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研究生:杜偉銘
研究生(外文):TU,WEI-MING
論文名稱:過度戰略承諾的根源:阿富汗的案例研究
論文名稱(外文):The Source of Excessive Strategic Commitment: A Case Study of Afghanistan
指導教授:楊仕樂楊仕樂引用關係
指導教授(外文):YANG, SHIH-YUEH
口試委員:唐欣偉張婷婷
口試委員(外文):TANG,HSIN-WEICHANG,TING-TING
口試日期:2023-04-12
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國防大學
系所名稱:戰略研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:國際事務學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2023
畢業學年度:111
語文別:中文
論文頁數:185
中文關鍵詞:阿富汗戰爭守勢新古典現實主義過度擴張利益團體臺灣
外文關鍵詞:War in AfghanistanDefensive neoclassical realismOverextensionInterest groupTaiwan
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:177
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:19
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
2021年,美國終於還是撤出了阿富汗,結束了長達20年的戰爭。在美軍撤退最後階段的倉皇狼狽,簡直是越南的翻版。這讓人不禁感慨,何以美國又再次重演了越戰的錯誤?如果美國如今的辯解是正確的,阿富汗的撤軍不影響美國對盟邦的承諾,那當初又為何要在推翻塔利班之後,繼續駐留?對此,本文主張,這類「過度」戰略承諾,就像守勢新古典現實主義所說的「過度」擴張一般,是一種從戰爭利益團體催生出來的「帝國迷思」,事發之初會先鼓吹此一戰略承諾的重要性,以為後續預算的增長與持續投入建立基礎,隨著時間推移才改變論述為撤退提供正當理由。本文將以阿富汗進行案例研究,驗證此一理論的推論,並為當今的臺灣提供參照與警惕。
In 2021, the United States finally withdrew from Afghanistan, ending this 20-year war. The panic in the final stage of the U.S. retreat was almost a replica of the withdrawal from Vietnam. This event makes people wonder why the United States repeated the mistake of the Vietnam War. If the US's current justification is correct, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan does not affect the existing commitment of the US to its allies, why did the US continue to stay after overthrowing the Taliban? This article argues that this is a kind of "excessive" strategic commitment, just like the notion of "excessive" expansion in defensive neoclassical realism. This is the product of "myth of empire" spawned by war-profiting interest groups. They overstated the importance of the strategic commitment first to establish the basis for subsequent budget growth and continued investment, and changed the narrative over time to justify a retreat only when the commitment could no longer be sustained. This article will take Afghanistanas a case study and provide reference and vigilance for Taiwan today.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與問題 1
第二節 文獻探討 4
第三節 研究架構 10
第二章 阿富汗無戰略重要性 17
第一節 軍事上位置的利益 17
第二節 經濟上交通線與資源開發的利益 26
第三節 道義與意識形態上推廣民主的價值 34
第三章 阿富汗戰略重要性的渲染與退潮 43
第一節 政界的論述 43
第二節 學界的論述 54
第三節 媒體的論述 61
第四章 阿富汗戰爭期間的利益勾結 69
第一節 傳統軍火大廠 70
第二節 發動機製造大廠 78
第三節 軍用車輛及後勤裝備製造大廠 81
第五章 結論 93
第一節 研究發現 93
第二節 研究貢獻 95
第三節 研究展望 96
參考書目 99
附錄一 布希政府阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 113
附錄二 歐巴馬政府阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 117
附錄三 川普政府阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 123
附錄四 拜登政府阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 125
附錄五 美國國務院阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 127
附錄六 美國國防部阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 135
附錄七 美國蘭德智庫阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 141
附錄八 美國戰略與國際研究中心阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 145
附錄九 美國布魯金斯學會阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 155
附錄十 美國有線電視新聞網阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 167
附錄十一 美國華盛頓郵報阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 171
附錄十二 美國洛杉磯時報阿富汗戰爭相關文獻資料 181

一、 中文部分
(一) 專書譯著:
Jack L. Snyder著,于鐵軍譯,2007。《帝國的迷思:國內政治與對外擴張》(Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition)。北京:北京大學出版社。
(二) 網際網路
〈阿富汗與絲綢之路〉,《聯合國教科文組織》,<https://zh.unesco.org/silkroad/countries-alongside-silk-road-routes/afuhan>。
朱茜,2020/10/14,〈中國油氣管道工程建設現狀與發展前景〉,《前瞻經濟學人》,<https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/201014-08c97975.html>。
施慧中,2021/8/17,〈捍衛美軍撤離阿富汗 拜登:我是美國總統,責任到我為止〉,《公視新聞網》,<https://news.pts.org.tw/article/540503>。
林韋伶,2021/8/17,〈阿富汗戰爭多燒錢?美國納稅人6.5兆美元血汗錢蒸發 這些錢都用在哪〉,《聯合新聞網》,<https://udn.com/news/story/6839/5678815>。
黃治金,2021/8/28,〈阿富汗應對決策飽受批評 拜登對盟友的傷害遠大於川普〉,《聯合新聞網》,<https://udn.com/news/story/122398/5706516>。
維斯卡斯・潘迪、沙達布・納茲米,2021/8/31,〈黑鷹、悍馬上陣,美軍撤走後的塔利班是何種規格的武裝?這可能是一個擁有空軍的極端組織〉,《BBC NEWS中文》,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-58385297>。
劉文瑜,2021/8/31,〈美軍撤出喀布爾機場前廢除飛機與裝甲車軍備〉,《中央通訊社》,<https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202108310027.aspx>。
安東尼・澤克爾,2021/9/1,〈拜登:美國從阿富汗撤軍標誌著武力-改造他國時代結束〉,《BBC NEWS中文》,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-58406406>。
羅艷華,2021/12/21,〈美國民主輸出的戰略手段與實現困境〉,《US-China Perception Monitor》,<http://cn3.uscnpm.org/model_item.html?action=view&table=article&id=27467>。
盧映孜,2022/8/31,〈20年阿富汗戰爭落幕 美軍2461人陣亡、債留子孫〉,《中央通訊社》,<https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202108310049.aspx>。
劉佩真,2022/11/1,〈台積電布局海外〉,《經濟日報》,<https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/6730513>。
二、 英文部分
(一) 官方文件
“Rare Earths Statistics and Information”,USGS,<https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/rare-earths-statistics-and-information>.
“Top 10 largest copper producing countries in 2021”,USGS,<https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/copper-2021-pdf>.
“Top 10 largest iron producing countries in 2021”,USGS,<https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/iron-2021-pdf>.
“Top 10 largest rare earth producing countries in 2021”,USGS,<https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/rare-earths-statistics-and-information>.
2007/12/14,“Preliminary Non-Fuel Mineral Resource Assessment of Afghanistan 2007”,USGS,<https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1214/>.
Antony Blinken,2021/1/28,“Secretary Blinken’s Call with Afghan President Ghani”,U.S. Department of State,<https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-afghan-president-ghani/>.
Barack Hussein Obama,2009/3/27,“A New Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2009/03/27/a-new-strategy-afghanistan-and-pakistan>.
Barack Hussein Obama,2013/6/25,“Readout of President Obama’s Video Teleconference with President Karzai”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/25/readout-president-obama-s-video-teleconference-president-karzai>.
Barack Hussein Obama,2015/3/24,“U.S.-Afghanistan Joint Statement”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/24/us-afghanistan-joint-statement>.
Colin Powell,2004/3/17,“Remarks With President Hamid Karzai of the Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan”,U.S. Department of State,March 17, 2004,<https://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/former/powell/remarks/30494.htm>.
Donald John Trump,2017/8/21,“Excerpts from President Donald J. Trump’s Remarks”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/excerpts-president-donald-j-trumps-remarks/>.
Donald John Trump,2020/2/28,“Statement from the President”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/statement-from-the-president-14/>.
George Walker Bush,2004/3/19,“President Bush Reaffirms Resolve to War on Terror, Iraq and Afghanistan”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2004/03/20040319-3.html>.
George Walker Bush,2004/6/15,“President Bush Meets with President Karzai of Afghanistan”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2004/06/20040615-4.html>.
George Walker Bush,2006/9/29,“Discusses Global War on Terror”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/09/20060929-3.html>.
George Walker Bush,2008/12/15,“President Bush Participates in Press Availability with Afghanistan President Karzai in Afghanistan”,National Archives and Records Administration,<https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2008/12/20081215.html>.
Hillary Clinton,2011/9/22,“Remarks at the New Silk Road Ministerial Meeting”,U.S. Department of State,<https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/09/173807.htm>.
Joe Biden,2021/2/19,“Remarks by President Biden at the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference”,THE WHITE HOUSE,<https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/19/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-2021-virtual-munich-security-conference/>.
Joe Biden,2021/3/25,“Remarks by President Biden in Press Conference”,THE WHITE HOUSE,<https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/25/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-conference/>.
Joe Biden,2021/4/14,“Remarks by President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan”,THE WHITE HOUSE,<https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/>.
Joe Biden,2021/8/30,“Statement by President Joe Biden”,THE WHITE HOUSE,<https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/30/statement-by-president-joe-biden/>.
(二) 網際網路
“2021 Annual Report”,General Dynamics,<https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2021/ar/GD_2021-AR_Final_Bookmarked.pdf>.
“2021 Annual Reports ”,L3Harris Technologies,<https://www.l3harris.com/investors#p3>.
“2021 Annual Reports”,Leidos,< https://investors.leidos.com/financial-information/annual-reports/default.aspx >.
“2021 FINANCIAL REPORTS ”,Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation,<https://investors.boozallen.com/financial-information?field_nir_sec_form_group_target_id%5B%5D=471&field_nir_sec_date_filed_value=2021#views-exposed-form-widget-sec-filings-table>.
“2021 Financial Reports”,Textron Systems,<https://investor.textron.com/investors/financial-reports/financial-summary/default.aspx>.
“2021 Financial statements”,OSHKOSH,<https://investors.oshkoshcorp.com/financials/annual-and-quarterly-results/default.aspx>.
“39TH AIR BASE WING”,Incirlik Air Base,<https://www.incirlik.af.mil/>.
“About Us”,Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation,<https://www.boozallen.com/about.html>.
“Annual Report”,General Electric Company,<https://www.ge.com/investor-relations/annual-report>.
“Boeing Company”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/topic/Boeing-Company>.
“COMPANY”,Textron Systems,<https://www.textron.com/About/Company>.
“Corruption Perceptions Index”,Transparency International,<https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021>.
“Democracy Index 2021”,The Economist Group,<https://www.economistgroup.com/group-news/economist-intelligence/democracy-index-2021-less-than-half-the-world-lives-in-a-democracy>.
“General Dynamics Corp”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/topic/General-Dynamics-Corp>.
“General Electric Company”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/topic/General-Electric>.
“Honor The Fallen”,Militray Times,<https://thefallen.militarytimes.com/>.
“Information about Nord Stream”,Nord Stream,<https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/nordstream_part1.html>.
“Iron Ore Index”,S&P Global,<https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/our-methodology/price-assessments/metals/iodex-iron-ore-metals-price-assessment>.
“Lithium”,Trading Economics,<https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium>.
“Lockheed Martin Corporation”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/topic/Lockheed-Martin-Corporation>.
“Market Cap”,BOEING,<https://investors.boeing.com/investors/overview/default.aspx>.
“Market Cap”,Lockheed Martin,<https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/financial-information/quarterly-results>.
“Market Cap”,Northrop Grumman,<https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/e607d90f-64e6-485e-8ac6-4214de7079bf>.
“Market Cap”,Raytheon Technologies,<https://investors.rtx.com/financial-information/annual-reports>.
“Northrop Grumman Corporation”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/topic/Northrop-Grumman-Corporation>.
“Operation Enduring Freedom - US Weapons”,Global Security,<https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/enduring-freedom-weapons.htm>.
“Operation Freedom's Sentinel”,U.S. Department of Defense,<https://media.defense.gov/2018/May/21/2001919976/-1/-1/1/FY2018_LIG_OCO_OFS2_MAR2018_3.PDF>.
“Our History”,L3Harris Technologies,<https://www.l3harris.com/company/our-history>.
“Our History”,Leidos,<https://www.leidos.com/company/history>.
“Our History”,Lockheed Martin,<https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/history.html>.
“Our story”,OSHKOSH,<https://www.oshkoshcorp.com/en/story>.
“Raytheon Company”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/topic/Raytheon-Company>.
“Refined Copper Prices”,COCHILCO,<https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Estadisticas/Bases%20de%20Datos/Precio-de-los-Metales.aspx>.
“Road freight transport prices”,Della Truck Transport,<https://della.eu/cost/>.
“Textron Inc”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/topic/Textron-Inc>.
“U.S. 5th Fleet”,U.S. Naval Forces Central Command,<https://www.cusnc.navy.mil/>.
“United Technologies Corporation”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-Technologies-Corporation>.
1998,“Diego Garcia”,Britannica,June,<https://www.britannica.com/place/Diego-Garcia-island-Indian-Ocean>.
1999/7,“Afghanistan”,Britannica,<https://www.britannica.com/place/Afghanistan/Drainage>.
2004/12,“Top 100 arms companies, 2021”,SIPRI,<https://sipri.org/visualizations/arms-industry-2022/top-100-interactive>.
2008/9/25,“Combined Task Force 150 Thwarts Criminal Activities”,UNITED STATES AFRICA COMMAND,<http://www.africom.mil/getArticle.asp?art=2137>.
2009/6/11,“Pentagon increases M-ATV requirement”,Jane's Defence Weekly,<https://janes.ihs.com/CustomPages/Janes/DisplayPage.aspx?DocType=News&ItemId=+++1180431&Pubabbrev=JDW>.
2011/6/28,“Textron Marine & and ystems To Supply U.S. Army with 65 Additional Armored Security Vehieles”,Textron Systems,<https://investor.textron.com/news/news-releases/press-release-details/2011/Textron-Marine--Land-Systems-to-Supply-US-Army-with-65-Additional-Armored-Security-Vehicles/default.aspx>.
2015/3/24,“General Dynamics Awarded 23Million for Buffalo Vehicle Upgrades”,General Dynamics,<https://www.gd.com/Articles/2015/03/24/general-dynamics-awarded-23-million-buffalo-vehicle-upgrades>.
2015/9/29,“Textron Systems Awarded Contract To Provide An Additional 55 Comando™ Select Armored Vehieles To Afghan National Army”,Textron Systems,<https://investor.textron.com/news/news-releases/press-release-details/2015/Textron-Systems-Awarded-Contract-to-Provide-an-Additional-55-COMMANDOTM-Select-Armored-Vehicles-to-Afghan-National-Army/default.aspx>.
2020/12/17,“Desert Shield/Desert Storm”,Naval History and Heritage Command,<https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-and-operations/middle-east/shield-storm.html>.
2022/4/15,“U.S. lawmakers signal support for Taiwan in visit”,NPR,<https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/1093003540/us-lawmakers-signal-support-for-taiwan-in-visit>.
Andrew Kuchins、Frederick Starr、David Gordon、Thomas Sanderson,2009/12/17,“The Northern Distribution Network and the Modern Silk Road”,CSIS,<https://www.csis.org/analysis/northern-distribution-network-and-modern-silk-road>.
Andrew Mradin,2021/10/25,“Reconsidering U.S. Decisionmaking Within NATO After the Fall of Kabul”,RAND CORPORATION,<https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/10/reconsidering-us-decisionmaking-within-nato-after-the.html>.
Anthony Cordesman,2018/9/12,“Telling the Truth About the War in Afghanistan”,CSIS,<https://www.csis.org/analysis/telling-truth-about-war-afghanistan>.
Aun Ali、Teresita Schaffer,2004/4/2,“Afghanistan's Unrelenting Challenges”,CSIS,<https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/sam69.pdf>.
Benjamin Wittes,2021/9/9,“Remembering the Gains of the Afghanistan War”,The Brookings Institution,<https://www.lawfareblog.com/remembering-gains-afghanistan-war>.
Bob Pool,2001/11/15,“Untapped Gems Could Enrich Afghans, Geologist Says”,Los Angeles Times,<https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2001-nov-15-me-4367-story.html>.
Christiane Amanpour,2004/10/9,“Afghans vote in historic election”,CNN,<https://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/10/08/afghanistan.elections/>.
Dennis M. Gormley、Andrew S. Erickson,、Jingdong Yuan,2014/9/30,“A Potent Vector:Assessing Chinese Cruise Missile Developments”,National Defense University Press,<https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/577568/a-potent-vector-assessing-chinese-cruise-missile-developments/>.
Derek Grossman,2021/8/17,“Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers”,RAND CORPORATION,<https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/08/collapse-in-afghanistan-early-insights-from-rand-researchers.html>.
Derek Grossman,2021/9/21,“China and Pakistan See Eye to Eye on the Taliban-Almost”,RAND CORPORATION,<https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/09/china-and-pakistan-see-eye-to-eye-on-the-taliban-almost.html>.
Dianne Saenz、Pete Wilmoth、Leah Polk,2021/8/17,“Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers”,RAND CORPORATION,<https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/08/collapse-in-afghanistan-early-insights-from-rand-researchers.html>.
Dianne Saenz、Pete Wilmoth、Leah Polk,2021/8/17,“Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers”,RAND CORPORATION,<https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/08/collapse-in-afghanistan-early-insights-from-rand-researchers.html>.
Fareed Zakaria,2021/4/16,“Biden is right. It’s time to end the forever war in Afghanistan”,The Washington Post,<https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden-is-right-its-time-to-end-the-forever-war-in-afghanistan/2021/04/15/b27ed6be-9e26-11eb-8005-bffc3a39f6d3_story.html>.
Huizhong Wu,2022/4/4,“Pelosi tells Taiwan US commitment to democracy is ironclad”,AP NEWS,<https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-asia-beijing-nancy-pelosi-taipei-938933cfaea62b31e7577b0a2a4f7006>.
Ivo Daalder,2002/3/10,“Expanding War Now Would Pose Dangers”,BROOKINGS,<https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/expanding-war-now-would-pose-dangers/>.
James Antle,2008/3/4,“Choosing wars”,Los Angeles Times,<https://www.latimes.com/opinion/la-op-antle-continetti4mar04-story.html>.
Jim Dobbins,2021/4/26,“To Lose a War”,RAND CORPORATION,<https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/04/to-lose-a-war.html>.
John Blake,2009/8/19,“Afghanistan's untold story: Stability, tourists, miniskirts”,CNN,<https://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/08/19/afghan.untold/index.html>.
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William Galston,2021/8/27,“How America’s response to 9/11 contributed to our national decline”, BROOKINGS,<https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/08/27/how-americas-response-to-9-11-contributed-to-our-national-decline/>.

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