臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

航班延誤、取消、非正常異動等是困擾航空公司及旅客的一大難題，因航班班表規劃，當同一架飛機一天中執行連續航班任務時，若發生到達延誤和周轉時間的延長將直接影響下一航班的計劃起飛時間，如該航班的延誤擴散至下游航班，會進而導致更多的計劃航班延誤。本研究採用某亞洲航空公司2015年度以桃園機場為基地之航班運行狀態之歷史數據，篩選航班營運數最高的10個機場構建航機路線，並分析航班延誤之各類因素，結合專家知識透過貝氏網路模型進行建模，來預測航班延誤擴散之機率。研究結論發現，來機晚到為航班延誤擴散判別之關鍵性延誤因素，貝氏網路確實能建立相關預測模式，藉由交叉驗證方法可實證模型之有效性並校估改善模型。本研究之成果可供未來航空公司掌握航班延誤擴散之模型架構預測機率作為決策參考指標，用以提升航班準時率及班表穩健度。

Flight delays, cancellations, irregular operations, etc. are a major problem that plagues airlines and passengers. Due to flight schedule planning, when the same aircraft performs continuous flight tasks throughout the day, arrival delay and extended turnaround time will directly affect the scheduled departure time of the next flight, if the delay of that flight propagates to downstream flights, will in turn cause more scheduled flight delays. This research uses the historical data of the flight movement of an Asian airline based on Taoyuan International Airport in 2015, screens the 10 airports with the highest number of flight operations to construct aircraft routes, and analyzes various factors of flight delays. The network model is used to predict the probability of flight delay propagation. The results show that the late arrival of aircraft is the key delay factor for the identification of flight delay propagation. The Bayesian network can indeed establish a related prediction model. The effectiveness of the model can be verified and improved by cross-validation. Airlines can use the model structure of flight delay propagation to predict probability as reference indicator for decision-making, to improve flight punctuality and flight schedule robustness.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究範圍 3
1.4 研究流程與內容 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 航班延誤的類別與原因之相關文獻 5
2.2 航班延誤擴散及預測之相關文獻 8
第三章 研究方法 15
3.1 研究架構 15
3.2 航班運行狀態及延誤資料 16
3.3 航機網路構建篩選 17
3.4 分析方法 19
第四章 資料蒐集與基本統計分析 22
4.1 資料來源與蒐集整理 22
4.2 基本統計分析 22
第五章 模式推估與分析結果 31
5.1 模型建構 31
5.2 模型推估與結果分析 46
5.2.1 初步驗證 48
5.2.2 模型校估 51
5.2.3 改良模型分析 59
5.2.4 貝氏網路與C4.5決策樹模式比較分析 67
第六章 情境模擬分析 72
6.1 首段航班來機晚到延誤對次段航班來機晚到延誤之影響 72
6.2 地面周轉時間對次段航班來機晚到延誤之影響 77
第七章 結論與建議 83
7.1 結論 83
7.2 討論與建議 85
參考文獻 87
附錄一 89
附錄二 96

(一)中文文獻
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