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研究生:黃煌輝
研究生(外文):HUYNH, HOANG-HUY
論文名稱:南太平洋海域灰鯖鮫之族群統計學分析
論文名稱(外文):Demographic Analysis of the Shortfin Mako Shark, Isurus oxyrinchus, in the South Pacific Ocean
指導教授:蔡文沛
指導教授(外文):TSAI, WEN-PEI
口試委員:王勝平劉商隱張以杰
口試委員(外文):WANG, SHENG-PINGLIU, SHANG-YIN VANSONCHANG, YI-JAY
口試日期:2022-06-23
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄科技大學
系所名稱:漁業生產與管理系
學門:農業科學學門
學類:漁業學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2022
畢業學年度:110
語文別:英文
論文頁數:74
中文關鍵詞:族群統計學分析資料有限蒙地卡羅模擬灰鯖鮫南太平洋雙性 別階段結構族群矩陣模型不確定性
外文關鍵詞:demographic analysisdata limitedMonte Carlo simulationshortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus)South Pacifictwo-sex stage-based matrix modeluncertainties
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灰鯖鮫(學名: Isurus oxyrinchus)為生產力低且對漁獲壓力較為敏感的物種。為制定有效的管理和保育策略,自然死亡係數(M)和漁獲死亡係數(F)的參數資料至關重要。然而,灰鯖鮫的漁獲量、漁獲努力量和生物學相關參數不足,導致灰鯖鮫物種的資源評估存在問題。而在資料有限的情況下族群統計學模型便是一個有效評估的工具。本研究建構雙性別階段結構族群矩陣模型進行族群統計學分析,檢視南太平洋灰鯖鮫之族群成長率(λ)。當使用資料有限的模型,且需要管理建議時,應瞭解其不確定性、局限性和缺點。因此,本研究加入蒙地卡羅模擬(Monte Carlo Simulation)估計不確定性對族群成長率的影響。整體而言,本研究結果顯示灰鯖鮫族群數量呈穩定或增加趨勢,但漁獲率仍呈現波動的情形。根據本研究的管理策略模擬表明,在無漁獲壓力的條件下,灰鯖鮫雄魚的族群成長率高於雌魚,雄魚的 λ = 1.103,95% [CI] = 1.034–1.176 year-1,而雌魚灰鯖鮫的 λ = 1.065,95% [CI] = 1.005–1.125 year-1。在特定性別的基礎條件下,雄魚的 λ=1.158,95% [CI] = 1.062–1.260 year-1 和 1.108,95% [CI] = 1.027–1.195 year-1,而雌魚的 λ=1.026,95% [CI] = 0.922–1.098 year-1和 1.009, 95% [CI] = 0.911–1.075 year-1。族群統計學分析結果顯示,保護成熟雄魚所估計的 λ 值會高於保護未成熟雄魚。而在 2 年和 3 年生殖週期的模型中,保護未成熟雌魚的 λ 值則會高於保護成熟雌魚。結果表明,為更適當的保護與管理灰鯖鮫物種,應考慮性別差異性制定合適的管理措施。此外,灰鯖鮫的族群成長率(λ)在幼魚和成魚階段的生存非常敏感,這表示迫切需要嚴格監控和減少該階段的漁獲壓力,以確保本種資源可以永續利用。最後,雖然本研究僅著重於南太平洋灰鯖鮫的單一種群評估,但期待在未來此建模方法能應用於其他資料有限的鯊魚物種和分類群。
The shortfin mako shark, Isurus oxyrinchus, is not very productive and is relatively sensitive to fishing. Natural mortality (M) and fishing mortality (F) data are critical for developing effective management and conservation strategies. Unfortunately, records of catch, fishing effort, and biological composition of shark populations are often insufficient, making stock assessments problematic. Demographic models are effective tools for studying species with limited data. In this work, a demographic analysis using a two-sex stage-structured matrix population model was conducted to examine the finite rate of population growth (λ) of mako sharks in the South Pacific. When informationlimited models must be used, that is, when management recommendations are required, their uncertainties, limitations, and shortcomings should be acknowledged. Therefore, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the effects of uncertainty on the estimated population growth rate. Overall, the results revealed that the population appeared stable or increasing, but with fluctuating catch rates. Under unfished conditions, management strategy simulations revealed that the mako shark's 2-year reproductive cycle had a higher finite population growth rate than the 3-year reproductive cycle, estimated at λ = 1.103, 95% [CI] = 1.034–1.176 year-1, and λ = 1.065, 95% [CI] = 1.005–1.125 year-1 of the total population for 2-year and 3-year reproductive cycles, respectively. On a sex-specific basis, males had λ values of 1.158, 95% [CI] = 1.062–1.260 year-1 and 1.108, 95% [CI] = 1.027–1.195 year-1, whereas females obtained values of 1.026, 95% [CI] = 0.922–1.098 year-1 and 1.009, 95% [CI] = 0.911–1.075 year-1 for 2-year and 3-year reproductive cycles, respectively. Demographic analysis indicated that protecting immature stages results in a higher population growth rate than protecting mature stages; for sex-specific management measures, protecting immature male sharks leads to a higher population growth rate than protecting mature male sharks, as well as higher than protecting immature females and mature females. The results suggest that sex-specific management measures are appropriate for the conservation and management of this species. Additionally, λ is sensitive to survival during juvenile and adult stages, which means that strict monitoring and reduction of fishing pressure during these stages are urgently needed to allow sustainable exploitation of this species. Ultimately, while this study focuses on a single population of Isurus oxyrinchus, it is expected that this modeling approach will apply to other shark species and taxa with data limited.

Acknowledgments I
中文摘要 II
Abstract III
Contents IV
LIST OF TABLES VI
LIST OF FIGURES VII
1. INTRODUCTION 1
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS 6
2.1 The study's geographical region and biological parameters 6
2.2 Life-history of the shortfin mako shark 6
2.3 Model development 7
2.4 Elasticity analysis 11
2.5 Mortality estimation 12
2.6 The demographic method incorporates uncertainty accounting 13
2.7 Size limits measures 15
3. RESULTS 17
3.1 Natural mortality estimates 17
3.2 Demographic analysis for the 2-year and 3-year reproductive cycle models 17
3.3 Stable stage distribution (w) and reproductive value (v) 18
3.4 Elasticity analysis 19
3.5 Size limits measures 20
4. DISCUSSION 22
4.1 Consideration of natural mortality 22
4.2 Demographic methods to approach mako shark stock assessment 23
4.3 Acknowledgment of uncertainty in life-history parameters 26
4.4 Elasticity analysis 30
4.5 Conservation problems and management strategies for the mako shark 31
5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 34
References 36

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