臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著全球化的推移，貿易協定的簽訂漸漸受到各國的注目與關心，在過去文獻中，大多探討日本各個貿易協定與單一協定為日本所帶來的貿易效果，而日本與貿易組織所簽訂的貿易協定卻鮮少討論。因此本研究以1996年至2018年間，使用四種固定效果組合，以分析日本與東協簽訂之自由貿易協之效果。透過日本與東協自由貿易協定依不同時間區分，且以滯後期的方式檢定，增強自由貿易協定的穩健性，為本文貢獻之處。由實證結果可知，在控制出口國固定效果與進口國固定效果下，日本－東協貿易協定從2008年至2018年相較於未簽屬貿易協定時，增加了20.7%至104%的出口貿易量；當日本與東協為出口國時，相較於日本－東協為非出口國，則減少了8.4%至33.7%的出口貿易額；當日本與東協為進口國時，相較於日本－東協為非進口國，減少了4.5%至44.4%貿易夥伴國的出口貿易額。雖然日本－東協自由貿易協定對會員國在出口國或進口國向其他夥伴進行貿易時，相對於在未簽屬貿易協定會減少出口貿易額，帶來貿易移轉的影響，但對於日本－東協會員國間相互貿易，反而比日本東協未簽屬協定時增加了出口貿易額，產生貿易創造的效果，可見日本與東協之自由貿易協定對日本出口貿易的重要性。並且建議日本應積極向其他鄰近國家簽訂貿易協定，為雙邊增加貿易創造所帶來的影響效果，透過本文的發現，可以為日本政府提出增加簽訂貿易協定的相關依據做為參考。

With the development of globalization, signing trade agreements has gradually attracted the attention and concern for various countries. In the literature, the effect of most trade agreements in Japan have been discussed as well as the effect of single agreements, but the trade agreements of regional organization with Japan are rarely discussed. Thus, this study uses four combinations of fixed-effects from 1996 to 2018 to discuss the effect of the free trade agreements (FTAs) signed by Japan and ASEAN, namely Japan-ASEAN FTA. By distinguishing Japan-ASEAN FTA at different periods, and verifying lagged effects to enhance the robustness of the FTAs, which are the major contributions for this paper. As for the empirical results, the formation of Japan-ASEAN FTA increased by 20.7% to 104% under the exporter and importer fixed effects controlled. When Japan and ASEAN countries are exporters, the trade decreased by 8.4% to 33.7%, compared with non-exporters for Japan-ASEAN countries. As for the import, when Japan and ASEAN countries are importers, the trade with trading partners decreased by 4.5% to 44.4%, compared with non-importers for Japan-ASEAN countries. Although he Japan-ASEAN FTA will reduce the trade and present the impact of trade diversion when the member countries trade with other partners in terms of exports and importers, there is a positive effect of trade creation when Japan trade with ASEAN member countries. Overall, we still suggest that Japan should actively sign FTA with other neighboring countries to increase the impact of bilateral trade creation. We hope our findings could provide relevant evidence for Japanese government signing FTAs as the reference.

誌　　謝 iii
摘　要 iv
Abstract v
目　錄 vi
表目錄 vii
圖目錄 viii
壹、緒論 1
一、研究動機 1
二、研究目的 3
三、研究架構 4
貳、文獻回顧 5
一、引力模型相關文獻整理 5
二、區域貿易協定與自由貿易協定相關文獻整理 6
參、貿易協定發展趨勢及日本進出口貿易發展 8
肆、資料來源及研究方法 11
一、資料來源 11
二、研究方法 12
伍、實證結果 17
一、FTA基本模型 17
二、FTA量化之穩健性模型 20
陸、結論與建議 29
參考文獻 31
附錄 34

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