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研究生:紀沛妤
研究生(外文):Pei-Yu Chi
論文名稱:產業發展政策效果評估
論文名稱(外文):Three Essays on Industrial Development Policy Effects
指導教授:張國益張國益引用關係
指導教授(外文):Kuo-I Chang
口試委員:張嘉玲廖述誼黃炳文李仁耀戴錦周
口試委員(外文):Chia-Lin ChangShu-Yi LiaoBiing-Wen HuangJen-Yao LeeJin-Jou Dai
口試日期:2021-05-15
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:應用經濟學系所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:110
語文別:英文
論文頁數:143
中文關鍵詞:政策效果評估紅色供應鏈產業升級食品業海外子公司新南向國家觀光政策
外文關鍵詞:Policy Effects EvaluationRed Supply ChainIndustrial UpgradingFood IndustryOverseas SubsidiariesNew Southbound CountriesTourism Policy
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本研究嘗試使用政策評估方法為三個與國際貿易相關的議題進行分析。 儘管先前文獻經常採用事前分析的政策評估方法預測特定政策對國際貿易的影響, 利用事後分析方法的研究卻較少被提出。鑒於近年來對國際貿易事後分析方法的逐漸重視,且也被廣為使用。因此,本研究認為採用事後分析方法除了可以檢討政策推行的效果,也能根據實證結果為既有政策提供調整與修正的方向,進而補足相關研究的缺口。
第一個研究主要探討「中國製造2025」政策在政策中提到的重點產業和產品進出口貿易金額的影響。本研究採用TVC Cox比例風險模型分析影響進出口貿易存活率的危險因子。在政策評估方面,則使用追蹤資料配合DID方法評估政策效果,分析「中國製造2025」政策是否能夠提升重要產業與財貨的出口,同時減少依賴進口中間財,進而達到政策中強調提升自給率的目標。本研究使用的樣本取自UN Comtrade資料庫中2000年到2018年的中國進出口金額。根據實證結果,可以發現「中國製造2025」政策在提高中間財自給率從而減少依賴進口重要產業財貨的貿易金額方面,政策效果十分有限。本研究結果對於解讀中國雙邊貿易在全球價值鏈中的可持續發展具有貢獻與重要的政策含意。
其次,第二個研究主題為評估「日本全球食品價值鏈」政策對海外子公司營收的影響。樣本數據為東洋經濟新報社出版之2003到2017年間海外進出企業總覽資料庫。此研究採用DID方法對日本全球食品價值鏈政策進行分析,此外,本研究也使用了傾向分數配對配合DID方法估計政策效果,並針對不同方法的實證結果進行討論,進而探討實證結果的穩健性。實證結果顯示,在全球食品價值鏈政策下,設立在合作夥伴國家中的所有子公司(full sample)和食品加工(food processing)子公司的收入之平均處置效果大於設立於非夥伴國家中的子公司。但是,經營食品生產(food production)、物流(logistics)、食品零售(food retailing)和餐飲業(catering)的海外子公司收入未有顯著正向的平均處置效果,即不具政策效益。在政策含意上,則建議在定義合作夥伴國家時,若考量子公司不同的經營類別將治療組和對照組進行區分或許可以改善食品生產(food production)、物流(logistics)、食品零售(food retailing)和餐飲業(catering)等經營類別不具政策效益的結果。也就是說,此政策仍有進一步調整的空間。
最後,本研究使用了三種迴歸分析評估旅遊新南向政策工作計劃對國際旅客訪台旅遊需求的影響。研究樣本資料為交通部觀光局2001年至2018年的「來台旅客消費及動向調查」原始資料,取自中央研究院學術調查研究資料庫。本研究更進一步計算每人每日消費金額以供穩健性分析。根據實證結果,旅遊新南向政策的實施對增加新南向國家遊客訪台停留天數和旅遊支出效果有限,甚至部分結果呈現負面政策效果。另一方面,相較於其他新南向國家,新加坡與馬來西亞在實證結果中呈現了較多的正向平均處置效果。可能原因為新加坡和馬來西亞在旅客倍增和觀光拔尖政策中都被列為主要推廣國家,從而提高了兩國在旅遊新南向政策中呈現正向顯著的平均處置效果的機率。根據此結果可以推論觀光政策或許仍需長遠規劃與經營,並非一蹴可幾。
Policy evaluation methods are employed to analyze three relevant issues of international trade. Despite that the previous literature commonly employ the policy evaluation of ex ante analysis to predict/simulate the impact of specific policies on international trade, previous studies using the ex post analysis are rarely proposed. Considering increasing focus on international trade of ex post analysis in recent years, this study suggests that the adoption of ex post analysis could not only quantitatively evaluates the effects of policy implementation, but also provide revision guideline for existing policies based on empirical results, thereby filling the gaps in related research on the method of evaluation for the impact of trade policies.
The purpose of first topic is to investigate the policy effects on the import and export value of major industries and detailed products that listed on Made in China 2025 policy. TVC Cox proportional hazard model is employed to analyze the critical factors, and panel regression along with DID method is also used to evaluate whether the major industries and products are affected by Made in China 2025. The imports and exports data of China between 2000 to 2018 are from the UN Comtrade database. The empirical results show limited effect of Made in China 2025 policy on increase its self-sufficiency rate of intermediate goods and thereby reduce imports of critical industries. This study serves a valuable contribution and important policy implications for sustainable development of China''s bilateral trade in the global value chain.
The second essay is to evaluate the effect of JGFVC policy on revenue of overseas subsidiaries. The firm-level data are drawn from the Overseas Japanese Companies Database maintained by Toyo Keizai Incorporated from 2003–2017. The DID method is employed to analyze the effect of JGFVC. Moreover, the propensity score matching method is adopted as robustness analysis. The empirical results show that the ATE of revenue in the full sample and food processing subsidiaries in treatment countries under the JGFVC policy are higher than that of the subsidiaries in control countries. However, the average treatment effect of revenue of overseas subsidiaries in food production, logistics, food retailing, and catering are not significant. In terms of policy implications, selection of the treatment group and control group on the basis of the different operating categories of the subsidiaries when defining the partner countries would be an approach that more proper and reasonable. In other words, this indicates the JGFVC policy still requires further adjustment.
The aim of final essay is to assess the impact of Tourism New Southbound Policy Work Plan on international tourism demand in Taiwan by three regression models. The data in this study comprises the data of Annual Survey of Visitors Expenditure and Trends in Taiwan from 2001 to 2018 obtained from the Survey Research Data Archive. This study further calculates the tourism expenditure per tourist per day for stability analysis. Estimated results show that the ATEs of the TNSB policy on increasing the length of stay and tourism expenditure among tourists from NSB countries are limited or even generate negative policy effects. Since Singapore and Malaysia are listed as major countries in Doubling and Vanguard policy, a higher frequency of presenting positive ATE in TNSB policy are discovered. According to the result aforementioned, which also indicates that the tourism policy needs long-range planning to reach the goals.
Table of contents
摘要 i
Abstract iii
Table of contents v
List of Tables viii
List of Figures x
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Red Supply Chain in China 2
1.2 Global Food Value Chain Strategy in Japan 8
1.3 The National Southbound Tourism Plan on Inbound Tourists in Taiwan 16
2. Literature Review 27
2.1 Survival analysis applied in international trade 27
2.2 Policy effect evaluation on international trade and tourism 29
2.3 Sub-summary 31
3. Policy Effects Evaluation of Red Supply Chain in China: Application of Survival Duration and DID Estimation 32
3.1 Data Processing 32
3.2 Methodology 34
3.2.1 The Kaplan–Meier Estimator 46
3.2.2 Time-varying Covariate Cox Proportional Hazards Model 47
3.2.3 Panel Data Regression and Difference in Differences 48
3.3 Empirical Results 50
3.3.1 The Duration of Imports and Exports Trade for the General Machinery by Product Sector 51
3.3.2 The Duration of the Imports and Exports of Electrical Machinery by Product Sector 55
3.3.3 The Duration of the Imports and Exports of Transportation Equipment by Product Sector 58
3.3.4 The Duration of the Imports and Exports of Precision Machinery by Product Sector 61
3.3.5 Empirical Results of the Time-varying Covariate Cox Proportional Hazard Model 65
3.3.6 Results of the Panel Data Estimation with DID methods 67
3.4 Conclusions 74
4. Policy Effects Evaluation of Japanese Global Food Value Chain Strategy - Evidence from Overseas Subsidiaries in Food Industry 76
4.1 Methodology and Data Process 76
4.1.1 DID Estimation 76
4.1.2 DID with the PSM Approach 79
4.1.3 Data Collation 81
4.2 Empirical Results 82
4.2.1 Descriptive Statistics 82
4.2.2 Empirical Results of DID 88
4.2.3 Empirical Results of PSM-DID method 97
4.3 Conclusion 98
5. Evaluation of the Impact of the National Southbound Tourism Plan on Inbound Tourists in Taiwan: A Difference-in-Differences Approach 101
5.1 Data-process 101
5.2 Methodology 104
5.2.1 Difference-in-difference estimation 104
5.2.2 Zero-truncated negative binomial regression 106
5.2.3 Propensity score matching and DID estimation 108
5.3 Empirical-Results 110
5.3.1 Descriptive-Statistics 110
5.3.2 DID method-result: Length of stay, tourism expenditure, and per tourist per day 115
5.3.3 Robustness analysis- Length of stay 119
5.3.4 Robustness analysis- Tourism expenditure 120
5.4 Conclusion 124
6. Overall Conclusions 127
Reference 130
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