臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

為了達成廢核減碳的目標，台灣近年來積極地推廣再生能源，以達到2025年再生能源占比達20%的目標。隨著再生能源發電占比提高，燃煤與燃氣的大型同步機組發電量逐漸降低，電力系統的同步慣量也隨之減少，未來的電力系統若發生較大的頻率擾動事故，造成的頻率變化率及頻率跌幅將大幅增加，可能觸發低頻卸載電驛動作，進而影響電力系統穩定性。
本文使用由台灣電力公司提供之歷史頻率擾動事件相關量測資料，針對台電系統之特性進行探討，並與PSS/E模擬系統之頻率響應結果做比較，提出導致與實際量測資料有差異之可能因素。除此之外，也將台電系統等效為一小型系統，以便觀察相關參數對電力系統之影響。接續以西元2026年的台灣電力系統作為研究標的，進行大量再生能源併入系統的暫態模擬及分析，最後利用人工智慧對頻率擾動事件之相關參數進行預測，獲得準確的結果。

In order to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions, Taiwan has actively promoted renewable energy in recent years. The government plans to increase the proportion of renewable energy to 20% by 2025. However, as the proportion of renewable energy in the power system increases, the generation of synchronous generators gradually decreases, and the inertia in the system will also decrease. Suppose a large frequency disturbance accident occurs in the future. In that case, the rate of change of frequency and frequency deviation will increase significantly, which may trigger the under frequency load shedding relay action, reducing the stability of the power system.
This thesis uses the measurement data of historical frequency disturbance events provided by the Taiwan Power Company (TPC) to investigate the characteristics of the Taipower system and compares it with the frequency response results of the PSS/E simulation system. After that, it proposes the possible factors that cause the discrepancy with the measurement data. In addition, the Taipower system is equivalent to a small system to observe the effect of related parameters on the power system. Then, taking the Taiwan power system in 2026 as the research object and using the transient simulation analysis function of PSS/E to conduct a large number of renewable energy integration systems. Finally, artificial intelligence technology was used to predict the related parameters of frequency disturbance events and obtain accurate results.

誌謝辭 i
摘要 ii
ABSTRACT iii
目錄 v
圖目錄 vii
表目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 文獻回顧 1
1.3 論文架構 4
1.4 本文貢獻 5
第二章 台電系統之慣量常數與m值研究 6
2.1 近年台電系統介紹 6
2.2 慣量常數 7
2.3 頻率響應 9
2.4 負載慣量貢獻 13
2.5 頻率變化係數m值 15
2.6 近年電力系統特性 20
第三章 台電歷史頻率擾動事件分析 21
3.1 前言 21
3.2 台灣近年頻率擾動事件 21
3.2.1 實際量測數據 22
3.3 發電廠實際量測資料與PSS/E模擬結果比較 36
3.4 PSS/E參數擬合 39
3.4.1 部份機組慣量資料缺失 40
3.4.2 動態負載模型 40
3.4.3 發電機之調速機響應 40
3.4.4 測試與擬合結果 40
3.4.5 PMU量測數據與PSS/E擬合前後模擬結果比較 41
第四章 台電系統頻率分析之等效電路 47
4.1 概述 47
4.2 系統介紹 47
4.2.1 模型架構 47
4.2.2 參數擬合 48
4.2.3 擬合結果 52
第五章 大量再生能源併入台電系統之情境分析 66
5.1 研究背景與動機 66
5.2 再生能源高占比系統介紹 66
5.2.1 台電系統動態參數修正 66
5.2.2 模擬情境設定 66
5.3 PSS/E暫態模擬結果與分析 67
5.3.1 輕載系統 67
5.3.2 尖載系統 70
5.4 未來電力系統的特性 74
5.5 線性回歸分析 75
5.5.1 頻率變化率(ROCOF)預測結果 75
5.5.2 頻率跌幅預測結果 76
5.6 類神經網路預測模型 78
5.6.1 頻率變化率(ROCOF)預測模型 78
5.6.2 頻率跌幅預測模型 79
5.6.3 線上可允許的最大跳脫量預測模型 80
5.7 小結 87
第六章 結論與未來工作 88
6.1 結論 88
6.2未來工作 90
參考文獻 91

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