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研究生:王韋智
研究生(外文):Wang, Wei-Chih
論文名稱:霸權受害了嗎?美國的案例研究1990-2020
論文名稱(外文):Do Hegemons Suffer? The US Case Study 1990-2020
指導教授:楊仕樂楊仕樂引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yang, Shih-Yueh
口試委員:廖小娟唐欣維
口試委員(外文):Liao, Hsiao-ChuanTang, Hsin-Wei
口試日期:2021-04-12
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國防大學
系所名稱:戰略研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:國際事務學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:268
中文關鍵詞:美國霸權霸權穩定理論反恐戰爭美國總統大選公共財經濟全球化內政失調
外文關鍵詞:U.S. hegemonyHegemonic stability theoryWar on terrorismUS presidential electionPublic goodsEconomic globalizationInternal affairs disorders
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 下載下載:26
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
美國霸權因領導了世界而衰退,川普的當選代表此一觀點在美國國內相當受到支持。川普早在競選期間,就嚴厲抨擊美國歷來所推動的經濟全球化,已經嚴重傷害了美國自己的經濟,並在勝選就任後立即退出跨太平洋夥伴協定、修改北美自由貿易協定,並對許多貿易對象提高關稅。然而,美國如今的衰退,真的是因為領導世界嗎?美國身為霸權提供促進世界經濟運轉的公共財,就真的只是有利世界而讓美國自己受害嗎?本文主張,美國領導世界其實對自己也是有利的,只是因為美國投入了不必要的戰爭,同時內政失調未妥善分配經濟成長的果實,才導致國內產生反對聲浪。本文將呈現1990年至2020美國經濟與世界經濟的表現、美國投入全球反恐戰爭的錯誤,以及美國各項稅賦、社會安全、社會福利等政策的缺失,並以川普2016與2020年兩次總統大選的得票分布,來證明此一論點。
US as a hegemon suffered from its role as the world’s leader was a widely-supported view in the U.S. as Trump was elected as the President. During the campaign, Trump accused that Globalization promoted by the US had undermined the US own economy. Right after Trump assumed office, he ordered the withdrawal from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership; revised the North American Free Trade Agreement, and waged trade wars against many US partners. However, Is the US recession really the result of US global leadership? As a hegemon, the U.S. needs to provide public goods essential to the world economy; is this really beneficial only to the world at the expense of the US? This research argues that, in fact, world leadership is beneficial for the US. Unnecessary wars on terrorist and the failure of the social security system to properly redistribute the fruits of economic growth are the true reasons of US decline. In order to prove this argument, this research will present the performance of the US and the world economy from 1990 to 2020, the mistakes of the US foreign and domestic policies, and the comparison of 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections.
誌謝 i
摘要 iii
Abstract v
表目錄 x
圖目錄 xii
附錄 xv
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與問題 1
第二節 文獻回顧與探討 5
壹、霸權領導世界有利 7
貮、霸權領導世界有害 19
第三節 研究架構與方法 35
壹、章節安排 36
貮、研究限制 40
第二章 美國霸權的經濟表現 41
第一節 美國、世界、經濟合作暨發展組織各國的比較,1990-2020 41
第二節 美國、日本、德國的經濟表現與軍事支出比較 47
壹、日本軍費支出保持低點,對GDP占比持平於1% 47
貮、德國軍費支出增速持平,對GDP占比於冷戰後下修 51
第三章 美國外交與內政失策 55
第一節 錯誤的反恐戰爭 55
壹、反恐戰爭時間與空間不斷擴大且目標不明確 56
貳、反恐行動之人力、財力及國家資源不當消耗 76
第二節 產業結構變化與社會褔利制度失靈 90
壹、產業轉型拉大貧富差距 91
貳、稅制:有利財團不利中產階級 98
參、健康保險:國民納保比例仍不足 118
第四章 受益者與受害者:2016與2020年美國總統大選各州投票分析 131
第一節 美國貿易順、逆差造就各州主力產業受益及受害 131
壹、食品、飼料、飲品 133
貳、工業產品 133
參、資本財貨 133
肆、機動車輛產品 134
伍、消費財貨 134
第二節 2016年總統大選 139
壹、歐巴馬主政下各州貿易出口衰退比例驟升 139
貳、產業相對受害州大選選票相對流向共和黨 142
第三節 2020年總統大選 148
壹、各州出口前三大品項增長比例較歐巴馬任期高 148
貳、產業受害州選票仍持續流向共和黨 152
第五章 結論 157
第一節 研究發現 157
第二節 研究貢獻 159
第三節 未來展望 160
參考文獻 162
一、中文部分 162
二、英文部分 165
附錄 188

一、中文部分

(一)專書
秦亞青,1998。《霸權體系與國際衝突:美國在國際武裝衝突中的支持行為(1945-1988)》,上海人民出版社。
朴光姬、朴鍵一,2006。《中韓關係與東北亞經濟共同體》。北京:中國社會科學出版社。
胡川安,2019。《關鍵年代:意識形態、排外、極端局勢如何摧毀民主和走向戰爭》。臺北:聯經出版公司。

(二)專書譯著
Alan Greenspan著,陳儀譯,2014。《世界經濟的未來版圖:危機、人性,以及如何修正失靈的預測機制》(Random House Company through Bardon-Chinese Media Agency, Inc., USA)。臺北市:大塊文化。
Derek Chollet著,林添貴譯,2017。《美國該走的路》(The Grayhawk Agency and The Clegg Agency, Inc., USA)。新北市:八旗文化。
Gilpin. Robert著,鐘飛騰譯,2011。《跨國公司與美國霸權》。北京:東方出版社。
Micheal O’Sullivan著,李斯毅、楊文斌、劉維人、廖崇佑譯,2020。《多極世界衝擊:終結全球化,改變世界金融與權力中心的新變局》(The Levelling: What’s next after globalization)。臺北:聯經文化。
Robert J. Art著,郭樹勇譯,2005。《美國大戰略》(Cornell Studies in Security Affairs-Cornell University Press, Inc., USA)。北京市:北京大學出版社。
Stephen M. Walt著,林詠心譯,2019。《以善意鋪成的地獄》(The Grayhawk Agency and The Clegg Agency, Inc., USA)。臺北市:麥田出版社。

(三)期刊譯著
Peter Wood著,劉慶順譯,2017/10。〈透視中共東部戰區〉(Snapshot: China’s Eastern Theater Command),《國防譯粹》,第44卷10期。

(四)期刊論文
王宇,2004。〈日本匯率政策失敗所帶來的教訓-以“尼克森衝擊”和“廣場協議”為例〉,《國際經濟評論》,第1卷,頁45-47。
呂光耀,2018。〈川普主政下的美國霸權角色探討〉,《國防雜誌》,第33卷第1期,頁62。
許書豪,2011/7。〈試論金德伯格(Charles P. Kindleberger)的國際政治經濟學思想〉,《臺灣國際研究季刊》,第7卷第2期,頁130。
樊勇明,2000。《霸權穩定論的理論與政策》,《現代國際關係》,第9期,頁20-23。
黃琪軒,2016。〈資本專案自由化與金融安全的政治〉,《東北亞論壇》,第5期,頁28-39。

(五)研討會論文
李競,2006。<美國新霸權對全球公共管理的挑戰>,「湖北省行政管理學會2006年年會」研討會。湖北:湖北省湖北大學政法與公共管理學院。頁1211。
安國勝高宇輝、,2007。<單極霸權的憂思—析美元與美國霸權的擴張>,「世界經濟格局的變化與中國金融的發展和創新」研討會。四川成都:西南財經大學中國金融研究中心。頁61。
黃惠君,2008。《資本管制對經濟成長的影響》。臺南:成功大學經濟學系博士論文。
伍聰、趙然,2014。<政治實力在貨幣國際化中如何發揮作用?>,「International Monetary Institute」研討會。北京市:中國人民大學國際貨幣研究所;中國人民大學學校辦公室;首都經濟貿易大學金融學院。頁28-31。




(六)官方文件
白宮新聞秘書辦公室,2017/12/18。〈美國國家安全戰略綱要〉,《美國在台協會》,〈https://www.ait.org.tw/zhtw/white-house-fact-sheet-national-security-strategy-zh/〉。
中華民國中央銀行,2002/12。〈美國金融改革法案對Fed貨幣政策之影響-美國Dodd-Frank法案對系統性風險處理機制之影響〉,《出國報告》,第C10102864號,頁1-51。

(七)網際網路
2015/11/23。〈抓住機遇適時轉型,造就日本經濟崛起1946-1984〉,《鉅亨網新聞中心》,< https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/401771>。
2017/1/23。〈特朗普簽署行政命令決定美國退出TPP〉,《BBC NEWS 中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-38725338〉。
2018/3/23。〈川普簽署總統備忘錄將對中國徵收關稅〉,《美國之音》,〈https://www.voachinese.com/a/TRUMP-CHINA-TARIFF-20100522/4310655.html〉。
2019/6/27。〈美國總統大選-你應該知道的五大問題〉,《BBC News》 <https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-48768328>。
2019/10/30。〈72年以來最低!美國製造業產值佔美GDP比重僅11%〉,《國際財經》,< https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/2961839>。
2020/1/8。〈特朗普競選連任:解讀美國總統連任六大問題〉,《BBC NEWS 中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-48661357〉。
2020/3/2。〈美國反恐戰爭劃句號?盤點21世紀兩大戰事的得與失〉,《BBC》,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-51708297>。
陳建軍,2010/4。〈日本經濟"凋落"告訴我們什麼-美國用經濟手段打壓日本的教訓〉,《人民網日本頻道》,2010年4月20日,<http://japan.people.com.cn/35464/6956402.html>。
周世瑀,2012/11/18。〈歐巴馬勝選後的階級問題〉,《苦勞網》,〈https://www.coolloud.org.tw/node/71577〉。
簡嘉宏,2014/1/29。〈繞過國會施政-共和黨批歐巴馬無恥〉,《風傳媒》,〈https://www.storm.mg/article/26912〉。
林竣達,2017/5/4。〈川普會逆轉全球化嗎?〉,《台灣新社會知庫》,〈http://www.taiwansig.tw/index.php/%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A/%E5%85%A9%E5%B2%B8%E5%9C%8B%E9%9A%9B/7887-%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE%E6%9C%83%E9%80%86%E8%BD%89%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F〉,( Skocpol & Williamson, 2012; Zernike & Thee-brenan, 2010)。
包勒(Tim Bowler),2019/10/24。〈中美貿易戰籠罩-全球化更趨重要還是走向低谷〉,《BBC》,< https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-50163516>。
Trigkas Vasilis,2017/4/19。〈川普能否複製「尼克森衝擊」?〉,《每日頭條》,2017年4月19日,<https://kknews.cc/world/r9kbmzr.html>。
Jessica,2018/5/2。〈一張地圖看美國各州出口什麼〉,《NA Daily News》,< https://nadailynews.com/11696/>。
Aaron L. Friedberg,2018/6。〈中國任務:馬歇爾未能阻止的國共殊死之爭〉,《紐約時報中文網》, <https://cn.nytimes.com/culture/20180607/daniel-kurtz-phelan-china-mission/zh-hant/>。

二、英文部分

(一)專書
Albert O.Hirschman, Bernard, & Goodman, 1958. The Strategy of Economic Development. Yale University Press: New Haven, Conn.
Buder, Stanley, 2009. Capitalizing on change : a social history of American busines. University of North Carolina Press.
Bentley Michelle & Holland Jack, 2014. Obama’s Foreign Policy: Ending the War on Terror. London: Routledge.
Bentley Michelle & Holland Jack, 2019/7/29. The Obama Doctrine: A Legacy of Continuity in US Foreign Policy?. London: Routledge.
Campagna, A. S., 1991. The economic consequences of the Vietnam War. New York: Praeger.
Chalmers Johnson, 2004. The Sorrows of Empire- Militarism, Secrecy, and the End of the Republic . New York: Henry Holt.
Charles Wolf, Brian G. Chow, Gregory S. Jones and Scott Harold, 2011. China’s Expanding Role in Global Mergers and Acquisitions Markets. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.
Gilpin, Robert., 1981. War and Chang in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Gilpin, Robert., 1987. The political Economy of International Relations. Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press.
Hirschman, Albert O., 1945. National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. University of California Press: Berkeley.
Joshua S. Goldstein, 1988. Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. Yale University Press: New Haven, Conn.
Joseph S. Nye Jr., 2003. The paradox of American power: Why the world's only superpower can't go it alone. Oxford University Press.
Joseph S. Nye Jr., 2004. Soft power: The means to success in world politics. Public affairs.
Micheles. Dean, Vera., 1950. Europe and the United States. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Ning, Lutao., 2009. China's Rise in the World Information and Communication Technology Industry. New York: Routledge.
Robert Gilpin, 1981. War and Change in World Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Schedvin, C. B., & Kindelberger, Charles P., 1973. The World in Depression, 1929-1939. University of California Press: Berkeley.
Stephen Sestanovish, 2014. Maximalist: America in the World From Truman to Obama. New York:Knopf.
Wallerstein, Immanuel., 1980. The Modern World-system: II Mercantilism and the Consolidation of the European World-economy, 1600-1750. New York: Academic Press.

(二)期刊論文
Anderson, Kym., 2017. “Finishing Global Farm Trade Reform-Implications for developing countries,” University of Adelaide Press:Adelaidep, pp. 97-110.
Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. “The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 187–210.
Brinkley Douglas, 1997/spring. “Democratic Enlargement: The Clinton Doctrine,” Foreign Policy, No. 106, Spring, pp. 110-127.
Boggs, Carl. 2004. “US Grand Strategy and Its Contradictions,” New Political Science, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 271–291.
Beck, T., & Levine, R., 2004, “Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence,” Journal of Banking and Finance, No.28, pp. 423-442.
Boldt, David J., and Mary M. Kassis., 2004. “War Finance: Economic and Historic Lessons.” Social Studies, Vol. 95, No. 5, pp. 188–93.
Beschloss Michael, 2006. “Our Documents: 100 Milestone Documents From The National Archives,” Oxford University Press, pp 194–199.
Bernard, Andrew B., J. Bradford Jensen, and Peter K Schott., 2006. “Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants.” Journal of International Economics, pp 219-237.
Beckley, Michael., 2011/12. “China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure,” International Security, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 41-78.
Bloom Nicholas, Mirko Draca, and John Van Reenen, 2016. “Trade induced technical change? The impact of Chinese imports on innovation, IT and productivity,” The review of economic studies, 83.1, pp. 87-117Conybeare. John A. C., 1994/9. “The Portfolio Benefits of Free Riding in Military Alliances,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 38, No. 3, p. 405.
Christopher. Hobson, 2005. “A Forward Strategy of Freedom in the Middle East: US Democracy Promotion and the War on Terror,” Australian Journal of International Affairs, pp. 39–53.
Christian Dustmann, Fitzenberger Bernd, Schönberg Uta, and Spitz-Oener Alexandra, 2014. “From Sick Man of Europe to Economic Superstar: Germany's Resurgent Economy,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, No.1, pp. 167-188.
Costinot, Arnaud, &Andrés Rodríguez-Clare., 2018/ Spring “The US gains from trade: Valuation using the demand for foreign factor service,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 3-24.
Duncan Snidal, Jr., 1985/Autumn. “The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory,"International Organization, pp. 579-614.
Davis, Donald R., 1988/6. “Does European Unemployment Prop Up American Wages? National Labor Markets and Global Trade,” American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 478-494.
Dorn David, H. and Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. “The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States,” American Economic Review, pp. 1-47.
Demetriades, Panicos O. & Rousseau Peter L., 2015/8. “The changing face of financial development,” University of Leicester & Vanderbilt University-Economics Letters 141 Working Paper, No.15, pp. 1-11.
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Feenstra, Robert C, 1998. “Integration of trade and disintegration of production in the global economy,” The Journal of economic Perspectives 12.4, pp. 31-50.
Feenstra, Robert C., & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. “Ownership and Control in Outsourcing to China: Estimating the Property-Rights Theory of the Firm,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 120, No. 2, pp. 729-761.
Fred Kaplan, 2013/1-2. “The End of the Age of Petraeus: The Rise and Fall of Counterinsurgency,” Foreign Affairs, pp. 75-90.
Farrell, Henry, &Abraham L. Newman., 2019/Summer. “Weaponized Interdependence:How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion,” International security, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 42-79.
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Gowa, Joanne., 1989. “Rational Hegemons, Excludable Goods, and Small Groups: An Epitaph for Hegemonic Stability Theory? ,” World Politics, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 307-324.
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Goedde, Petra., 1999. “Villains to Victims: Fraternization and the Feminization of Germany, 1945–1947,” Diplomatic History, No.23.1, pp. 1-20.
Giang Ho and Paolo mauro, 2014/12. “「Rapid Growth in emerging Markets and Developing Economies : Now and forever」policy brief,” Peterson institute for international economics, pp. 1-12.
Hirakawa, Sukehiro., 1989. “Japan's Turn to the West,” The Cambridge History of Japan, No 5, pp. 432-498.
Hanson H. Gordon, 1998/1 “North American Economic Integration and Industry Location,"National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 1-36.Hobson, Christopher., 2005. “A Forward Strategy of Freedom in the Middle East: US Democracy Promotion and the War on Terror” Australian Journal of International Affairs, pp.39–53.
Hallams, Ellen & Benjamin Schreer., 2012. “Towards a 'Post-American' Alliance? NATO Burden-Sharing after Libya,"International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), Vol. 88, No. 2, pp. 313–327.
Hallans Ellen and Benjamin Schreer, 2012. “Towards a 'Post-American' Alliance? NATO Burden-Sharing after Libya,” International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), Vol. 88, No. 2, pp. 313-327.
Hanushek, Eric A., 2013. “Economic growth in developing countries: The role of human capital,” Economics of Education Review 37, pp. 204-212.
John A. C. Conybeare ,1994/12. “The Portfolio Benefits of Free Riding in Military Alliances,"International Studies Quarterly, Vol . 38, No. 3, pp. 405-419.
Keohane, Robert O., 1985/7. “After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy ,"Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 589-592.
Kinne, Brandon J., 1989. “Multilateral trade and militarized conflict: Centrality, openness, and asymmetry in the global trade network,” Journal of Politics, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 308-322.
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