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研究生:劉美煊
研究生(外文):Mei-Xuan Liu
論文名稱:台灣電動機車需求分析
論文名稱(外文):Demand Analysis of Electric Motorcycle in Taiwan
指導教授:廖述誼廖述誼引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shu-Yi Liao
口試委員:曾偉君黃茂隆
口試委員(外文):Wei-Chun TsengMao-Lung Huang
口試日期:2023-06-16
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:應用經濟學系所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2023
畢業學年度:111
語文別:中文
論文頁數:48
中文關鍵詞:創新擴散理論電動機車補助政策換電站
外文關鍵詞:innovation diffusion theoryelectric motorcyclesubsidy policybattery swap stations
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:173
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:69
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
自2016年巴黎協定(Paris Agreement)生效以來,全球社會開始積極應對氣候變遷,旨在控制全球平均溫度上升幅度在攝氏2度以下,並力求控制在攝氏1.5度範圍內。而在台灣,機車做為民眾主要的交通工具,因其易操作、維修保養方便,且具有尺寸和機動性優勢,停車限制也較汽車少,已經成為民眾日常不可或缺的一部份。在全球綠能能源的重視下,電動車作為一項重要產品,以其環保優勢和性能,受到消費者越來越多的關注。隨著產業轉型的趨勢,台灣的電動機車產業正處於市場擴散的關鍵時期,政府和企業應積極促進電動機車產業的發展和普及,以提高其市佔率,實現運具電動化的目標。然而,不同地區的擴散程度和市場潛力存在差異,因此政策制定和產品定價策略的有效性可能受到影響。在這樣的背景下,本研究旨在探討如何有效預測創新產品在市場上的銷售量,並研究背後的政策效果。研究將採用Bass (1969)提出的創新擴散理論,分析台灣地區電動機車產業的銷售擴散型態,並深入研究各縣市的銷售狀況。
實證結果顯示創新係數和模仿係數在探討消費者行為方面具有非常重要的作用和良好的成效。研究中發現這兩種係數相互作用,共同影響了產品的市場擴散過程。而汰舊換新補貼政策和新購補貼政策對市場潛量都有顯著影響,尤其是新購補貼政策對市場潛量的影響更為顯著。此外,換電站數量的增加對市場潛量也有重要影響,換電站的增加可以提供更多的充電便利性,減少消費者對電池續航能力的擔憂,增加他們選擇電動機車的意願。因此,在制定政策和推動市場發展時,政府應重視這些因素的作用。
Since the implementation of the Paris Agreement in 2016, global society has actively responded to climate change with the aim of limiting the global average temperature increase to below 2 Celsius degrees, and striving to keep it within 1.5 Celsius degrees. In Taiwan, motorcycles serve as the primary means of transportation for the general public due to their ease of operation, convenient maintenance, compact size, maneuverability, and fewer parking restrictions compared to cars. As renewable energy gains increasing importance worldwide, electric vehicles have garnered more attention from consumers due to their environmental benefits and performance. With the trend of industrial transformation, Taiwan's electric motorcycle industry is at a critical period of market diffusion. The government and businesses should actively promote the development and popularization of electric motorcycles to increase their market share and achieve the goal of electrifying transportation. However, the extent of diffusion and market potential varies across different regions, which may affect the effectiveness of policy-making and product pricing strategies. In this context, this study aims to explore effective forecasting of the sales volume of innovative products in the market and investigate the underlying policy effects. The study will adopt Bass (1969) proposed innovation diffusion theory to analyze the sales diffusion patterns of the electric motorcycle industry in Taiwan and delve into the sales conditions in various cities and counties.
The empirical results demonstrate that the innovation coefficient and imitation coefficient play a crucial role and yield significant effects in understanding consumer behavior. The study reveals the interaction between these two coefficients, jointly influencing the market diffusion process of products. Both the scrappage and replacement subsidy policy and the new purchase subsidy policy have significant impacts on market potential, with the new purchase subsidy policy showing a more pronounced effect. Moreover, the increase in the number of battery swap stations also has a significant influence on market potential. The proliferation of battery swap stations can provide more charging convenience, reduce consumer concerns about battery range, and increase their willingness to choose electric motorcycles. Therefore, in formulating policies and promoting market development, the government should emphasize the role of these factors.
摘要 i
Abstract ii
圖目錄 iv
表目錄 v
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 4
第三節 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 各國運具電動化政策介紹 6
第二節 台灣電動機車產業發展 11
第三節 電動機車需求影響因素探討 14
第四節 創新擴散模型相關文獻 18
第三章 研究方法 20
第一節 創新擴散理論模型 20
第二節 模型建立 22
第三節 參數估計 24
第四章 實證結果 27
第一節 敘述性統計分析 27
第二節 模型估計結果分析 35
第五章 結論與建議 40
參考文獻 43
附錄 46
中文部分
交通部統計處,2023,111年民眾日常使用運具狀況調查摘要分析。
李昕,2023,主要國家發展運具電動化策略對臺灣之啟示.國家發展委員會競技研究年刊第23期。
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李國彬,2019,影響台灣各縣市電動機車普及率之因素。
李婕漪與葉智丞,2020,大學生購買電動機車行為之研究-以 Gogoro 為例. 危機管理學刊, 17(2), 101-110.
李銘尉與蔡錦裕,2007,創新擴散理論模式之應用-以 MP3 隨身聽產業為例. 資訊管理學報14(2): 27-48。
周宜德、曾振南與陳中邦,2018,台灣電動車產業政策與推廣措施之探討. 石油季刊54(3): 23-36。
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黃上晏、邱城英與廖妙羚,2015,台灣消費者購買電動機車意願之關鍵成功因素研究. 觀光與休閒管理期刊, 3(1), 139-152.
經濟部工業局,2017,電動機車產業發展推動計畫(3/4)。
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經濟部工業局,2019,電動機車產業零組件共通標準推動計畫(1/5)。
經濟部工業局,2020,電動機車產業零組件共通標準推動計畫(2/5)。
經濟部工業局,2020,智能電動車輛產業輔導推廣計畫(2/4)。
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英文部分
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