臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

研究背景與目的: 隨著近代趨勢的改變，世界各國包含亞洲地區國家多面臨少子化的問題，在傳統儒家文化的影響下，亞洲國家的婚姻與生育行為緊緊相扣，因此少子化尤其受關係型態改變的影響。過去許多研究發現心理健康與婚姻及關係組成有著顯著的相關性，但在探究心理健康與婚姻間的關係時，較少針對青少年族群進行探究，且常觸及其中的內生性問題，因此本研究使用台灣青少年成長歷程研究(TYP)青少年早期至晚期資料，將心理健康聚焦於青少年的自尊發展，探究與其成人後初婚行為間的關聯，並透過計畫行為理論探究結婚意願是否在其中產生中介效果。

研究方法: 本研究使用台灣青少年成長歷程研究(TYP)資料庫，此資料自2000年開始進行調查，抽取台灣北部國中生作為研究樣本群，將家庭、學校與社區作為影響青少年的主要社會機制，來描繪青少年的成長歷程。本研究以2017年樣本婚姻狀況作為基礎，回溯其青少年時期的自尊發展，取得2,399名受訪者資料，使用STATA 15.0進行潛在類別分析(LCA)將三階段自尊分組，以此來預測成人期初婚行為之可能性，依序進行描述性統計與多元羅吉斯回歸分析，並進一步依據性別進行分層分析。

研究結果: 本研究樣本平均約31歲，男性約占53%，約34%受訪者在大四時期有結婚意願，而截至2017年約39%受訪者已經歷初次結婚，在青少年自尊發展分布上，約16%為穩定低自尊組別，而將近20%為穩定高自尊組別。透過羅吉斯回歸模型預測青少年自尊與成人期初婚行為間的關聯，可以發現低自尊組別有顯著較低的勝算(or=0.64,p<0.01)在成人後進入初婚，在控制背景變項後仍得到相似的結果。進一步使用MacKinnon (2008)中介分析四步驟，可以發現結婚意願在低自尊組別與成人期進入初婚間有著中介的效果，但並不會出現在高自尊的組別中。在性別分層分析有著相似的結果，但僅在女性中發現低自尊組的中介效果。

研究結論: 透過結果發現青少年時期自尊對成人後進入初婚有著顯著影響，尤其是低自尊者；後續相關研究仍需考量可能存在的影響因子。

The longitudinal effect of adolescent health on transition into first marriage has been a neglected area in demographic and health research. While a large body of literature exists on how marriage affects psychological well-being, little is known about the directionality from adolescent health to first marriage. The potential two-way directionality between adolescent health and transition into first marriage poses problems of endogeneity when attempting to isolate the effects of adolescent health on first marriage transition. In order to examine this relationship, we use a cohort sample of adolescents from northern Taiwan on self-esteem measures during adolescence and further transition into marriage in young adulthood (N = 2,399). Results from latent class analysis suggest a three-cluster model of self-esteem trajectory involving stable low, average pattern and stable high self-esteem clusters. Stable low self-esteem clusters are less likely than the average pattern to get married (AOR = 0.65, p < .05), and the association would seem to take a path through an intent to get married among female participants in their twenties. After stratifying by gender, both genders show the less likelihood of transition into first marriage in stable low self-esteem cluster (male: AOR=0.59, p < .05; female: AOR= 0.66, p<0.05). Providing more care regarding adolescents’ self-esteem is an opportunity to improve their future behavior in relation to marriage.

致謝 i
中文摘要 ii
Abstract iii
Contents iv
List of Tables v
List of Figures vii
1 Introduction 1
2 Literature Review 3
2.1 Marriage 3
2.2 Self-esteem 4
2.3 Theory of Planned Behavior 6
2.4 Gender, Social Economic Status and Other Related Factors 7
3 Methods 10
3.1 Data 10
3.2 Measures 11
3.3 Data Analysis 13
4 Results 15
4.1 Sample description 15
4.2 Analysis 16
4.2.1 Inferential Analysis 16
4.2.2. Testing for the mediation effect 16
4.2.3. Stratified Analysis 18
4.2.4. Sensitivity analysis 20
5 Discussion 22
6 Conclusion 29
7 Reference 30

Table 1. Demographic characteristic distribution [percentage or mean (std. dev.)]
between analytical sample and missing data among a cohort sample of adolescents who took part in the Taiwan Youth Project…………………....38
Table 2. Participant characteristics [percentage or mean (std. dev.)] among a cohort
sample of adolescents who took part in the Taiwan Youth Project…….……40
Table 3. Bivariate analysis of participant characteristics [percentage or mean (std. dev.)]
stratified by self-esteem clusters……………………………………...……42
Table 4. Adjusted OR and 95% CI for self-esteem clusters associated with transition
into marriage among the cohort sample of adolescents(n=2,399)………….44
Table 5. Testing the mediation effect and moderated mediation effect of adolescent self-
esteem on transition into first married……………………...………………47
Table 6. Mediation analysis of intent to get married between self-esteem clusters and
transition into first married………………………………………………....48
Table 7. Participant characteristics [percentage or mean (std. dev.)] among a cohort
sample of adolescents who took part in the Taiwan Youth Project………….49
Table 8. Comparison of the adjusted OR and 95% CI for self-esteem clusters associated
with transition into marriage among the cohort sample of adolescents between male(n=1,274) and female (n=1,125) samples…………………....51
Table 9. Testing the mediation effect and moderated mediation effect of adolescent self-
esteem on transition into first married for female(n=1,125)……………..…57
Table 10. Testing the mediation effect and moderated mediation effect of adolescent
self-esteem on transition into first married for male(n=1,274)……………..58
Table 11. Mediation analysis of intent to get married between self-esteem clusters and
transition into first married in female (n=1,225)…………………………..59
Table 12. Mediation analysis of intent to get married between self-esteem clusters and
transition into first married in male(n=1,227)……………………………..60
Table 13. Self-esteem cluster distribution between total analytical sample(n=2,399) and
lost sample*(n=562)…………………………………………………….....61
Table 14. Self-esteem score of analytical samples(n=2,399) and lost
samples*(n=562)……………………………………………………….….62

Figure 1. Conceptual framework………………………………………………….….36
Figure 2. Participants in serial surveys in Taiwan Youth Project (TYP) from 2017...37

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