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研究生:李竑逸
研究生(外文):Lee, Hung-Yi
論文名稱:氣候變遷下離島土地調適環境效率評估之研究 以金門縣為例
論文名稱(外文):A Study on the Climate Change Assessment of Environmental Efficiency and Land Adaptation: The Case of Kinmen, Taiwan
指導教授:黃書偉黃書偉引用關係
指導教授(外文):Huang, Shu-Wei
口試委員:郭幸福張曜麟
口試委員(外文):Kuo, Hsing-FuChang, Yao-Lin
口試日期:2020-06-19
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立清華大學
系所名稱:環境與文化資源學系所
學門:環境保護學門
學類:環境資源學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2020
畢業學年度:108
語文別:中文
論文頁數:94
中文關鍵詞:氣候變遷土地調適環境脆弱度環境效率馬可夫鍊細胞自動機資料包絡分析
外文關鍵詞:Climate ChangeLand-adaptationEnvironmental Vulnerability IndexEnvironmental EfficiencyCellular Automata-MarkovData Envelopment Analysis
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根據聯合國環境規劃署(United Nations Environment Programme,簡稱UNEP)於2017年所發佈全球環境展望報告(GEO6:Global environmental outlook)指出,自1980年以來,氣候變遷帶來的衝擊造成諸如地表溫度上升、海平面上升、乾旱…(Alfieri等人,2017; Rao等人,2019;Vitousek等人,2017)等環境災害,尤其離島地區空間範疇較小,更不易對其土地調適能力進行規劃,故應對環境變遷之土地調適便成為離島地區重要規劃課題。
近年來,脆弱度(vulnerability)研究成為詮釋環境影響的核心。過去研究以脆弱度探討氣候變遷環境影響,多半探討單一時間之自然脆弱度,較難掌握複雜的環境衝擊關係,過去雖有研究利用環境脆弱度模擬未來土地使用變化及空間分布情形,提供離島地區土地使用規劃與管理政策之依據,然而其研究成果無法反映環境與各指標間之效益關係。因此,本研究就經濟學角度,計算環境影響指標進行效率評估,有效了解各項指標間效率值並掌握其與未來土地使用變化之關係。
基於上述原因,本研究以金門縣為研究地區,首先針對離島範疇提出重要脆弱度指標,將研究地區分割為20M×20M之網格(grid),並綜合考量過去國內外脆弱度分析與評估方法,運用地理資訊系統計算金門脆弱度情形,將計算結果投入細胞自動機(CA)模擬未來土地使用變遷,並藉由資料包絡分析(DEA)評估金門地區環境效率,藉此掌握離島各項環境轉變效率因子與土地調適間之關係,提供金門縣未來相關規劃依據,以因應氣候變遷之衝擊,提高整體其抗災能力。
According to the Global Environment Outlook (GEO6: Global environmental outlook) report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 2017, since 1980, the impact of climate change has caused Level rise, drought ... (Alfieri et al., 2017; Rao et al., 2019; Vitoousek et al., 2017) and other environmental disasters. In particular, the spatial scope of the offshore islands is relatively small, and it is more difficult to plan their capabilities of land adaptation. Therefore, land adaptation of environmental changes has become an important planning issue in the offshore islands.
In recent years, vulnerability research has become the core of interpreting environmental impacts (Miller et al., 2010). In the past studies, the environmental impacts of climate change were discussed in terms of vulnerability, and mostly explore the natural vulnerability of a single time. It is difficult to grasp the complex environmental impact relationship. Although some studies in the past that used environmental fragility to simulate the change of future land use and the condition of spatial distribution, it provides a basis for land use planning and management policies in the offshore islands. However, the research results cannot reflect the beneficial relationship between the environment and various indicators. Therefore, this study from economics perspective, calculate environmental impact indicators for efficiency assessment to effectively understand the efficiency values of each indicator and grasp its relationship with the change of future land use.
On the basis of the above reasons, the study takes the Kinmen as the research area. First, purpose 10 important vulnerability indicator and divide research area into the grid of 20M × 20M. It also comprehensively considers the analysis of vulnerability and the method of assessment domestic or foreign in the past. The Geographic Information System was used to calculate the vulnerability of Kinmen. The calculation results were put into a Cellular Automaton (CA) to simulate the changes of future land use, and the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used to evaluate the efficiency among various indicators. In this way, it can grasp the relationship between the various efficiency factors of environmental transformation and the land adaptation. Provide relevant future plan for Kinmen, in order to respond to the impact of climate change and improve its overall disaster resistance.
摘要
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機與目的1
第二節 研究內容與方法5
第三節 研究範疇8
第四節 研究流程9
第二章 文獻回顧與探討10
第一節 氣候變遷對離島之影響與衝擊10
第二節 脆弱度相關理論19
第三節 細胞自動機理論及相關研究26
第四節 資料包絡分析理論及相關研究33
第三章 研究設計 38
第一節 脆弱度指標計算與分析 38
第二節 細胞自動機與多重評估準則之結合43
第三節 土地調適之環境效率評估49
第四章 實證分析52
第一節 實證內容概述52
第二節 金門縣整體脆弱度計算54
第三節 土地使用變遷模擬63
第四節 環境轉變效率分析72
第五章 結論與建議83
第一節 研究結論83
第二節 研究建議87
第六章 參考文獻89
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