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研究生:蔡國裕
研究生(外文):Tsai, Kuo-Yu
論文名稱:影響地方政府廢輪胎回收量及中央政府廢輪胎清除處理量因素之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on the Factors Affecting the Amount of Waste Tires Collected by Local Governments and The Amount of Waste Tires Removed by the Central Government
指導教授:郭彥廉郭彥廉引用關係
指導教授(外文):Kuo, Yen-Lien
口試委員:胡均立林常青
口試委員(外文):Hu, Jin-LiLin, Chang-Ching
口試日期:2023-06-21
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:工程管理碩士在職專班
學門:工程學門
學類:綜合工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2023
畢業學年度:111
語文別:中文
論文頁數:60
中文關鍵詞:廢輪胎回收清除處理追蹤資料時間序列資料
外文關鍵詞:Waste TiresRecyclingDisposalPanel DataTime Series Data
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:45
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本研究探討的主題是影響台灣廢輪胎回收、清除處理量的因素,並以STATA統計軟體以計量分析方式來建構合適的分析模型。以台灣本島各地方縣市政府的廢輪胎回收量作為被解釋變數,建立追蹤資料模型(Panel Data Model),另以中央政府的廢輪胎清除處理量作為被解釋變數,建立時間序列資料模型(Time Series Data Model)。此兩種模型均是以月資料進行解析,其解釋變數的決定則是來自於廢輪胎市場上「供給」與「需求」的影響因素,評估其對廢輪胎回收清除處理量的關係。
影響各地方縣市政府歷年廢輪胎回收量的因素主要是「汽機車掛牌數量」,影響中央政府歷年廢輪胎清除處理量的因素有「輪胎銷售數量」、「輪胎進口數量」及「汽機車3年1個月前銷售量」等供給因素。本研究建立幾項研究假設變數,包含「回收補貼實質費率」、「能源價格」、「鋼筋實質價格」,各項結果呈現顯著負向關係。
建議政府可根據本研究模型中存在顯著正向關係的變數進行未來廢輪胎回收清除處理量的預測,並以民國105年發生囤積廢棄輪胎歷史事件為借鏡,除了進行預測以外,可提前佈署規劃廢輪胎去化量能。未來研究方面可更加深入的探討針對廢輪胎需求面替代品的相關因素,例如:廢輪胎需求替代品的相關「能源變數」,以及更深入的探討不同時期鋼筋實質價格與廢輪胎回收清除處理的影響層面。
This study mainly uses the STATA statistical software and the econometric analysis method to construct the “Panel Data Model” of the waste tire recycling amounts of local governments and the “Time Series Data Model” of the central government’s waste tire removal and processing amount. Next, the independent variables of the two models are based on the supply and demand factors of the waste tire recycling market.
The results of the study found that most of the explanatory variables on the supply side have significant correlations, such as sales of vehicles and tires, etc.; However, the explanatory variables on the demand side are few and have no significant correlations, such as the real prices of energy and rebar.
Finally, in terms of policy recommendations, it is first suggested that the government should use the relevant explanatory variables to predict the future generation or recycling of waste tires, such as tire sales, imports, vehicle sales, and the ratio of traffic accidents, to deploy in advance and planning waste tires. In the future, we can study the relevant explanatory variables for specific demanders by narrowing down the real price of energy and rebar over time, and perhaps we will be able to find the correlations.
摘要I
致謝VIII
目錄IX
表目錄XI
圖目錄XII
第一章 緒論1
1.1 研究背景與動機1
1.2 研究目的3
1.3 研究流程4
1.4 研究範圍6
第二章 文獻探討7
2.1 台灣廢棄物處理政策7
2.2 台灣廢輪胎處理方式10
2.3 影響廢棄物回收量與回收率因素及模型探討12
第三章 研究方法15
3.1 研究架構15
3.2 資料來源16
3.3 追蹤資料(Panel Data)分析方法24
3.4 時間序列資料(Time Series Data)分析方法28
第四章 資料分析結果31
4.1 模型變數選定31
4.2 各地方縣市政府歷年廢輪胎回收量因素34
4.3 中央政府歷年廢輪胎清除處理量因素42
第五章 結論與建議52
5.1 研究結論52
5.2 政策建議54
5.3 研究限制與未來研究54

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