臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

海堤溯升計算一直是海岸建設規劃重要的一環，準確的溯升計算能使工程設計達到安全與預算間的最佳平衡，本研究使用政府計畫中大範圍海氣象數值模式重現過去颱風事件海平面波浪條件的結果，配合斷面數值模式模擬近岸海堤溯升結果建立溯升資料庫，並使用機器學習法建立外海觀測資料與海堤溯升間的連結。

本研究依據海底地形及海堤斷面設計圖建立一個長度1公里，垂直於高雄彌陀海堤岸線的一維底床作為斷面溯升模擬使用，斷面模擬的造波條件以及初始水深使用大範圍風浪模擬結果中離岸1公里處的資料提取點，資料類型為示性波高、尖峰週期及水位。

機器學習採用高斯過程法，其已在Beuzen et al. (2019)中被使用來推估沙灘上的溯升高度；訓練資料使用大範圍風浪模擬結果中離海堤6 公里外的位置提取出的示性波高、尖峰週期、波向與水位資料來和溯升高度組成訓練集，以此建立外海資料與海堤溯升間的迴歸模型。

最後將2021年燦樹颱風期間觀測得到之溯升高度與外海資料作為測試集，使用訓練出的迴歸模型作推估比較其與實際觀測溯升之差異。作為斷面數值模式結果所建立廻歸模型的對照，使用經驗公式取代斷面模擬直接從外海資料提取點進行波浪淺化再計算溯升高度，並建立一組對照的迴歸模型與數值模式之廻歸模型作推估溯升比較，兩者間的比較結果顯示使用數值模式計算溯升所建立的迴歸模型較經驗公式有略高的準確性，雖有建立訓練集較為耗時的缺點，但在建立沿海防護預警系統時可作為一個值得參考的溯升資料來源。

Runup estimation has always been an important part of coastal engineering. An accurate runup estimation can make seawall design achieve the balance between protective effect and budget. This study uses the result of the large-scale marine meteorological model to simulate the surface conditions during past typhoon events and the result is used as input for the cross-sectional numerical model SWASH to simulate the runup on the seawall. Finally, use machine learning method is applied to learn the relationship between the offshore wave data and runup on seawalls.
In this study, a 1-kilometer-long, numerical cross-section sea bottom perpendicular to the shoreline of the Mito seawall in Kaohsiung is established based on the seabed topography and the seawall section design diagram. The wave conditions and initial water level of the cross-section simulations are extracted from the extraction point from the result of the large-scale marine meteorological model, which includes significant wave height, peak period, and water level.
The machine learning method uses the Gaussian process method, which has been used in Beuzen et al. (2019) to estimate the runup on sandy beaches. The training dataset used in machine learning contains significant wave height, peak wave period, mean wave direction, water level, and runup height, based on this training set, the regression model is established between offshore data and runup on the seawall.
After training the regression model, the observation data is used during the Chanthu typhoon in 2021 as the testing dataset to assess the difference between estimation runup height and observation runup height. As a control group of the regression model based on the cross-sectional model result, build another regression model using empirical runup equations to calculate runup as the training set. The result of the comparison shows that the regression model based on the cross-section model has slightly higher accuracy on runup estimates, which can be used in coastal protection early warning system.

摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
致謝 IX
目錄 X
圖目錄 XII
表目錄 XIV
符號說明 XV
第 1 章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機與目的 1
1-2 文獻回顧 3
1-3 本文組織 5
第 2 章 研究方法 6
2-1 海氣象模擬 6
2-2 斷面模擬 8
2-2-1 SWASH 8
2-2-2 底床條件 10
2-2-3 模擬條件 12
2-3 機器學習 13
2-3-1 資料選擇演算法 14
2-3-2 高斯過程法 17
2-3-3 驗證指標 21
第 3 章 結果與討論 23
3-1 斷面數值模式驗證 23
3-1-1 簡單斜坡溯升 23
3-1-2 不規則波譜的發展 26
3-1-3 不規則波溯升 30
3-2 推估颱風事件溯升 34
3-3 訓練集大小測試 39
3-4 數值模式資料庫與經驗公式資料庫比較 43
3-5 各路徑颱風溯升資料庫比較 47
3-6 訓練參數影響力測試 53
第 4 章 結論與建議 56
4-1 結論 56
4-2 建議 59
參考文獻 60

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