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研究生:陳柏宏
研究生(外文):CHEN, BO-HONG
論文名稱:以大數據探悉中共武嚇期間臺灣民眾對國軍之認同
論文名稱(外文):Exploring Public Approval of Armed Forces of the Republic of China Amid Chinese Communist Party’s Saber-Rattling: A Big Data Approach
指導教授:孫懋嘉孫懋嘉引用關係
指導教授(外文):SUN, MAO-CHIA
口試委員:郭文平邵軒磊
口試委員(外文):KUO, WIN-PINGSHAO, HSUAN-LEI
口試日期:2021-05-12
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國防大學政治作戰學院
系所名稱:新聞碩士班
學門:傳播學門
學類:新聞學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:168
中文關鍵詞:大數據分析語料庫文本分析民眾態度政治系統理論
外文關鍵詞:big data analysiscorpus text analysispublic attitudepolitical system theory
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隨著中共對臺的威脅與日俱增,臺灣民眾對國軍有效防衛臺灣的信心與支持逐漸受到關注。根據民意調查,2017年至2020年,認為國軍有足夠能力保衛臺灣的民眾增加了二十個百分點。但研究者仍無法從數據中獲知,究竟是何種緣故,使得過去幾年較為平穩的民眾態度產生了變化?本研究為進一步探討近年來臺灣民眾對國軍之認同變化的因素,採取David Easton的「政治系統理論」作為研究途徑,結合「大數據分析」及「語料庫文本分析」兩種不同取徑的分析方式描繪中共武嚇背景下的涉軍網路輿情。研究結果發現,基於我國民眾對國軍長期反制中共軍機侵擾,逐漸形成的情感與信賴,儘管我國民眾雖不滿於當前的兵役制度、後備改革政策及國軍訓練內容,並無損於民眾對國軍的信念。但假若國防部遲遲未回應民意,導致民眾的不滿持續過長的時間,恐將侵蝕原本逐漸牢固的潛在連結,使民眾不再相信國軍的行動與決策均以人民的利益為優先。
With the Chinese Communist Party’s increasing threat to Taiwan, growing attention has been paid to Taiwanese people’s confidence in and support for the armed forces of the Republic of China. According to the polls, the number of people believing that the military is capable of defending Taiwan has increased by 20 percent since 2017 to 2020. However, it is hard for the researcher to learn that what brought about the change of the public’s attitudes towards the Taiwanese Armed Forces in the past few years. In order to further explore the factors of the change of Taiwanese people's public approval of the Taiwanese Armed Forces in recent years, this study adopted David Easton's "political system theory" as the research framework, combined with two different methods of "big data analysis" and "corpus text analysis" to describe the military-related online public opinion under the background of Chinese Communist Party’s saber rattling. The results showed that, based on the trust gradually formed by our military long-term counteraction against the intrusiveness of People's Liberation Army aircraft, although the Taiwanese people were dissatisfied with the current military service system, the public's faith in our military was not undermined. But if the Ministry of National Defense’s delay in responding to public opinion leads to a prolonged period of discontent, it could erode the underlying military-civilian relationships that have grown stronger, undermining the public's belief that the military's actions and decisions put the people's interests first.
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究背景
第二節 研究動機
第三節 研究目的
第四節 研究問題

第二章 文獻探討
第一節 國軍與社會關係
壹、國軍在臺歷史與定位
貳、國軍與媒體關係
參、中共解放軍之威脅與國軍職能
第二節 臺灣民眾對國軍之認同
壹、國軍與政治支持
貳、國軍與政治信任
參、小結
第三節 研究問題

第三章 研究途徑與研究方法
第一節 研究途徑
第二節 研究方法
壹、大數據分析
貳、語料庫文本分析
第三節 研究流程

第四章 研究結果
第一節 社群趨勢分析
壹、社群指標
貳、各項社群指標趨勢分析
參、小結
第二節 涉軍意見來源及輿情趨勢
壹、輿情指標
貳、各類涉軍意見來源及輿情趨勢
參、小結
第三節 涉軍輿情分析
壹、支持國軍
貳、國軍能力之信任與質疑
參、國防政策之支持與否定
肆、小結

第五章 結論
第一節 研究發現與討論
壹、社群領袖的角色定位
貳、臺灣民眾對國軍的廣泛支持
參、臺灣民眾對國軍的質疑與否定
肆、臺灣民眾對國軍之認同
第二節 研究貢獻與建議
壹、研究貢獻
貳、研究限制與建議

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