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研究生:駱世豪
研究生(外文):Lo, Shih-How
論文名稱:人為影響對2009年莫拉克颱風極端降雨變化的歸因分析
論文名稱(外文):Attribution of the impact of anthropogenic effect on Morakot 2009 and associated rainfall extremes
指導教授:陳正達陳正達引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chen, Cheng-Ta
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺灣師範大學
系所名稱:地球科學系
學門:自然科學學門
學類:地球科學學類
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:143
中文關鍵詞:氣候變遷極端天氣偵測與歸因
外文關鍵詞:climate changeweather extremedetection and attribution
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  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
天氣與氣候極端事件到底是不是真的已經與過去發生的事件截然不同,一直是極具爭議性的問題。本研究針對最近發生的極端天氣事件(如熱帶氣旋)進行機率事件歸因研究,期望能克服模式模擬極端天氣與氣候事件的能力限制,同時也能夠透過獨特的數值實驗設計釐清並量化過去氣候變遷中人為的貢獻。本研究中主要分為三部分,(1)過去百年人為所造成的大氣與海洋變化的估算,運用第五階段耦合模式比較計劃(CMIP5)的氣候模式數值實驗資料庫,可以將人為排放溫室氣體與氣溶膠的作用與已知的氣候系統自然變動加以區分,同時也以不同模式的估算涵蓋其不確定性。(2)評估雲解析風暴模擬模式對於侵臺颱風與其伴隨降雨的模擬能力,了解其掌握大尺度背景環流、熱力結構以及地形對颱風影響的能力。(3)利用歷史情境和只有自然驅力情境的系集模擬,進一步展開人為因子對於颱風影響的量化評估。
運用機率事件歸因的統計分析,並以莫拉克颱風(2009)為例,研究發現過去百年人為所造成的氣候暖化,對於颱風路徑並沒有顯著性的影響,整體颱風強度指數的增加雖然只有 5%左右,但是統計上非常顯著。而伴隨颱風的極端強降雨分析顯示,對於區域強降雨超過 500 mm以上的極端事件發生機率,人為的影響非常可能(大於 90%)會使極端降雨機率增加至少 10%。若以相對於颱風中心的角度分析,極端降雨超過 2000 mm 以上的事件發生機率,人為的影響可能(大於 66%)會使極端降雨機率增加至少 10%,甚至也不排除有 10%的機會,人為的影響使極端降雨發生的風險增加了一倍。進一步透過颱風環流與熱力結構分析發現,極端降雨增加的原因不只來自於水氣的變化,上升氣流加強以及其與極端降雨增加的空間對應關係,顯示動力效應提供了額外的助力。
Whether or not we can found a distinct change in the recent weather and climate extremes that is detectable from natural variability is a rather controversial research topic. Our project aimed at using probabilistic event attribution framework to study anthropogenic impact on recent weather extremes (e.g. tropical cyclone). There are three important golds of this study. First is on the estimation of anthropogenic warming of the past century. It is evaluated by the difference from 20th century historical run with all forcing and natural forcing only experiments in the CMIP5 climate model data archive. The uncertainty of estimation would be quantified by the spread of multi-model ensemble. The second milestone is the detailed validation on whether a high-resolution regional model can reasonably simulate the evolution of a typhoon affecting Taiwan and the associated rainfall. Finally, the ensemble simulation of historical scenarios and natural only scenarios is used to quantify the impact of human factors on typhoons.
By applying the probabilistic event attribution statistics to the ensemble simulations of 2009 typhoon Morokat. We found that while the anthropogenic impact did not change the typhoon track systematically, and there is a significant increase of 5% on the intensity index of tropical cyclone. More importantly, our result suggests that there is a 10-15% increase in the risk for tropical cyclone rainfall extremes when anthropogenic forcing included in the Typhoon Morakot simulation. The increase is not only supported by the more abundance of water vapor. The additional dynamical impact from the enhancement of ascending motion corresponded well to the location of rainfall extreme increases.
第一章 前言 1
第二章 資料介紹與分析方法 8
2.1 颱風個案介紹 8
2.2 資料簡介 9
2.3 雲解析風暴模式 11
2.4 實驗設計 14
2.4.1 模式實驗設定 15
2.4.2 人為因子對颱風影響之實驗 17
2.5 颱風中心定位方法 19
2.6 降雨事件採樣方法 21
2.7 風險評估與歸因方法 22
第三章 七種分析與再分析資料模擬結果討論 25
3.1 七種分析與再分析資料的比對 25
3.2 模擬路徑的差異 27
3.3 模擬中心氣壓的差異 28
3.4 模擬降雨的差異 29
3.5 小結 29
第四章 初始及邊界場改進模擬實驗結果討論 31
4.1 颱風模擬路徑結果討論 32
4.2 中心最低氣壓模擬結果討論 34
4.3 降雨模擬結果討論 35
4.4 小結 36
第五章 不同初始時間及參數模擬實驗結果討論 39
5.1 不同初始時間實驗的颱風路徑與強度討論 40
5.2 不同初始時間實驗的臺灣地區極端降雨討論分析 41
5.3 不同參數設定實驗的路徑與颱風狀態討論 42
5.4 小結 43
第六章 人為因子對颱風強度與降雨影響之實驗結果討論 45
6.1 歷史颱風模擬的颱風中心位置和路徑結果分析 46
6.2 歷史颱風模擬的颱風中心最低氣壓和最大風速結果分析 48
6.3 歷史颱風模擬的颱風降雨結果分析 49
6.4 颱風在去除人為因子下的颱風路徑差異分析 51
6.5 颱風在去除人為因子下的颱風強度差異分析 52
6.6 在去除人為因子下的跟隨颱風降雨差異分析 55
6.7 在去除人為因子下的整場颱風降雨差異分析 57
6.8 在去除人為因子下的降雨機率差異分析 59
6.9 在去除人為因子下的整場颱風降雨FAR歸因分析 61
6.10 小結 64
第七章 結論 68
參考文獻 71
附表 78
附圖 80
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