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研究生:楊琬婷
論文名稱:經濟不確定性與金融發展
論文名稱(外文):Economic Uncertainty and Financial Development
指導教授:簡美瑟簡美瑟引用關係
指導教授(外文):CHIEN,MEI-SE
口試委員:簡美瑟張嘉倩許義忠
口試委員(外文):CHIEN,MEI-SECHANG,CHIA-CHIENHSU,YI-CHUNG
口試日期:2021-06-04
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄科技大學
系所名稱:金融資訊系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:77
中文關鍵詞:金融不確定性經濟政策不確定性金融發展一般動差法分量迴歸
外文關鍵詞:Financial UncertaintyEconomic Policy UncertaintyFinancial EevelopmentGeneralized Method of MomentsQuantile Regression
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:31
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  • 下載下載:3
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本研究主要探討經濟不確定性與金融發展之間的關聯,使用不同的金融層面(金融活動、深度和效率)來檢驗其影響,並透過主成分分析法(PCA)將經濟不確定分為全球金融不確定性與經濟政策不確定性。樣本期間從1999年到2018年,不包含金融市場之樣本國家為78個樣本國家,包含金融市場之樣本國家為30個。計量方法採用一般動差法(GMM)和分量迴歸來檢驗其影響,本文實證結果如下:第一、較高之金融機構不確定性,其對金融總發展與金融機構發展皆有顯著正向影響效果。第二、較高之金融市場不確定性,不論一國所得高低,其皆有利於金融總發展與金融市場發展,但對金融機構發展影響效果則因一國所得高低而有所不同。第三、不論所得高低,金融機構不確定性對金融發展活動、深度與效率三者多為正向影響,而金融市場不確定性有利金融市場深度與效率提高,但對金融市場活動影響不顯著。最後,各國政治經濟不確定則不利金融發展。
The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between economic uncertainty and financial development. To estimate the linkage, different financial dimensions, including financial activity, depth, and efficiency, are applied and principal component analysis (PCA) is excued to construct the composite index of economic uncertainty. The sample countries without the financial markets are 78 countries and the sample countries with the financial markets are 30 countries, and the sample period is from 1999 to 2018. The generalized method of moment (GMM) and quantile regression are employed to examine the effect. The empirical results are as follows: First, higher uncertainty of financial institutions could significantly rise financial development and financial institutions development. Second, no matter in high or low income countries, increasing financial markets uncertainty can raise both of overall financial development and financial markets development for both of, but the effect of the uncertainty on financial institutions development will be various in different income-level countries. Third, financial institutions uncertainty can cause positive impact on financial development activity, depth and efficiency in most cases, but financial markets uncertainty only can rise financial markets depth and efficiency, and the effect on financial markets activity is not significant. Finally, economic policy uncertainty is detrimental to financial development.
摘要 (i)
ABSTRACT (ii)
誌謝 (iii)
目錄 (iv)
表目錄 (v)
圖目錄 (vi)
第一章 緒論 (1)
第一節 研究動機與目的 (1)
第二節 研究架構 (2)
第二章 文獻回顧 (3)
第三章 研究方法 (6)
第一節 基礎理論模型 (6)
第二節 一般化動差法 (7)
第三節 分量迴歸 (8)
第四章 實證結果 (9)
第一節 實證資料來源與定義 (9)
第二節 金融機構與金融市場不確定指標建構 (12)
第三節 敘述性統計分析 (16)
第四節 一般動差法實證結果分析 (20)
第五節 分量迴歸實證結果分析 (35)
第六節 彙整估計結果 (46)
第五章 結論與建議 (50)
參考文獻 (51)
附錄 金融發展次指數之分量迴歸結果 (55)

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