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研究生:蔡宛靜
研究生(外文):Wan-Ching Tsai
論文名稱:科技規模、經濟成長與能源消費之非線性關係 —以台灣為例
論文名稱(外文):Non-Linear Relationship between ICT Size, Economic Growth and Energy Demand:Evidence from Taiwan.
指導教授:廖述誼廖述誼引用關係
口試委員:曾偉君黃茂隆
口試日期:2021-07-20
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:應用經濟學系所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:55
中文關鍵詞:門檻模型科技規模經濟成長能源消費
外文關鍵詞:threshold modelICT sizeeconomic growthenergy demand
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不同於先前有關科技規模、經濟成長與能源消費任兩項之關聯之研究,本研究以實質國內生產毛額(RGDP)與科技規模(ICT_SCALE)依序作兩階段門檻模型來探討台灣1983年至2019年間之三項關聯之研究,並探討科技規模是否會造成能源需求與經濟成長關係的結構變化。

實證結果顯示, (1) 透過門檻模型檢驗,可將結果劃分為4個階段,且結果皆符合台灣經濟發展過程。(2) 能源使用與ICT產業對於台灣經濟成長具有結構性轉變,尤其能源使用的影響會因科技規模程度不同而產生不對稱結果。(3) 在不同實質國內生產毛額及低科技規模下,能源的節約效果及外部衝擊是導致能源使用成長率係數為負數主要原因。(4) 在低實質國內生產毛額下,能源使用成長率的影響程度大於高實質國內生產毛額;在高科技規模下,ICT產業成長率的影響程度高於低科技規模。(5) 能源與ICT產業在不同階段下各自扮演不同角色,但唯有ICT產業在不同時期皆對台灣經濟帶來正向貢獻。

經由上述實證結果,本研究建議政府持續推行有效之節能政策,並協助產業面對能源成本和生產成本之議題及輔導廠商技術及專利的開發並培養AI、雲端、巨量資料等等技術性人才。
Unlike previous papers on the relationship between ICT Size, economic growth and energy demand, this study uses a two-stage threshold model of real gross domestic product and ICT Size to examine the three relationships between 1983 and 2019 in Taiwan, and to investigate whether ICT Size causes structural changes in the relationship between energy demand and economic growth.

The empirical results show that (1) the results can be classified into four stages through the threshold model, and the results are consistent with the economic development process in Taiwan. (2) Energy demand and ICT industry have structural changes on Taiwan's economic growth, especially the impact of energy use has asymmetric results depending on the ICT size. (3) Under different real GDP and low ICT size, the energy-efficient effect and external shocks are the main reasons for the negative coefficient of energy demand growth. (4) The impact of energy demand growth rate is greater at low real GDP than at high real GDP, and the impact of ICT industry growth rate is greater at high ICT size than at low ICT size. (5) The energy and ICT industries play different roles at different stages, but only the ICT industry has contributed positively to Taiwan's economy in different periods.

Based on the above empirical results, this study suggests that the government should continue to implement effective energy saving policies and assist the industry to face the issues of energy cost and production cost, as well as to guide the development of technology and patents and cultivate technical talents in AI, cloud, and huge data, etc.
摘要 i
Abstract ii
目次 iii
表目次 iv
圖目次 iv
第一章 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 科技投資與經濟成長關聯性之相關文獻 6
第二節 科技投資與能源需求關聯性之相關文獻 9
第三節 經濟成長與能源消費之相關文獻 11
第三章 研究方法 13
第一節 單根檢定 14
第二節 兩部門模型之建立 16
第三節 門檻模型之建立 20
第四節 資料來源與變數設定及介紹 26
第四章 實證結果與分析 33
第一節 實證變數之敘述統計 33
第二節 單根檢定 34
第三節 線性迴歸分析及門檻效果檢定 35
第四節 實證結果 39
第五章 結論與建議 48
第一節 結論 48
第二節 建議 50
參考書目 51
一、中文部分 51
二、西文部分 51
一、中文部分
陳薇文,2009,「能源與總體經濟變數之關聯性探討-台灣的實證研究」,國立高雄應用科技大學金融資訊研究所學位論文
鄭清江,2005,「結構轉變、能源消費、與GDP-再探討台灣」,國立高雄第一科技大學金融營運所學位論文

二、西文部分
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