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研究生:廖湘綺
論文名稱:高速公路可預期施工事件對車流影響之模擬分析
論文名稱(外文):The Traffic Impact Simulation Analysis of Predictable Work Zone Events on Freeways
指導教授:蘇昭銘蘇昭銘引用關係
口試委員:王晉元張建彥蘇昭銘
口試日期:2022-06-17
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:逢甲大學
系所名稱:運輸與物流學系
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2022
畢業學年度:110
語文別:中文
論文頁數:95
中文關鍵詞:可預期事件(施工)高速公路車流模擬交通實驗設計
外文關鍵詞:Work zonefreewayTraffic SimulationTraffic experiment design
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準確與即時的交通資訊能夠提供用路人良好之運輸服務品質,以及給予交通主管單位可靠預測執行策略擬定,然而道路交通狀況不僅受到車流量多寡影響,亦會受到事件之影響,可分為重現性與非重現性兩類,舉例而言:通勤時之尖峰時段、連續假期期間之交通壅塞,屬於重現性影響;可預期性之施工或活動,或者不可預期性交通事故、天然災害,屬於非重現性影響。針對尖峰時段重現性事件,用路人已習以為常且能透過分流方式避開壅塞時段,自行掌握其交通情況,但對於可預期性或者不可預期性之非重現性事件,較難以預測其交通影響狀況,且相對而言關係更為複雜。
因此,本研究為了探討可預期性事件(施工)對高速公路所產生的交通影響,參考過去施工區文獻,應用VISSIM模擬軟體建立高速公路施工區模式,以雙重驗證機制針對模式進行修正,透過交通模擬實驗設計之作法調整(總)流量(每小時到達車輛數)、車道數、車道封閉數、施工區長度、施工區位置五項控制因子,模擬高速公路於各施工情境下之速率績效。
研究結果顯示,所建構之模式在非施工情境影響模擬模式中整體平均MAPE預測誤差為1.56%,端點交通量平均驗證MAPE為2.18%;施工區情境影響模擬模式整體平均MAPE預測誤差為11.53%,端點交通量平均驗證MAPE為1.47%,表示在非施工狀態及施工狀態下模式皆可表現出良好的預測效果,後續研究藉由交通模擬實驗設計產製速率績效進行比較分析,發現影響施工區速率績效變化最主要之控制因子為(總)流量(每小時到達車輛數)及車道封閉數,表示高速公路發生壅塞導因於供給與需求不平衡致使速率降低,因此建議高速公路進行施工作業時,應避開在(總)流量高之尖峰時段及在尖峰時段封閉過多之車道數。

Accurate and real-time traffic information can provide passers-by with a good quality of transportation services, as well as give traffic authorities reliable forecasts to implement strategies. However, road traffic conditions are not only affected by traffic flow, but also by events, which can be classified as recurrence. There are two types of recurrent congestion and non-recurrence congestion, for example: peak hour during commuting, traffic congestion during consecutive holidays, which are reproducible effects; predictable construction, activities, unpredictable traffic accidents or natural disasters are non-reproducible effects. For recurrent congestion during peak hours, passers-by have become accustomed and can avoid traffic congested periods by diverting, but for non-recurrence congestion it is more difficult to predict their traffic impact situation, and the relationship is relatively more complex.
Therefore, in order to explore the traffic impact of predictable events (construction) on the freeway, through study refers to the literature of the past construction area, and found most of the literature using VISSIM simulation software to establish the freeway construction area model. The research uses the double verification mechanism to correct the model. And then use the method of simulation experiment design adjusts (total) traffic flow (number of arriving vehicles per hour), consider including the number of lanes, the number of lane closures, the length of the construction area, and the location of the construction area to simulated the speed performance of the freeway under various construction scenarios.
The research results show that the overall average MAPE prediction error of the simulation model in non-construction situation is 1.56%, and the average MAPE of startpoint traffic flow is 2.18%; the overall average MAPE prediction error of the simulation model in construction situation is 11.53%, and the average MAPE of startpoint traffic flow is 1.47%, which means that the mode can show good prediction effect in both the non-construction situation and the construction situation. After follow-up the research results through the traffic simulation experiment design to compared and analyzed for performance, and find the main control factors of affects traffic speed of the construction area. The research find main control factors is (total) traffic flow (number of vehicles arriving per hour) and the number of lane closures, which means that the congestion on the freeway is caused by the imbalance of supply and demand so slow doen the speed. Therefore, suggested that the construction organizer should avoid high (total) traffic flow and the number of lanes that are closed too much during peak hours.
第一章 緒論
1.1研究動機與背景
1.2研究目的
1.3研究方法
1.4研究範圍
1.5研究流程
第二章 文獻回顧
2.1高速公路施工區佈設規範
2.1.1美國交通管制標準手冊(MUTCD)
2.1.2臺灣地區交通工程規範
2.2施工影響相關研究
2.3施工影響分析文獻綜合探討
第三章 高速公路施工區模式建構
3.1資料蒐集
3.2資料預處理
3.3分析情境假設與限制
3.3.1非施工情境交通模擬環境建立
3.3.2施工情境交通模擬環境建立
第四章 模式驗證
4.1非施工影響模擬模式驗證
4.2施工區影響模擬模式驗證
第五章 交通模擬實驗設計
5.1交通模擬實驗設計流程
5.2控制因子設定
5.3交通模擬實驗設計組合
5.4模擬分析結果
5.5實例驗證
5.5.1實例驗證路段
5.5.2實例驗證資料蒐集
5.5.3實例驗證結果
第六章 加值應用服務
6.1以EXCEL巨集功能建構速率績效查詢
6.2以Power BI分析工具建構速率績效查詢
6.3以Flourish分析工具進行案例動態呈現
第七章 結論與建議
7.1結論
7.2建議
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