並沒有較澄清媒體報導成長季營收、年營收事件更為顯著。

This study investigates whether the stock prices of publicly listing electronic companies in Taiwan will have abnormal returns during the announcements of revenue forecast. Second, the revenue forecast announcements are divided into voluntary forecast and media coverage clarification. We examine whether the stock prices of publicly listing electronic companies will have abnormal returns when voluntary forecast and media coverage clarification occurs. Third, we check whether there is significant difference between abnormal returns caused by monthly, quarterly, and annual revenue forecast. The results find:
1. The revenue forecast announcements will cause abnormal returns in publicly listing electronic companies in Taiwan. There is a significant difference between abnormal returns caused by the revenue forecast growth and decline announcements.
2. The revenue forecast announced by voluntary forecast doesn’t cause abnormal returns in publicly listing electronic companies. The revenue forecast announced by media coverage clarification causes abnormal returns in publicly listing electronic companies in Taiwan.
3. For both revenue growth and revenue decline forecast, there is a significant difference between abnormal returns extent of the voluntary forecast and the media coverage clarification announcements.
4. There isn’t a significant difference between abnormal returns caused by the monthly, quarterly and annual revenue forecast growth announcements.

致謝……………………………………………………………………………………………I
摘要…………………………………………………………………………………………II
Abstract……………………………………………………………………………III
目錄…………………………………………………………………………………………IV
圖目錄……………………………………………………………………………………VI
表目錄………………………………………………………………………………VIII
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………………1
1.1 研究背景與動機………………………………………………1
1.2 研究目的………………………………………………………………5
1.3 研究架構………………………………………………………………7
1.3.1 論文章節…………………………………………………………7
1.3.2 研究流程…………………………………………………………8
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………………9
2.1 營收資訊…………………………………………………………………9
2.2 財務預測…………………………………………………………………10
2.3 資訊不對稱理論…………………………………………………11
2.4 效率市場假說………………………………………………………12
2.5 事件日研究法………………………………………………………13
第三章 上市公司預測性相關規定……………………………14
　 3.1 自願性預測相關規定……………………………………14
　 3.2 澄清媒體報導相關規定………………………………14
第四章 研究方法………………………………………………………………16
4.1 研究假說………………………………………………………17
4.2 樣本說明………………………………………………………25
4.2.1樣本蒐集與範圍………………………………………………………25
4.2.2事件日選擇…………………………………………………………………28
4.3 實證模型……………………………………………………………………29
4.3.1事件日研究法……………………………………………………………29
4.3.2傳統t檢定…………………………………………………………………30
4.3.3橫斷面檢定法……………………………………………………………31
4.3.4符號檢定法…………………………………………………………………31
4.3.5 T檢定法……………………………………………………………………32
4.3.6變異數分析…………………………………………………………………32
第五章 實證結果………………………………………………………………37
5.1 敘述性統計……………………………………………37
5.2 實證結果…………………………………………………41
5.3 實證結果整理………………………………………70
5.3.1實證結果彙總…………………70
5.3.2實證結果分析…………………71
第六章 研究結論與建議…………………………………………………74
6.1 研究結論…………………………………………………74
6.2 管理意涵與研究建議…………………………75
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………………77
一、中文參考文獻……………………………………………77
二、英文參考文獻……………………………………………78
附錄一…………………………………………………………………………………………80
附錄二…………………………………………………………………………………………82
附錄三…………………………………………………………………………………………83
附錄四…………………………………………………………………………………………87

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