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研究生:徐詠淳
研究生(外文):HSU, YUNG-CHUN
論文名稱:應用模糊德爾菲法於旅館災害回復力評估指標體系建構之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study of the Establishment Regarding the Evaluation Index System for Hotel Disaster Resilence: Using FDM
指導教授:蔡忠宏蔡忠宏引用關係
指導教授(外文):TSAI, CHUNG-HUNG
口試委員:呂江泉陳玟妤
口試委員(外文):LU, CHIANG-CHUANCHEN, WEN-YU
口試日期:2020-06-30
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立屏東大學
系所名稱:休閒事業經營學系碩士班
學門:民生學門
學類:運動休閒及休閒管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2020
畢業學年度:108
語文別:中文
論文頁數:67
中文關鍵詞:旅館災害管理災害回復力模糊德爾菲法
外文關鍵詞:HotelDisaster ManagementDisaster ResilenceFuzzy Delphi Method
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  因氣候變遷全球暖化問題日益嚴重,極端氣候造成天災事件頻傳,許多的觀光產業因此受到影響,臺灣位處於亞熱帶季風區,颱風侵襲頻繁,每年颱風平均侵襲3.6次,觀光產業常因颱風侵襲導致嚴重災損,在2009年「莫拉克」颱風就曾造成南部地區嚴重淹水,多處觀光設施與飯店倒塌,也造成旅客受困。根據Tsai and Wang(2007)針對臺灣觀光產業天然災害統計分析資料顯示,觀光產業中又以旅館業受災害衝擊最為嚴重,當旅館不幸受災後如何快速復原成為重要且迫切的議題。因此本研究擬透過質性與量化研究,經由文獻回顧來探討旅館災害回復力相關可能影響因素並初步架構出旅館災害回復力評估指標體系,並針對12位專家學者做問卷發放,再透過模糊德爾菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method)進行指標篩選,並建立旅館災害回復力指標體系。前述災害回復力評估指標體系的建立,預計可提供包括政府部門、旅館資產管理人作為未來因應極端氣候下,制訂觀光投資與災後復甦策略之參考。
  Due to climate change, global warming is becoming more and more serious, and extreme weather causes natural disasters to spread frequently, many tourism industries have suffered major impacts. Taiwan is located in the subtropical monsoon region, it is struck by typhoons on average 3.6 times annually. Especially, the tourism industry is frequently severely damaged by typhoons. 2009 Typhoon Morakot have caused plain floods in southern of Taiwan; many tourists were trapped, at the same time, a lot of tourism facilities and restaurants were collapsed. According to Tsai and Wang’s (2007) statistical analysis of natural disasters in Taiwan's tourism industry, the tourism industry has been hit hardest by the disaster, and how to recover quickly after the hotel disaster has become an critical and urgent issue. Therefore, the present research utilized qualitative and quantitative methods, through literature review to explore the possible influencing factors of hotel disaster resilience and preliminary construction of a hotel disaster resilience assessment index system. And experts and scholars distributed to 12. Furthermore, using the Fuzzy Delphi Method to obtain the related indicator and established a hotel disaster resilience index system. The establishment of the aforementioned disaster resilience assessment index system is expected to provide a reference for government departments and hotel asset managers to formulate tourism investment and post-disaster recovery strategies in response to extreme weather in the future.
致謝 I
中文摘要 II
英文摘要 III
目錄 IV
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VI

第一章 緒論 1
 第一節 研究背景、動機與目的 1
 第二節 研究流程 2
第二章 文獻 3
 第一節 災害管理 3
  一、災害管理 3
 第二節 災害回復力 7
  一、災害回復力 7
  二、回復力之相關研究 10
第三章 研究方法 13
 第一節 模糊德爾菲法 13
第四章 回復力評估指標體系建立 16
 第一節 初擬旅館災害回復力構面與題項 16
 第二節 FDM專家問卷設計 21
 第三節 專家群組選擇 23
 第四節 問卷發放 25
 第五節 FDM問卷分析 25
 第六節 旅館災害回復力評估指標系確立 37
第五章 結論與建議 46
 第一節 研究結論 46
 第二節 研究建議 47
參考文獻 50
 第一節 中文文獻 50
 第二節 英文文獻 50
 第三節 網路資料 53
附錄 54
 附錄一 第一回模糊德爾菲法專家問卷 54
一、中文文獻
張有恆、徐村和、陳曉玲(1997)。航空站區位選擇評估程序之研究。運輸計畫季刊,26(1),37-68。
王文科(1999)。教育研究法。臺北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。
楊靜怡(2009)。颱洪災害回復力之評估:以台中市、台中縣龍井鄉與東勢鎮為例(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺北大學,臺北市。
吳杰穎(2007)。災害管理學辭典。臺北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。
鄭滄濱(2001)。軟體組織提昇人員能力之成熟度模糊評估模式(未出版之碩論文)。國立臺灣科技大學,臺北市。
張紹勳(2012)。模糊多準則評估法及統計。臺北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。
林炯明、徐勝一(2008)。自然災害風險研究的發展與挑戰。環境教育學刊,9,37-62。
林効賢、莊嘉坤(2013)。雲豹滅絕的省思-探討全球暖化與氣候變遷對台灣生態、觀光產業的衝擊與趨勢。休閒保健期刊,10(1),36 - 49。
陳昭宏(2001)。亞太港埠競爭力與核心能力指標之研究。運輸學刊,13,1-25。
陳文亮、鄭琬儒、江雅媚(2016)。運用模糊德爾菲法與感性工學探討心肺復甦輔助裝置產品造形之研究。樹德科技大學學報,18(1),53-70。
葉秀珍、陳昭榮(2007)。災害風險管理與其因應制度的探討。臺灣社會福利學刊,6(1),51-92。

二、英文文獻
Adler, M., & Ziglio, E. (1996). Gazing into the oracle: The Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health. London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers.
Adger, W. N. (2000). Social and ecological resilience: are they related?. Progress in human geography, 24(3), 347-364.
Alcántara-Ayala, I. (2002). Geomorphology, natural hazards, vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries. Geomorphology, 47(2-4), 107-124.
Andrachuk, M., & Smit, B. (2012). Community-based vulnerability assessment of Tuktoyaktuk, NWT, Canada to environmental and socio-economic changes. Regional Environmental Change, 12(4), 867-885.
Alcántara-Ayala, I. (2009). Disasters in Mexico and Central America: A little bit more than a century of natural hazards. Developments in Earth Surface Processes, 13, 75-97.
Alliance, R. (2007). Assessing resilience in social-ecological systems: a workbook for scientists. Resilience Alliance.
Brown, D. D., & Kulig, J. C. (1996). The concepts of resiliency: Theoretical lessons from community research. Health and Canadian Society, 4(1), 29-52.
Buckle, P. (2006). Assessing Social Resilience. Douglas, P. & David , M. J, Disaster resilience: An integrated approach(88-103).Springfield Illinois U.S.A
Couper, M. R. (1984). The Delphi technique: characteristics and sequence model. Advances in nursing science, 7(1), 72-77.
Comfort, L. (1999). Shared Risk: Complex Systems in Seismic Response Elsevier. New York, NY: Pergamon press.
Cutter, S. L., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C., Evans, E., Tate, E., & Webb, J.(2008). A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change, 18, 598-606.
Cutter, S. L., Burton, C. G., & Emrich, C. T. (2010). Disaster Resilience Indicators for Benchmarking Baseline Conditions. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 7(1), 1-22.
Dzeng, R. J., & Wen, K. S. (2005). Evaluating project teaming strategies for construction of Taipei 101 using resource-based theory. International Journal of Project Management, 23(6), 483-491.
Federal Emergency Management Association. (1996). Guide for all-hazard emergency operations planning (state and local guide). DIANE Publishing.
Faulkner, B., & Vikulov, S. (2001). Katherine washed out one day, back on track the next: a post-mortem of a tourism disaster. Tourism Management, 22(4), 331-344.
Freitag, M., & Winkler, I. (2001). Development of cooperation in regional networks: Mechanisms of coordination and support measures. Collaborative strategies and multi-organizational partnerships, 67-72.
Godschalk, D. R., & Brower, D. J. (1985). Mitigation strategies and integrated emergency management. Public Administration Review, 45, 64-71.
Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual review of ecology and systematics, 4(1), 1-23.
Ishikawa, A., Amagasa, M., Shiga, T., Tomizawa, G., Tatsuta, R., & Mieno, H.(1993). The max-min Delphi method and fuzzy Delphi method via fuzzy integration. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 55(3), 241-253.
Kuo, Y. F., & Chen, P. C. (2008). Constructing performance appraisal indicators for mobility of the service industries using Fuzzy Delphi Method. Expert systems with applications, 35(4), 1930-1939.
Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975).The Delphi Method : techniques and application. Massachusetts : Addison-Wesley Publishing Company,9-12.
Luthar, S. S., Cicchetti, D., & Becker, B. (2000). The construct of resilience: A critical evaluation and guidelines for future work. Child Development, 71(3), 543-562.
Lauer, C. S. (2002). The relevance of resilience. Modern Healthcare, 32(33), 29-31.
Liu, J., & Dietz, T., & Carpenter, S. R., & Alberti, M., & Folke, C., & Moran, E., Pell, A. N. …& Taylor, W. W. (2007). Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems, Science, 317(5844),1513-1516.
López-Marrero, T., & Tschakert, P. (2011). From theory to practice: building more resilient communities in flood-prone areas. Environment and Urbanization, 23(1), 229-249.
Mcloughlin,D.(1985) , A Framework for Integrated Emergency Management (165-172). Wiley on behalf of the American Society for Public Administration.
Martin, R., & Sunley, P. (2006). Path dependence and regional economic evolution. Journal of economic geography, 6(4), 395-437.
Pimm, S. L. (1984). The complexity and stability of ecosystems. Nature, 307, 321-326.
Parenté, F. J., & Anderson-Parenté, J. K. (1987). Delphi inquiry systems. Judgmental forecasting, 129-156.
Pfefferbaum, B. J., Reissman, D. B., Pfefferbaum, R. L., Klomp, R. W., & Gurwitch, R. H. (2008). Building resilience to mass trauma events. In Handbook of injury and violence prevention , 347-358. Boston, MA: Springer.
Quarantelli, E. L. (1989,9). Disaster assistance and socioeconomic recovery: Some Observations. Emergency Preparedness Canada Symposium held, Canada.
Razafindrabe, B. H. N., Parvin, G. A., Surjan, A., Takeuchi, Y., & Shaw, R. (2009). Climate Disaster Resilience: Focus on Coastal Urban Cities in Asia. Asian Journal of Environment and Disaster Management, 1(1), 101-116.
Timmerman, P. (1981). Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society. Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto. University of Toronto/Institute for Environmental Studies, Canada .
Tsai, C. H., & Wang, W. C. (2007). Catastrophic risk assessment and management for tourism industry. In The 2nd International Conference on Urban Disaster Reduction (2nd ICUDR) (p. 223).
United Nations (2004), Living with risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. New York, NY: United Nations Publications.
Urby, H., & McEntire, D. A. (2013). Applying public administration in emergency management: The importance of integrating management into disaster education. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 11(1), 39-60.
World Bank (2012). The World Bank Annual Report 2012. World Bank Publications.

三、網路資料
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2009).Terminology on DRR,檢索日期:2019年11月20日,取自:http://www.unisdr.org/
UNWTO E Library (2011). Tourism Towards 2030,檢索日期:2014年11月1日取自: http://www.e-unwto.org/content/w45127/?p=189899a5998f428f99f66ca0e17d2218
土石流防災資訊網,檢索日期:2020年05月01日,取自:https://246.swcb.gov.tw/v2016/Info/Disaster_adm

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