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研究生:梁文馨
研究生(外文):Wen-Hsin Liang
論文名稱:臺灣毒品犯罪決定因素之探討:失業率之影響
指導教授:黃麗璇黃麗璇引用關係
指導教授(外文):Li-Hsuan Huang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文出版年:2020
畢業學年度:108
語文別:中文
論文頁數:88
中文關鍵詞:毒品犯罪失業率工具變數
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近年來,臺灣毒品犯罪之趨勢逐年增加,且縣市間存在明顯不同的毒品犯罪型態。本文利用「警政署統計查詢網」縣市panel資料,探討毒品犯罪之決定因素。以毒品四種級數以及犯罪刑責輕重區分毒品犯罪之類型;同時,特別考慮家庭結構與娛樂因素之效果。本文以最小平方法之固定效果模型(fixed-effect model)進行迴歸,並且採用工具變數(instrument variable)解決失業率與毒品犯罪間存在內生性問題,以兩階段最小平方法(two-stage least squares regression)進行迴歸分析。
實證結果顯示,失業率增加會使得第二三級毒品犯罪有增加之趨勢,但卻會使得第一級毒品犯罪減少。吾人猜測其原因可能為第一級毒品之價格較高,且鴉片類毒品(含海洛因、嗎啡、鴉片等第一級毒品)具有替代治療所致。此外,失業率之提高,也會使得罪刑較輕之毒品施用情況減少,但罪刑較重之毒品販賣變得較為嚴重。此外,各縣市單親與隔代教養家庭之比例增加對於毒品犯罪的效果並不相同。單親家庭占比上升時,會使得第一級毒品犯罪以及毒品之施用人數增加;而隔代教養家庭占比增長時,會使得第二三級毒品犯罪增加之外,也會使毒品成癮者較容易鋌而走險從事毒品之販賣。同時,舉辦大型音樂祭與越多的娛樂家數皆對於第一級毒品犯罪、毒品之施用有正向顯著影響,而娛樂家數增加亦對於毒品之販賣有同向之關係。
基於上述實證結果,本研究建議政府相關單位應加強注意單親家庭與隔代教養家庭中成員之心理狀況、經濟狀況,並適時給予協助與補貼。另可針對隔代教養家庭之祖父母開設文化、價值觀差異之課程,減少代間差距與增強溝通頻率。對於大型音樂祭之舉辦與娛樂產業之店家應加強附近巡邏並採取不定期之清查。此外,應對於上述各項活動之參與者與服務人員增加毒品危害與反毒之宣導。
In recent year, the trend of drug crime has arisen in Taiwan. This article uses the data from the website of the Statistics of Police Work, published by National Police Agency, Ministry of the Interior, to explore the determination of drug crimes in Taiwan. Causing habitual usage, abusive usage, and danger to the society are norms for categorizing drugs, and the drugs are classified into 4 categories. The punishment of category one is the most serious, and category four is the lightest. In this article, drug crime is categorized by drug classification and punishment, and focusing, in particular, on the factors of family structure and entertainment industry. The fixed-effect model is employed for empirical analysis. In addition, the two-stage least squares regression is adopted to deal with the endogeneity between unemployment rate and drug crime.
The empirical results show that an increase in unemployment rate raises the drug crime of category two and three, but decreases the drug crime of category one. The reason for this may be due to the fact that the drug price of category one is significantly higher than those of other categories, and there is detoxification for opioid. In addition, with increasing in unemployment rate, drug trafficking raises, while drug abuse decreases.
There are different impacts between the factors of family structure and drug crime. The increased percentage of single parent households may give rise to extending the drug crime of category one and drug abuse. The raised drug crime of category two and three and drug trafficking might also result from the enlarged percentage of grandparenting households. In terms of entertainment industry, the drug crime of category one and drug abuse may increase when holding a large musical festival or increase with entertainment revenues. The rising number of stores in entertainment industry also lead to drug trafficking.
Based on the empirical results, we suggest that the government authorities should pay more attention to the mental health and family financial of single parent and grandparenting families, assisting them properly. Moreover, setting up courses for grandparenting families to reduce their intergenerational gaps. Increasing police patrolling and irregular raids might suppress drug crime near the large musical festival and entertainment venues. The participants and service staffs over there ought to be informed about the harm of drugs.
第一章、緒論 1
第二章、文獻回顧 4
第三章、我國毒品犯罪之現況 10
3.1我國毒品犯罪之分類與刑責 10
3.2臺灣及各縣市毒品犯罪率之趨勢 --- 按毒品級數細分 11
3.3臺灣及各縣市毒品犯罪率之趨勢 --- 按毒品犯罪之刑責輕重區分 12
第四章、模型設定 20
4.1 基本模型 20
4.2實證策略 24
4.2.1計量方法 24
4.2.2以匯率和能源價格作為失業率工具變數之理論與實證 25
4.2.3家庭因素之進一步探討 30
4.2.4娛樂因素之進一步探討 31
第五章、實證結果分析 33
5.1 變數之基本統計量 33
5.2實證結果 36
5.2.1 整體毒品犯罪率 36
5.2.2 不同毒品級數之犯罪率 38
5.2.3刑罰較輕與刑罰較重之毒品犯罪 39
5.2.4小結 40
5.3 失業率對毒品犯罪之影響—2SLS實證模型 45
5.4家庭因素效果與娛樂因素效果之更進一步分析 48
5.4.1 家庭因素效果之探討 48
5.4.2 娛樂因素效果之探討 49
第六章、結論與討論 56
6.1 失業率、家庭因素與娛樂因素對毒品犯罪之影響 57
6.2 實證結果的政策建議 59
6.3 結論與研究限制 60
參考文獻 62
附錄一 68
附錄二 70
附錄三 72
附錄四 74
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