臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

現今科技與醫療技術的不斷進步，使得人口老齡化成為了不可逆的全球趨勢。為了維持高齡化社會下的生活品質，人們開始重視退休後的財務規劃以期達到終身目標。然而，長壽風險及市場風險卻為退休帶來了艱難的挑戰，支出衝擊也將促使人們對於未來的退休計劃表現更添憂慮。因此，退休金提領在過去的數十年間一直為人們所熱烈討論的議題。
本文將建制一動態提領策略供退休計劃之選項，不僅可用於解決過去所面對的退休金相關問題，同時也能讓退休者享有更高的提領成功率及提領金額。該策略將以退休金賬戶的投資組合表現以及民眾的預期剩餘壽命作為模型考量，定期針對退休金提領率做出適當調整。與此同時也將根據不同的資產配置方法，模擬及比較出靜態提領策略及動態提領策略在各種情境下的表現。不僅如此，風險分擔也可以有效增加退休投資組合的壽命及成功率，故也將納入分享率至退休策略中作進一步的分析考量。
該實證結果顯示了動態提領策略的表現基本優於靜態提領策略。當市場表現不佳時，藉由降低實際退休金的提領來避免投資組合的過度消耗，同時也能夠滿足大部分退休者的終身提領需求。而當市場表現良好時，通過增加提領金額，即能達到退休資產的有效運用。

Due to technological and medical advancement nowadays, the aging population has become an irreversible global trend. In order to maintain the quality of life that works with longevity, people started to pay more attention to their retirement planning for reaching the ultimate lifetime goals. However, the combination of longevity risk and market risk might cause serious problems to their plans, spending shocks may lead to rising concerns on the future expectation. And so, the retirement withdrawal has been a heated discussion over the past few decades.
This paper develops a dynamic withdrawal strategy for retirement plans which aims to solve the recent problems and also allows retirees to improve the probability of retirement portfolio success while simultaneously increasing the average withdrawal rate. The strategy will take both portfolio performance and remaining life expectancy into account for making the periodic adjustment on retirement withdrawal rates. We then simulate and compare both static and dynamic withdrawal strategies under the same conditions for retirement, giving the full picture of overall performance. And the simulations are worked under different asset allocation strategies. Since the inclusion of risk pooling can further expand the retirement portfolio’s lifespan and success rate, we also put sharing rate into the analysis of retirement strategies.
The empirical results show that dynamic withdrawal strategies basically outperform the static withdrawal strategies. By lowering the actual withdrawal during a market downturn, it provides an effective way to prevent the retirement portfolio from over-depleted, making sure that the coverage is enough for most retirees. On the other hand, raising the total pension when the market goes well, increases the efficiency of retirement assets.

口試委員會審定書………………………………………………………………………………… i
誌謝………………………………………………………………………………………………… ii
中文摘要 …………………………………………………………………………………………… iii
Abstract …………………………………………………………………………………………… iv
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………………………… 1
1.1 研究背景與動機…………………………………………………………………… 1
1.2 研究目的…………………………………………………………………………… 6
1.3 研究內容與架構…………………………………………………………………… 7
第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………………………………… 9
第三章 數據與研究方法……………………………………………………………………13
3.1 研究數據……………………………………………………………………………13
3.2 研究樣本……………………………………………………………………………16
3.3 提領策略及資產配置模型…………………………………………………………17
3.4 模擬過程……………………………………………………………………………20
3.5 條件與假設…………………………………………………………………………21
第四章 實證分析……………………………………………………………………………23
4.1 投資組合的壽命表現………………………………………………………………23
4.2 投資組合成功率及提領率表現……………………………………………………32
4.3 目標期限與反向目標期限投資組合分析…………………………………………43
4.4 風險共擔分享率……………………………………………………………………46
4.5 平均薪資成長率提領依據…………………………………………………………52
第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………………………54
5.1 研究結論……………………………………………………………………………54
5.2 研究限制與建議……………………………………………………………………55
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………………………56
附錄…………………………………………………………………………………………………58

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