臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

受全球暖化的影響，許多物種可能無法適應目前棲地的環境改變因而導致當地族群滅絕或向更適合的環境遷移，因此預測族群的變動是目前生態學急迫關切的課題之一。許多研究著重在預測個別物種分布受氣候變遷的影響，但忽略了物種不同遷移程度也可能影響物種間的交互作用網絡。台灣擁有從高海拔到低海拔的環境條件，物種將根據自身的棲位在合適的環境梯度上分佈，因此適合我們了解環境氣候的差異對於植群分佈的影響。本研究模擬氣候變遷對植群兩個面相的影響：當地原生族群受環境改變威脅的程度，及計入外來遷徙族群的群落整體改變。結果顯示，從原生地物種受威脅程度來說，低海拔地區(海拔 1,000 公尺以下)是較受威脅的地方，然而就整體改動而言，中海拔地區(海拔 1,000～2,800公尺)是改動最大的地方。而且，在高海拔地區(海拔2,800公尺以上)也須面臨一定程度的非生物逆境，以及部分中海拔物種上移所帶來的競爭。此兩種迥異結果源於大量低海拔物種相較於中海拔物種有更大規模的海拔垂直遷移，使低海拔原生物種消失程度較高，而中海拔植群將受到大量低海拔物種移入造成總體群落結構改變。物種共存網路分析證實此論點：由現有分布資料歸納出代表不同林相的植物群落，彼此間的分界在未來會變得更加模糊，尤其是低海拔與中海拔群落將有更多交疊。總結來說，雖然中海拔植群的未來分布受到非生物因子影響相對較小，但生物性因子可能使原生群落結構受到改變，限制當地原生種的生存空間。此外，極端天氣是必須被納入氣候變遷的討論中，從過去歷史氣候資料區的計算出的有較高頻的極端天氣事件的地區需要多加注意。

Under global warming, many species might be unable to adapt to the environmental changes, leading to extinction or migration. Predicting community changes is therefore an urgent issue. However, many studies focused on predicting the effects of climate change on individual species, ignoring that different magnitudes of climate-change-driven migration among species might affect their potential interaction. Given the limited geographical but wide altitudinal range, the island Taiwan is a suitable location to study the effects of differential altitudinal shift of species facing climate change. In this study, we modeled the impact of climate change on vegetation community from two aspects: the decline of local species and the overall community change after accounting for foreign migrating species. In terms of local species, regions in low altitude (below 1,000 m above sea level [asl]) are highly threatened. For overall community change, on the other hand, middle-altitude (1,000-2,800 m asl) mountains across Taiwan, has the highest community change. However, species at high altitudes (above 2,800 m asl) also face high abiotic stress, as well as competition from the upward shift of some mid-altitude species. Such discrepancy might result from the differential altitudinal migration of species: comparing to high-elevation species, those originally reside in low elevation have higher upward altitudinal shift, resulting in large local species decline in lower elevation and more immigrants causing overall community change in middle-altitude regions. This was supported by species co-existence network analyses: in the future, the boundaries among distinct vegetation community modules identified by their current co-existence become more obscure, especially between the modules originating from middle- and low-altitudes. Therefore, although the future distribution of middle-altitude species seems less affected by the change of abiotic climatic factors, such biotic factor of community structure disruption might restrict the living space available to local middle-altitude species. Furthermore, extreme weather must be considered in the discussion of climate change, and regions with high frequency of extreme weather events from historical climate data require more attention.

誌謝 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------i
摘要 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ii
Abstract --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------iii
Table of contents ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------v
Tables ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------vii
Figures ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------viii
Introduction -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1
Materials and Methods --------------------------------------------------------------------------7
Study area ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7
Vegetation data ------------------------------------------------------------------------------8
Climate data ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------9
Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) ------------------------------------------------10
Community change in the future --------------------------------------------------------13
Community change with specialist and generalist ------------------------------------15
Identifying and characterizing plant co-existence modules --------------------------16
The phylogenetic structure of co-existing modules -----------------------------------18
The alteration of community structure -------------------------------------------------19
Extreme weather ---------------------------------------------------------------------------20
Results ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------21
Species distribution modelling (SDM) -------------------------------------------------21
Patterns of local decline and overall community change across Taiwan----------22
Mismatch between local decline and overall community change caused by Differential altitudinal shifts -------------------------------------------------------------26
The properties of species-co-existence network --------------------------------------28
The alteration of community structure -------------------------------------------------31
Extreme weather ---------------------------------------------------------------------------32
Discussion -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------34
Novel approaches to investigate species’ fate -----------------------------------------34
Community change ------------------------------------------------------------------------38
Generalist & specialist --------------------------------------------------------------------45
Community restructuring-----------------------------------------------------------------46
Extreme weather ---------------------------------------------------------------------------48
Conclusion ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------49
Reference ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------50
Tables ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------60
Figures ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------66

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