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研究生:吳彬玄
研究生(外文):Pin-Hsuan Wu
論文名稱:運用時間序列特徵與隨機森林演算法進行公共自行車場站流量預測之研究
論文名稱(外文):Using Time Series Features with Random Forest Algorithm to Predict Public Bike Stations of Traffic
指導教授:林偉林偉引用關係
口試委員:王丕中黃秋煌許蒼嶺王國禎
口試日期:2021-07-20
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:資訊工程學系所
學門:工程學門
學類:電資工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:40
中文關鍵詞:機器學習隨機森林YouBike
外文關鍵詞:Machine learningRandom ForestYouBike
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近年來節能減碳成為各國家發展的主體,為了降低排碳量和解決交通壅塞問題,公共自行車租賃系統的出現為的是搭配大眾運輸工具,成為「第一哩」與「最後一哩」的轉乘工具。YouBike於2009年3月試營運,開始於台北市信義區,最初提供11個站點與500輛公共自行車,由於規模較小,未能有效與大眾運輸工具做有效結合運用,導致周轉率不佳。2012年市政府與巨大機械正式簽約,預計在七年內建置163個站點,提供5350輛公共自行車,開啟了YouBike在公共自行車新的歷史。
由於YouBike初期規模較小,運量較低,不論在維護與調度上都能提供高品質的服務。隨著站點的擴張,要達成高品質的車輛維護,與較佳的借還車體驗,如何提供隨時有車借與隨時可還車的情境,場站流量問題成為本論文研究的重心。
本論文以YouBike為例,我們冀望藉由借還車資訊,搭配影響借還車時的天氣因素與空氣污染品質等搭配3種時間序列特徵,利用隨機森林演算法有效的推算出站點在各時段的流量需求。進而提供一線調度人員具有參考價值的站點車輛需求數據,在基本的天氣與空氣污染資訊輔助下,R2-Score可達到0.7左右,而加入時間序列特徵後的R2-Score可達到0.75,最終經過參數的調整,實驗結果顯示R2-Score可再提升5%-6%達到0.8。因此,無論新進人員或有經驗的調度人員都能透過此系統快速精準的掌握各站點在各時段的車輛需求。
In recent years, energy conservation and carbon reduction have become the mainstay of the development of various countries. In order to reduce carbon emissions and solve the problem of traffic congestion, the public bicycle rental system appeared to be used with public transportation, becoming the "first mile" and "last mile" transfer tools. YouBike started its trial operation in March 2009 and started in Xinyi District, Taipei City. It initially provided 11 stations and 500 public bicycles. Due to its small scale, it could not be effectively combined with public transportation, resulting in poor turnover. In 2012, the Taipei City Hall signed a contract with Giant Manufacturing Co. Ltd.. It is expected to build 163 sites and provide 5,350 public bicycles within seven years, opening YouBike's new history in public bicycles.
Due to the small scale of YouBike in the initial stage and the low volume of transportation, it can provide high-quality services in terms of maintenance and scheduling. With the expansion of the station, to achieve high-quality vehicle maintenance, and a better experience of borrowing and returning, how to provide a situation where the bike can be borrowed and returned at any time, the problem of station traffic has become the focus of this paper.
This paper takes YouBike as an example. We hope to use the information of the rental and return, with the weather factors and air pollution quality that affect the rental and return, with 3 kinds of time series features, and use the random forest algorithm to effectively calculate the traffic demand of bike station in time period. Furthermore, it provides reference value of vehicle demand data for front-line dispatchers. With the assistance of basic weather and air pollution information, the R2-Score can reach about 0.7, and the R2-Score after adding time series features can reach 0.75. The parameter adjustment, experimental results show that R2-Score can be increased by 5%-6% to 0.8. Therefore, both new recruits and experienced dispatchers can use this system to quickly and accurately grasp the vehicle needs of each station at each time.
摘要 i
Abstract ii
目次 iii
圖目錄 v
表目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 論文貢獻 3
1.3 論文架構 4
第二章 相關研究 5
2.1 公共自行車的演進 5
2.2 相關文獻研究與討論 6
第三章 研究方法 8
3.1 機器學習概述 8
3.2 機器學習的分類與迴歸 9
3.3 機器學習演算法 9
3.3.1 支持向量迴歸 (Support Vector Regression, SVR) 11
3.3.2 極限梯度提升 (eXtreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost) 12
3.3.3 隨機森林 (Random Forest, RF) 13
3.4 評估指標 17
3.4.1 均方誤差 (Mean Squared Error, MSE) 17
3.4.2 均方根誤差 (Root Mean Squared Error, RMSE) 18
3.4.3 平均絕對誤差 (Mean Absolute Error, MAE) 18
3.4.4 決定係數R2 (R-Square) 18
第四章 實驗結果與評估 20
4.1 流量預測區域選定 20
4.2 資料收集與預處理 21
4.3 場站借還資料分析 23
4.4 實驗設計 27
第五章 結論與未來展望 37
參考文獻 38
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