臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文建立一個新興凱因斯的動態隨機一般均衡模型，分析若政策以課徵碳租稅達到減少碳排放量為目的，在給定零利率下限條件下，經濟體系面臨衝擊的景氣波動。本文的估計結果發現，對於政府而言，貨幣政策在通膨的敏感度比產出波動的敏感度高。然而在總和需求出現大幅度的負面衝擊時，且政府制定利率面臨零利率下限的窘境，會大幅降低投資市場的報酬率，並造成更嚴重的總和產出衰退。

This paper builds a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the effects of government taxes aiming to decrease carbon dioxide emission. We investigate business cycle fluctuations under the zero lower bound condition. We obtain the following results: (i) monetary policies are more sensitive to inflation than to output gap; (ii) when a dramatic negative shock occurs, the government is subject to the difficulty since the nominal interest rate cannot be lower than the zero lower bound. In this context, the shock will substantially reduce the rate of return in the capital market, leading to worse output declines.

一、緒論 1
1.1 研究目的 1
1.2文獻回顧 2
二、模型設定 4
2.1模型簡介 4
2.2 代表性家計 4
2.2 最終財廠商 6
2.3 中間財廠商 6
2.4 政府單位 10
2.5 市場商品總和供給 11
2.6 市場結清條件 11
2.7 經濟體系外生衝擊 12
2.8 參數設定 13
三、參數估計 14
3.1資料選取與處理 14
3.2先驗分配 17
3.3後驗分配 17
3.4衝擊反應函數 20
3.4.1技術衝擊 20
3.4.2政府支出衝擊 21
3.4.3貨幣政策衝擊 22
3.4.4勞動厭惡衝擊 23
3.4.5主觀折現因子衝擊 24
四、政策差異與利率限制 25
4.1實施政策差異 25
4.2具有零利率下限及較大的生產力衝擊 (總和供給衝擊) 27
4.3 負向的政府支出衝擊 (需求面衝擊) 27
五、結論 31
參考文獻 32
附錄 35

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