臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

季節性商品有明顯銷售季，銷售時間短，需求不確定，要在短時間內創造高利潤且如何訂定訂購量是業者的需面對的課題。因此本研究想透過需求與價格間的關係，商品價格越高消費者不容易買單，但價格越低反而能吸引消費者的目光，所以以折扣的方式來刺激消費者購買，讓銷售週期短的季節性商品有更多售出的機會。
所以針對有明顯銷售季的商品，在銷售結束後會面臨以殘值或較成本低的價格出清，甚至報廢方式處理，因此本研究根據以上商品特色發展出兩階段的銷售模型，為使得商品有更多售出機會賺取更多利潤，不會僅以殘值方式處理，一開始會以原價銷售，到某時間點時再提供折扣刺激需求進行第二階段銷售，過了銷售季商品才以殘值計算，以最大化淨利潤為目標，找出適合該產品的最佳訂購量、折扣時機與最佳折扣率，對以上進行探討。因此設計案例來進行實驗，透過窮舉法進行搜尋，再分析銷售中各利潤值與折扣率的變化。最終根據實驗分析結果，本研究發展的兩階段銷售模型相較無折扣的銷售模型，確實能夠提升總期望利潤，也根據實驗結果提供決策者訂購與折扣的策略。

Seasonal products have obvious sales seasons, the sales period is short, and the demand is uncertain. To create high profits in a short period, how to set the order quantity is a problem that the industry needs to face. Therefore, price is very important, the lower price, it can attract the attention of consumers. Therefore, this research wants to use discounts to increase demands, that seasonal products have more chances to sell.
Therefore, this research develops a two-stage sales model. In order to make products have more opportunity to sell and earn more profits, the original price is sold at the beginning, and provided a discount to increase demand at next stage. After the sales seasons, the residual value of the product is calculated. The aim of this research is maximize the net profit. To find the order quantity, discount timing and discount rate for the product. So design cases to experiments, search through the method of exhaustion, and then analyze the changes in the profit value and discount. Finally, according to the experimental analysis results, the two-stage sales model developed in this study is indeed more effective than the undiscounted sales model, and we also provide decision with an ordering and discount strategy based on the experimental results.

摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 2
1.3研究架構 2
第二章 文獻探討與回顧 4
2.1季節性商品 4
2.1.1季節性商品特性 4
2.1.2折扣與需求關係 4
2.1.3季節性商品促銷策略 5
2.2報童問題 6
2.2.1單期多次訂購 6
2.2.2需求對價格敏感 7
2.3需求相關函數 8
2.3.1需求與時間相關函數 8
2.3.2需求與價格相關函數 9
2.3.3需求與價格、時間相關函數 9
2.4小結 10
第三章 模型介紹與建構 11
3.1 問題描述 11
3.2 符號定義與研究假設限制 12
3.3 數學模式建構 13
3.4 求解步驟 17
3.5 例題設計 18
3.6 例題求解 20
第四章 實驗分析 24
4.1案例介紹 24
4.2案例測試－最佳折扣率 26
4.3案例測試－最佳折扣時機 35
4.4各項參數敏感度分析 47
4.4.1 β敏感度分析 47
4.4.2 α敏感度分析 54
4.4.3 K敏感度分析 61
4.4.4 獲利率敏感度分析 68
4.5小結 74
第五章 結論 76
5.1結論 76
5.2未來研究與建議 77
參考文獻 78
附錄 82

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