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研究生:陳建宇
研究生(外文):CHEN, CHIEN-YU
論文名稱:財富衝擊對婚姻、生育和死亡的影響
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of Wealth Shocks on Marriage, Fertility and Mortality
指導教授:簡錦漢簡錦漢引用關係王宜甲王宜甲引用關係
指導教授(外文):KAN, KAMHONWANG, YI-CHIA
口試委員:簡錦漢王宜甲程智男湯蕙瑄朱紀仰
口試委員(外文):KAN, KAMHONWANG, YI-CHIACHEN, CHIH-NANTANG, HUI-HSUANCHU, CHI-YANG
口試日期:2019-07-26
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2020
畢業學年度:108
語文別:中文
論文頁數:47
中文關鍵詞:財富衝擊機會中獎婚姻生育死亡
外文關鍵詞:wealth shockslotterymarriagefertilitymortality
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本文探討財富衝擊對人們的結婚機率、離婚機率、增添子女的機率,以及死亡機率的影響,資料來自2004–2013年台灣所得稅資料。本文以機會中獎之獎金充當財富衝擊。藉由中獎的隨機性,本文的實證分析克服了內生性問題,有助於我們檢視財富增加與人們行為的因果關係。為捕捉獎金的非線性效果,本文以羅吉斯迴歸估計獲得高額獎金相對於獲得小獎後的影響。這些結果的重要性在於,它能協助我們推測其他種類的財富衝擊所造成的後果。
我們發現,高額獎金得主的結婚和離婚機率顯著高於小獎者。這些結果顯示財富的增加會影響人們進入與維持婚姻的條件,進而改變婚姻狀態。我們也發現,獲得高額獎金後,男性增添子女的機率顯著低於小獎者、女性則無顯著差異,這顯示小孩對男性來說是劣等財。最後,高額獎金得主的死亡機率顯著高於小獎者,這結果很可能源於人們傾向在富裕後從事有害於健康的享樂活動。

This paper studies how wealth shocks, in the form of lottery winning, affect individuals’ marriage, divorce, fertility, and mortality outcomes using income tax records in Taiwan for the period 2004–2013. Due to the randomness of the lottery winning, we overcome the endogeneity problem and examine the causal relationship between an increase in wealth and socioeconomic outcomes. To capture the nonlinear effect of lottery winning, our estimations allow large prizes and small prizes to have different effects. The importance of this study is that it can help us predict the effect of other types of wealth shocks.
Results from Logit regressions show that, relative to a small prize, a large prize prompts single winners to get married and married winners to get divorced. It indicates that an increase in wealth encourages people to changes their marital status due to their improvement in match quality in the marriage market. We also find that men who receive large prizes have a significantly lower probability of having a child than those of small prize winners, while the difference for women is insignificant. It implies that children are inferior goods for men. Finally, large prize winners have a significantly higher probability of death than small prize winners. This is likely because individuals tend to engage in unhealthy activities or consumptions when they have more cash on hand.


中文摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
第壹章 緒論 1
第貳章 文獻回顧 2
一、財富 (所得) 衝擊與婚姻 2
二、財富 (所得) 衝擊與生育 3
三、財富衝擊、個人健康與死亡風險 3
第參章 資料處理與研究設計 5
一、機會中獎者與迴歸樣本 5
二、研究設計 7
(一) 計量模型與變數定義 7
(二) 異質性分析 9
三、變數基本統計量 10
(一) 人數與百分比 10
(二) 敘述統計 15
第肆章 實證結果 20
一、機會中獎對結婚機率的影響 20
二、機會中獎對離婚機率的影響 23
三、機會中獎對子女數增加機率的影響 25
四、機會中獎對死亡機率的影響 28
第伍章 結論 31
附錄 32
參考文獻 46
Andersson, Elvira, Petter Lundborg, and Johan Vikstrom. 2015. “Income Receipt and Mortality--Evidence from Swedish Public Sector Employees.” Journal of Public Economics 131 (November): 21–32.
Attanasio, Orazio P., and Hilary Williamson Hoynes. 2000. “Differential Mortality and Wealth Accumulation.” Journal of Human Resources 35 (1): 1–29.
Becker, Gary S., Elisabeth M. Landes, and Robert T. Michael. 1977. “An Economic Analysis of Marital Instability.” Journal of Political Economy 85 (6): 1141–87.
Black, Dan A., Natalia Kolesnikova, Seth G. Sanders, and Lowell J. Taylor. 2013. “Are Children ‘Normal’?” Review of Economics and Statistics 95 (1): 21–33.
Boertien, Diederik. 2012. “Jackpot? Gender Differences in the Effects of Lottery Wins on Separation.” Journal of Marriage & Family 74 (5): 1038–53.
Bridges, Sarah, and Richard Disney. 2016. “Household Finances, Income Shocks, and Family Separation in Britain.” Economic Inquiry 54 (1): 698–718.
Charles, Kerwin Kofi, and Melvin Stephens Jr. 2004. “Job Displacement, Disability, and Divorce.” Journal of Labor Economics 22 (2): 489–522.
Hankins, Scott, and Mark Hoekstra. 2011. “Lucky in Life, Unlucky in Love?” Journal of Human Resources 46 (2): 403–26.
Kim, Beomsoo, and Christopher J. Ruhm. 2012. “Inheritances, Health and Death.” Health Economics 21 (2): 127–44.
Lindahl, Mikael. 2005. “Estimating the Effect of Income on Health and Mortality Using Lottery Prizes as an Exogenous Source of Variation in Income.” Journal of Human Resources 40 (1): 144–68.
Lindo, Jason M. 2010. “Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks.” Journal of Human Resources 45 (2): 301–27.
Lovenheim, Michael F., and Kevin J. Mumford. 2013. “Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market.” Review of Economics and Statistics 95 (2): 464–75.
Singleton, Perry. 2012. “Insult to Injury: Disability, Earnings, and Divorce.” Journal of Human Resources 47 (4): 972–90.
van Kippersluis, Hans, and Titus J. Galama. 2014. “Wealth and Health Behavior: Testing the Concept of a Health Cost.” European Economic Review 72 (November): 197–220.

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