臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

私人運具是許多人生活中不可或缺的一部份，而車輛的使用帶來了二氧化碳的排放，為此各國政府實施諸多政策以期降低車輛帶來的碳排放，這些政策的其中之一便是推廣替代燃料車輛，而替代燃料車輛中最成功的莫過於電動車。使用電動車並不會直接消耗化石能源，因此可有效降低城市空氣污染，然而世界上許多的電力來源仍是來自於化石能源，使用這些電力的電動車，能否改善交通運輸帶來的碳排放，是現今推廣電動車時各界爭論不休的議題。
本研究以汽油及電動汽車與機車等車輛，以及再生能源對車輛碳排放帶來的影響進行研究，並使用系統動力學做為主要研究方法，在蒐集相關文獻與資料後，透過系統思考觀念，繪製出涵蓋人口、電動車、電力需求、燃油車與電力結構的因果回饋圖，並以因果回饋圖做為藍圖，結合蒐集的數據，建構出可模擬未來車輛與電力系統之動態變化的系統動力學量化模型，並設計出禁售燃油車、持續新增再生能源以及改善燃油車油耗共三個政策方案，透過模型進行情境模擬與政策分析，並觀察其減碳效益，以供未來決策者做為參考依據。
本研究發現若將三個政策擇一執行，持續新增再生能源能夠降低最多碳排放，而改善燃油車油耗的政策，比禁售燃油車有著更低的車輛碳排放；若將三個政策擇二執行，禁售燃油車並改善燃油車油耗的政策組合，能使車輛碳排放達成《溫室氣體減量及管理法》之目標，而持續增加再生能源並改善燃油車油耗的政策組合，則有著執行兩個政策的情境中最低的車輛與電力綜合碳排放；而同時實施三個政策方案則會有最佳減碳效果。

Private transport is an integral part of many people''s lives, but the use of vehicles causes a problem of carbon dioxide emissions. So public sectors have endeavored to implement policies for reduction of vehicle carbon emissions. One of which is the promotion of alternative fuel vehicles, and among them the most successful alternative is electric vehicle. The use of electric vehicle does not consume fossil fuel directly, so it can effectively reduce air pollution. However, many primary sources of electricity are fossil fuels. Whether the use of electric vehicles under the current energy scheme will improve carbon emissions remains debatable.
After relevant literature reviews and data collections, the study apply the system thinking to build a causal loop diagram, which includes population, electric and fuel vehicles, power demand, and the energy structure. Base on the causal loop diagram and data, we build a system dynamic model to simulate future variations of vehicles and electric systems. Several scenarios constituted by the three policies, including phase-out of fuel vehicles, increase of renewable energy, and improvement of fuel efficiency, were simulated by the SD model. The results of scenario analyses show the efficiencies of carbon reduction for various policies, which can support future decision-making.
Among the three single policies, increase of renewable energy will have the maximum reduction of carbon emissions, which is a better policy compared to phase-out of fuel vehicles. Under the scenarios of combining two single policies, phase-out of fuel vehicles and improvement of fuel efficiency will achieve the goal of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act in 2050. Meanwhile, two-policy scenario with increase of renewable energy and improvement of fuel efficiency will have the overall lowest carbon emissions of private vehicles and power system. Eventually, implementing three policies simultaneously will certainly have the best effect of carbon reduction.

論文審定書 i
致謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
第一章、前言 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究流程 4
1.4 研究範圍與限制 6
第二章、文獻回顧 7
2.1 電動車的機遇與挑戰 7
2.2 臺灣電力情勢 14
2.3 溫室氣體帶來的影響 20
2.4 系統動力學與其應用 27
第三章、模型建置 30
3.1 系統動力學建模流程 30
3.1.1. 因果回饋圖 32
3.1.2. 線流圖 34
3.2 資料蒐集 36
3.2.1. 人口概況 36
3.2.2. 車輛概況 38
3.2.3. 電力概況 45
3.2.4. 二氧化碳排放 51
3.3 系統動力學模型建置 54
3.3.1. 因果回饋圖 54
3.3.2. 線流圖 58
3.3.3. 創新擴散曲線 59
3.3.4. 車輛數量子系統 62
3.3.5. 車輛碳排放子系統 66
3.3.6. 電力結構子系統 69
3.3.7. 電力碳排放子系統 73
3.3.8. 政策目標子系統 76
3.3.9. 線流圖小結 79
第四章、結果與討論 80
4.1 模型檢驗 80
4.1.1. 單位一致性測試 82
4.1.2. 行為再造測試 83
4.2 情境模擬與分析 88
4.2.1. 零方案 90
4.2.2. 單一情境模擬與分析 93
4.2.3. 多重情境模擬與分析 102
4.2.4. 情境模擬綜合分析 109
第五章、結論與建議 115
5.1 結論 115
5.2 建議 118
參考文獻 119
中文文獻 119
英文文獻 124
附錄 148

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