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研究生(外文):MAI, TENG-CHIH
論文名稱(外文):A Research of Proposed Enhanced Z-numbers Applied to Project Management Performance Index Evaluation
外文關鍵詞:ZE-numbersEarned Value ManagementProject ManagementPerformance Index
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全球化、專業分工及資訊傳播快速的環境下,資源及市場需求變化比以往更加快速且複雜。許多企業改以專案來解決技術研發、市場競爭、監控管理的問題,使專案管理的角色越來越重要。實獲值管理(Earned Value Management,EVM)彙整了專案的成本、範圍和進度的資訊,是目前被廣泛使用的專案管理方法,透過計畫預定與實際執行完成的工作量及支出的成本比較,評估專案執行狀態是否依照計畫目標進行。
本研究以實獲值管理為基礎,結合擴展Z-numbers,提出改良擴展Z-numbers實獲值管理。以蒸餾塔建造專案作為案例,透過五個不同的情境模擬可能發生的投票情況,並計算進度績效指標及成本績效指標,比較本研究提出之方法及傳統EVM、模糊EVM、Z-numbers EVM、擴展Z-numbers EVM之間的差異。結果發現,擴展Z-number確實可以對Z-numbers進一步的約束,做出更為謹慎的決策。從中也發現在極端情境下,會使評估結果異常。經過本研究改良擴展Z-number後可以改善此問題,並同時將猶豫票數問題納入考量,使評估結果更為客觀。
In an environment of globalization, professional division of labor, and rapid information dissemination, resources and market demands are changing more rapid and complex than ever. Many enterprises use projects to solve the problems of technology development, market competition, management, which makes the role of project management increasingly important. Earned Value Management (EVM) is a widely used project management method that compiles information on the cost, scope, and progress of a project. The EVM compares the amount of work and cost spent on the project against the planned and actual implementation, and evaluates whether the project implementation status is in accordance with the goal of the project.
The evaluation of project progress is often fraught with uncertainty, unreliability, or difficulty in presentation, resulting in discrepancies between progress evaluation results and actual results, leading to inaccurate calculation of project metrics, and causing project managers to misjudge the status of the project. Previous scholars have combined EVM with fuzzy theory to overcome the problems that are uncertain or difficult to express. However, scholars subsequently pointed out that if only the project manager evaluates the progress, it will lead to subjective problems. Recently, scholars have proposed the fuzzy evaluation model of extended Z-numbers, which integrates the decision-making methods of individual and group evaluation, and solves the problem that the information is subjective or unreliable.
This study proposes a modified extended Z-numbers EVM, calculates schedule cost index (SCI) and cost performance index (CPI) by simulating possible voting situations in five different scenarios, and compares the difference between the method proposed in this study and traditional EVM, fuzzy EVM, Z-numbers EVM and ZE-numbers EVM. The results show that the proposed method in this study can further constrain Z-numbers and make more prudent decisions. It is also found that the evaluation results are abnormal in extreme situations. This problem can be improved by modified ZE-number proposed in this study, and the question of hesitant votes can be taken into account to make the evaluation results more objective.
摘 要 I
致謝詞 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 IX
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1 實獲值管理 5
2.2 模糊實獲值管理 13
2.3 小結 22
第三章 研究方法 23
3.1 資料蒐集 25
3.2 進度評估 26
3.3 實獲值計算 29
3.4 指標計算 34
3.5 瞭解專案整體進度 34
第四章 案例說明 36
4.1 資料集 36
4.2 進度評估 38
4.3 實獲值計算 41
4.4 指標計算 69
第五章 分析與討論 166
5.1 進度狀態及實獲值 166
5.2 CPI及SPI指標 166
5.3 小結 167
第六章 結論與建議 168
6.1 結論 168
6.2 管理意涵 169
6.3 未來建議 169
參考文獻 170

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