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研究生:李育瑄
研究生(外文):LI,YU-SYUAN
論文名稱:地方制度變動與公共投資對鄉鎮層級人口變動的影響:以臺灣南部縣市為例
論文名稱(外文):The Effects of Local Institutional Change and Public Investment on Population Change at the township Level: A Case Study of Southern Taiwan
指導教授:黃定遠黃定遠引用關係
指導教授(外文):HUANG,TING-YUAN
口試委員:陳盛通許義忠
口試委員(外文):CHEN,SHENG-TUNGHSU,YI-CHUNG
口試日期:2022-06-16
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:逢甲大學
系所名稱:財稅學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財政學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2022
畢業學年度:110
語文別:中文
論文頁數:69
中文關鍵詞:人口遷移三級行政區臺灣南部
外文關鍵詞:the third level administrative regionssouthern Taiwanpopulation change
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就如Tiebout (1956) 所言,人們會移至最能滿足自己偏好的行政區,也就是所謂的「以足投票」。本研究參考國內外學者所提出會影響人口遷移之因素,並將這些因素分為公共投資變數、地方制度變數、所得變數、人口屬性變數、居住適合性變數及其他變數等面向,其中公共投資變數包括經濟建設(工業區數量、南科)、大型交通建設(高鐵、交流道聯絡地區數量)及公立高中職數量,而地方制度變數則主要分為鄉鎮市長選舉及升格改制,而升格改制又細分為縣市層級和鄉鎮市區層級,藉以探討哪些變數會對我國南部三級行政區之人口變動率產生影響。
本研究根據政府公開資訊中,西元1996年至西元2020年間臺灣南部 (屏東縣、高雄市、臺南市、嘉義縣、嘉義市)128個三級行政區之資料,選定這個研究期間主要因在2010年部分縣市經歷了升格改制,故可參考改制前後的人口變動,並加以整理成七個模型,以此來研究其與人口變動率之間的關聯。採用兩種檢定來判斷此模型適合固定效果、隨機效果或是普通最小平方法(OLS),採用之檢定分別為Hausman test及Lagrangian multiplier test,七個模型之Hausman test及Lagrangian multiplier test檢定結果皆表明七個模型皆適合採用固定效果,且不適合採用普通最小平方法。
研究結果發現:性別比與人口變動率之間呈顯著負相關;前一期平均每一平方公里人口數的變動與人口變動率之間呈顯著正相關;醫生數與人口變動率之間呈顯著負相關;升格改制(鄉鎮市區層級-臺南市內)與人口變動率之間呈顯著負相關;公立高中職數量與人口變動率之間呈顯著負相關;交流道聯絡地區數量與人口變動率之間呈顯著負相關;高鐵建立與人口變動率之間呈顯著負相關,其餘變數皆為不顯著。
本研究採用之變數大多都建立在國內外學者研究人口遷移的文獻基礎上,故可能因為國家地理環境的不同,臺灣並不能表現出如美國一樣明顯的差異,也可能因為台灣的學者對於人口遷移之研究僅在縣市層級,故當我們把數據資料細分至鄉鎮市區層級時,會影響縣市層級的人口遷移因素,不一定會對鄉鎮市區層級產生顯著影響,另一方面,我國地方政府亦不重視三級行政區之公開資料完整性,故本研究無法細細釐清可能造成人口遷移決策之所有因素。

As Tiebout (1956) argued, people move to the administrative area that best satisfies their preferences, which is called "voting with their feet". In this study, we take into account the factors that influence population migration as suggested by domestic and foreign scholars and classify them into public investment variables, local system variables, income variables, population attributes variables, residential suitability variables, other variables, etc. Among them, public investment variables include economic construction (number of industrial zones, Southern Taiwan Science Park), large-scale transportation construction (Taiwan High-Speed Rail, number of Interchange Contact Areas), and the number of public high schools, while the local system variables are divided into the election of township mayors and the promotion and restructuring of townships, which are subdivided into county and city levels and the urban level of townships, in order to investigate which variables will affect the population change rate in the three administrative levels in southern Taiwan.
This study is based on the data of 128 tertiary administrative districts in southern Taiwan (Pingtung County, Kaohsiung City, Tainan City, Chiayi County, and Chiayi City) from 1996 to 2020 A.D. This study period was selected mainly because some counties and cities underwent upgrading and restructuring in 2010, so the population changes before and after the restructuring can be referred to. These variables are organized into seven models to study their relationship with the population change rate. The relationship between this model and the rate of population change is examined. The Hausman test and Lagrangian multiplier test were used to determine whether the models were suitable for fixed effects, random effects, or ordinary least square (OLS) methods. The results of the Hausman test and Lagrangian multiplier test for all seven models indicate that all seven models are suitable for fixed effects and are not suitable for the ordinary least square method.
The results of the study showed that there was a negative correlation between sex ratio and population change rate; a positive correlation between the change in average population per square kilometer and population change rate in the previous period; a negative correlation between the number of doctors and population change rate; a negative correlation between upgrading and restructuring (rural-urban level - within Tainan City) and population change rate; a negative correlation between the number of public high schools and population change rate; a negative correlation between the number of interchanges connected areas and population change rate; and a negative correlation between the establishment of high-speed rail and population change rate, while all other variables were insignificant.
Most of the variables used in this study are based on the literature of domestic and foreign scholars on population migration. Therefore, it may be because of the different national geographic environments that Taiwan does not show the same obvious differences as the United States, or because Taiwanese scholars have an understanding of population migration. The research is only at the county and city level, so when we subdivide the data into the township and urban level, it will affect the population migration factors at the county and city level, and may not have a significant impact on the township level. On the other hand, local governments in my country also do not pay attention to the integrity of the public information of the three-level administrative regions, this study cannot clarify all the factors that may lead to the decision of population migration.

第一章 緒論 9
第一節 研究動機及背景 9
第二節 研究目的 10
第三節 研究範圍 11
第四節 研究架構 12
第二章 人口遷移理論與文獻探討 13
第一節 人口遷移理論介紹 13
第二節 人口遷移模型之應用 14
第三節 國內外實證文獻 16
第三章 南部整體人口變動趨勢 22
第一節 各縣市人口相對我國整體人口變動趨勢 22
第二節 鄉鎮市區人口變動趨勢有別於縣市整體趨勢 24
第四章 研究方法 33
第一節 資料範圍與變數選取 33
第二節 研究模型設計 40
第五章 實證方法與結果分析 43
第一節 敘述統計 43
第二節 實證結果分析 44
第六章 結論與建議 54
參考文獻 58
附錄 I
附錄一、屏東縣各鄉鎮市區人口指數 I
附錄二、高雄市各鄉鎮市區人口指數 III
附錄三、臺南市各鄉鎮市區人口指數 V
附錄四、嘉義市各鄉鎮市區人口指數 VII
附錄五、嘉義縣各鄉鎮市區人口指數 VIII


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