臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於時代進步，現今的人口過度聚集於都市中，導致都市持續增長，加速了都市化的發展並衍生出許多問題。快速的都市化現象使得都市中的土地需求日益迫切，加上公路網的便利及機動車的普及，都市人口也開始大幅向外發展，造成蔓延之現象。為了解決這些惡化的情況，如何在都市的發展過程中發揮「永續發展」的理念，並且找尋適當的都市規劃目標已成為各國關注的焦點。

都市的永續發展乃當前人類生活中重要的課題，其中，運輸之問題更因都市運輸需求不斷擾動之特性，需多加考量其未來情勢及策略。在都市規劃中，除了要考量都市發展之狀況，因應電腦及網路技術普及，許多理論及技術更是應運而生，也帶動了將資訊化應用於都市管理策略為主軸之概念，並透過蒐集巨量資料將都市發展中的時間、空間進行串聯，使都市規劃之洪流由原本需長期規劃之情況演變成短期且動態發展。另一方面，新形式的都市規劃已朝向即時性（in time）發展，相對於過去規劃的歷史多重視長期規劃，較少探討數分鐘或數小時城市中所發生的情況，因此，本研究希望將眼光放遠，透過探討即時、動態的城市變化，擬定出長遠且具延續性的目標。據此，本研究巨量資料為基礎，進一步將其應用於都市的永續運輸策略中。

首先，針對國內外相關文獻進行回顧與分析，歸納出符合未來城市的永續運輸指標，並以具有巨量資料之指標為優先考量，期望透過指標之巨量資料，率先利用深度學習（Deep Learning）方法並結合時間序列用以預測指標未來之趨勢狀況；其次，為使研究結果能實際應用於規劃決策中，考量動態環境需以不同策略因應，進一步以動態網路程序法（Dynamic Network Process）研擬出在動態時空變化下，未來城市永續運輸策略的優先順序評估；最後，透過前述方法所求得之優先順序，規劃及設計各項資源的分配，藉以發展出未來城市之運輸規劃及設計策略。本研究藉由擷取眾多具前瞻及創新之文獻，並以值得借鑑的先進國家之未來發展及永續目標為學習之對象，深入發掘及探討與時俱進之都市規劃新理論後，利用客觀且具新穎之研究方法創造出本研究主要之研究核心價值，以此作為臺灣發展未來城市之重要參考及評比指標依據。更期望藉由都市環境規劃和預測都市潛在運作規律以達到未來城市發展之最終目的。

The population is excessively increased and concentrated in the city as the results of continuous city growth which also accelerates the urban sprawl and causes many urbanization problems. The rapid urbanization has also made the land demand in the cities increasingly urgent. In the meantime, due to the reason that road network is more convenient and the increase of motor vehicles in a city, people in the urban also started to travel out of town and caused a phenomenon of urban spread. In order to solve these deteriorating situations in a city, how to utilize "sustainable development" in the process of urban development and find appropriate urban planning goals have been paid more attentions for different countries in the world.

The sustainable development of the city is an important issue in the current real world. Especially, the transportation problem is caused by the high demands of urban transportation. It is necessary to consider its future situation and strategy. In urban planning, in addition to considering the status of urban development, in response to the popularization of computer and network technologies nowadays, many theories and technologies such as information technology have been applied to urban management strategies. The big data connects the time and space in urban development, so that the torrent of urban planning has evolved from the situation that required long-term planning to short-term as well as dynamic development. Compared with traditional planning theories, more attention is paid to long-term planning strategies instead of, to minutes or hours. As a result, this study intends to take a long-term perspective and studies real-time and dynamic city changes to formulate long-term goals. Consequently, this study is utilizing big data for the application to urban sustainable transportation strategies.

First, review and analyze the relevant literature, summarize the sustainable transportation indicators that meet the future city, and take the indicators with big data as the first consideration. I hope that through the huge amounts of indicators, we will take the lead in using deep learning and combine time series are used to predict the future trend of the indicator; secondly, in order to the research results to be practically used in planning and decision-making, the dynamic environment needs to be dealt with by different strategies, and the dynamic network process is further used to develop the priority order assessment of future urban sustainable transportation strategies under dynamic spatiotemporal changes; finally, through the priority order obtained by the aforementioned method, the allocation of various resources is planned and designed to develop the transportation planning and design strategy of the future city.

In this study, by extracting many forward-looking and innovative literatures, and taking the future development and sustainable goals of advanced countries worthy of reference as the learning objects, after in-depth exploration and discussion of the new theory of urban planning that advances with the times, using objective and novel research methods to create the main research core value of this research, as an important reference and evaluation index basis for the development of future cities in Taiwan. It is also expected to achieve the ultimate goal of future urban development through urban environmental planning and forecasting the potential operation rules of the city.

目錄 I
圖目錄 II
表目錄 III
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍 7
第三節 研究方法 10
第四節 研究內容與流程 13
第二章 文獻回顧 15
第一節 未來城市相關文獻 15
第二節 都市永續運輸相關文獻 19
第三節 巨量資料相關文獻 29
第三章 研究方法與模式建構 41
第一節 時間序列分析 42
第二節 動態網路程序法 51
第三節 指標權重動態趨勢研擬 56
第四章 實證研究與分析 58
第一節 實證對象與範圍 58
第二節 未來城市之永續運輸評估指標歸納與篩選 63
第三節 未來城市之永續運輸評估指標動態趨勢分析 71
第四節 動態網路程序法之實證操作 78
第五節 未來城市之永續運輸指標權重動態趨勢研擬 86
第六節 擬定符合實證地區未來城市目標下之永續運輸規劃策略 90
第五章 結論與建議 98
第一節 結論 98
第二節 後續研究與建議 101
參考文獻 103
(一)中文文獻 103
(二)英文文獻 106
附錄A 動態網路程序法之運算過程 111

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