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研究生:顏瑞宏
研究生(外文):YEN, JUI-HUNG
論文名稱:威權語境下的中共策略溝通實踐與臺灣社會的反應
論文名稱(外文):The practice of China authorities’ strategic communications within the authoritarian context and the response from Taiwan
指導教授:胡光夏胡光夏引用關係
指導教授(外文):HU, GUANG-SHIASH
口試委員:陶聖屏謝奇任莫大華劉嘉薇傅文成
口試委員(外文):TAO, SHENG-PINGHSIEH, CHI-JENMOH, TA-HUALIU, JIA-WEIFU, WEN-CHENG
口試日期:2023-05-01
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國防大學
系所名稱:政治學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2023
畢業學年度:111
語文別:中文
論文頁數:283
中文關鍵詞:閱兵威權擴張策略溝通戰爭風險感知戰狼外交繞島巡航
外文關鍵詞:autocracy promotionisland patrolparadestrategic communicationwar risk perceptionwolf warrior diplomacy
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所有的戰略研究都不能不深入審視策略溝通,因為它一直是任何戰略及活動得以成功的關鍵要素。當前多數國家的策略溝通概念主要脫胎於西方民主國家的戰略思想,但在實踐方面卻沒有照套西方國家的理論;與策略溝通相關的研究也多依附在西方民主國家的背景下進行,但大部分的策略溝通實踐卻發生在西方以外的地區,臺海區域即是顯例。
隨著美中對抗不斷升級,兩岸關係陷入向下螺旋,中共對臺灣的策略溝通布局持續增壓,針對性與破壞性日趨嚴峻。本研究旨在探討做為亞洲威權重心的中共,如何發展及實踐策略溝通,並從臺灣視角出發,以在地素材為體,藉由實證研究的勘探,深入考察中共在政治、外交及軍事等領域的策略溝通行動,如何面向全球與兩岸場域發揮影響力,以促進威權擴張之目的;另進一步檢查臺灣社會在中共長期性的策略溝通威脅下,如何評估及應對兩岸戰爭風險。
本研究嘗試勾勒中共策略溝通的全球在地化實踐,還原臺灣所處的溝通環境與遭遇;繼以中共閱兵、戰狼外交及繞島巡航等議題,採取實用主義立場,分別透過批判論述分析、資料探勘與機器學習等方法,對中共在政治、外交及軍事層面的溝通活動進行觀察與檢驗,將其推進策略溝通的論述策略、主題框架與戰略意圖等實踐經驗概念化;最後聚焦臺灣在地的反應,運用文獻分析法,探討臺灣民眾的戰爭風險感知、情感,以及國防政策支持意向,做為盤點臺灣勝算並提出預應之道的錨點。
本研究指出,中共迄今並未擁有完整的策略溝通理論及體系,其核心學說與實踐經驗,基本上仍不脫大外宣、輿論戰等訊息操作;在地化的發展方針,則在籌建一套能使西方學說適應威權體制與中共政治文化的策略溝通系統,通過機構改革、學術建設、媒體融合、渠道拓展,以及網軍與內容農場培植等措施,強化中共中央對國家宣傳機構的指揮及控制,確保策略溝通運作不與「以黨領政」、「黨管媒體」及「媒體姓黨」等政治原則脫鉤,並提高國家媒體對外輸出中共意識形態與國家意志的跨媒體傳播能力及影響力。
研究結果發現,中共策略溝通在政治、外交及軍事領域的實踐,具有「內優於外的策略溝通格局」、「與美鬥爭的策略溝通重心」、「效果導向的策略溝通行動」及「民族復興的策略溝通景觀」等四項特徵,證明了中共的策略溝通實踐大多仍依賴單向或雙向不對稱溝通,且涉及恫嚇、欺騙等違反民主與道德的不透明方法;溝通權力由中共中央所掌握,溝通布局亦由中共中央所統籌,出於維繫政權之目的,觸發國家內部的自我傳播經常才是對外溝通的優先意圖,與美鬥爭是如此,訴諸民族復興的宏大敘事亦不例外。
此外,基於對臺灣民眾傳播行為與國防政策態度的檢查,臺灣在思索如何反制的方面,應當先行釐清幾個概念:控制還是對話;靠美還是靠己;理智還是情感;中共還是中國;效果還是誠信。本研究根據上述反思,研提臺灣社會或可一試的因應策略,包括「尋求共識調和矛盾」、「合理看待美國態度」、「既要能戰也要敢戰」、「爭取中國人民支持」及「防範輿論槓桿操作」等。
All strategic studies must look deeply at strategic communication, as it has always been a key element in the success of any strategy and activity. At present, the concept of strategic communication in most countries is mainly derived from the strategic thinking of Western democracies, but it has not copied the theories of Western countries in practice. Most of the research related to strategic communication is also carried out in the context of Western democracies, but most of the practice of strategic communication takes place outside the West, such as the Taiwan Strait.
With the escalation of confrontation between the United States and China, cross-strait relations have fallen into a downward spiral. The CCP’s strategic communication plan continues to increase pressure on Taiwan, and its objectives are becoming clearer and more destructive. This research aims to explore how the CCP, as the authoritarian gravity centers in Asia, develops and practices strategic communication. From the perspective of Taiwan and the exploration of empirical research, this paper deeply examines how the CCP’s strategic communication actions in the political, diplomatic and military fields exert influence on the global and cross-strait areas to promote the purpose of autocracy promotion. Furthermore, It examine how Taiwanese society assesses and responds to the risk of cross-strait war under the threat of the CCP’s long-term strategic communication.
The study outlines the global localization practice of CCP strategic communication, and restores the communication environment and experience in Taiwan. Then, on topics such as the CCP’s military parade, wolf warrior diplomacy and Taiwan island patrol, the study adopts new pragmatism stance, and observes and examinates the CCP’s communication activities at the political, diplomatic and military fields through critical discourse analysis, data mining and machine learning. This study then conceptualizes the practical experience of the CCP’s discourse strategy, thematic framework, and strategic intention to promote strategic communication. Finally, focusing on local response, the study assessed Taiwan's chances of success and proposed ways to respond by reviewing and evaluating documents of the Taiwanese perception on war risk, affective responses, and the propensity of defense policy support.
It finds out that the CCP has not yet possessed a complete theory and system of strategic communication. CCP’s core doctrine and practical experience are basically still not separated from information manipulations such as grand external propaganda and public opinion warfare. The localized development policy is to prepare a set of strategic communication systems that can adapt Western doctrines to the authoritarian system and the CCP’s political culture. The CCP Central Committee strengthens its command and control over state propaganda institutions through institutional reform, academic construction, media integration, channel expansion, and the cultivation of cyber troops and content farms. Its purpose is to ensure that strategic communication is not decoupled from political principles such as “one-party dominant system”, “party-controlled media” and “media’s absolute loyalty to the party”. In addition, it can improve the cross-media communication ability and influence of the state media to export the CCP’s ideology and national will.
The result shows that the practice of CCP strategic communication in the political, diplomatic and military fields has five characteristics: “strategic communication toward internal better than external”, “strategic communication focus on competition with the United States”, “effect-oriented strategic communication action” and “strategic communication spectacles of national rejuvenation”. These four characteristics prove that most of the CCP’s strategic communication practice still relies on one-way or two-way asymmetric communication. It also involves intimidation, deception and other opaque methods that violate democracy and morality. The power of communication is held by the CCP Central Committee, and the communication plan is also coordinated by the CCP Central Committee. For the purpose of maintaining political power, to trigger auto-communication within the country is often the priority intention of external communication, as is the competition against the US, and the meta-narrative of national rejuvenation is no exception.
In addition, based on the examination of Taiwanese people’s communication behavior and attitude towards national defense policy, Taiwan should first clarify several issues when thinking about how to counteract: control or dialogue; rely on the US or itself; reason or emotion; the CCP or PRC; the effect or integrity. Based on the above reflections, this study proposes strategies that Taiwanese society may try, including “seeking consensus to reconcile contradictions”, “taking a reasonable view on the US attitude”, “being able to fight and daring to fight”, “winning the support of the Chinese people” and “preventing the manipulation of public opinion”.
第一章 研究旨趣與問題意識 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機、目的與問題 5
第三節 理論基礎與研究取向 8
第四節 研究方法 25
第五節 章節架構 37
第二章 威權國家的策略溝通發展與中共在地化實踐 39
第一節 前言 39
第二節 策略溝通典範的遞嬗 41
第三節 學術研究的現況 48
第四節 民主與威權國家的策略溝通發展輪廓 55
第五節 中共策略溝通的在地化實踐 65
第六節 小結 89
第三章 中共建政70週年閱兵活動的官方論述策略 93
第一節 前言 93
第二節 閱兵論述的儀式觀與中共閱兵歷史的流變 94
第三節 CDA途徑與DHA的操作策略 99
第四節 閱兵論述與政治實踐 103
第五節 習近平「新時代」的意識形態再建構 110
第六節 小結 113
第四章 外交新常態?以主題及網絡建模技術探索中共Twitter外交的戰狼溝通策略 116
第一節 前言 116
第二節 中共宣傳理論與戰狼媒體外交 117
第三節 機器學習結合辭典的分析方法與設計 125
第四節 戰狼外交主題及語意分析結果 130
第五節 小結 137
第五章 從戰略威嚇到迷因變異:中共繞島巡航溝通訊息的社群流動與演化 141
第一節 前言 141
第二節 中共繞島威嚇與策略溝通研究 143
第三節 機器學習結合社會網絡分析的方法操作與設計 150
第四節 溝通主題、渠道類型與訊息變異分析 156
第五節 小結 164
第六章 臺灣社會的兩岸戰爭風險感知與國防態度:一個臺海戰略做為風險溝通的觀點 167
第一節 前言 167
第二節 美國臺海戰略與臺灣社會的感知 169
第三節 戰略及戰爭風險感知與情感、國防態度之聯繫 172
第四節 小結 177
第七章 結論 181
第一節 中共策略溝通在政治、外交及軍事領域的實踐 181
第二節 臺灣社會因應中共策略溝通的反思 189
第三節 研究限制與未來研究建議 200
參考書目 204
附錄1 281
附錄2 282
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