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研究生:黑馬修
研究生(外文):Matthew Christopher Blackwell
論文名稱:中國的民族復興悖論:中共正當性的利益競爭
論文名稱(外文):China''s National Rejuvenation Paradox: the CCP''s Competing Interests of Legitimacy
指導教授:黎寶文黎寶文引用關係
指導教授(外文):Li, Pao-Wen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:中國與亞太區域研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:區域研究學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2023
畢業學年度:111
語文別:英文
論文頁數:99
中文關鍵詞:二級博弈中美關係核心利益合法性中共戰略競爭CAI
外文關鍵詞:two-level gameUS-China relationscore interestslegitimacyCCPstrategic competitionCAI
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近年來,對中國持續崛起及中共之民族偉大復興雄心的預期急劇下降。許多有關中國崛起的學術文獻都預測,中國的經濟最終將令美國相形見絀,並伴隨著主導東亞乃至全球政治所需的硬實力。
然而,在後疫情時代,出現了一種新的學術文學角度,儘管還處於早期階段,這群研究人員已經開始質疑中國的持續崛起,甚至是否有能力維持此前所認為之超越美國的經濟增長率。
本文利用修改版的多層次博弈模型來解釋限制中共領導層保持絕對控制,和繼續成長為全球超級大國的能力的結構性因素。 傳統的二級博弈論分析政府在國內和國際層面的決策。
我開發的修改版本利用了中美戰略競爭獨有的第三個層次。 有必要將這一層面與一般國際層面分開,因為它對中國與其他第三國關係的影響普遍存在著。 本文將該模型應用於以失敗告終的中歐 CAI 談判,並強調中共領導層將國內穩定和政權生存放在首位。
Projections for the continued rise of China and the CCP’s ambitions for a great national rejuvenation have taken a precipitous fall in recent years. Much of academic literature regarding China’s rise predicted an economy that would eventually dwarf that of the United States and the accompanying hard power necessary to dominate East Asia and eventually global politics. However, in the post-Covid-19 pandemic era, a new brand of overreach literature has emerged. While still in its early stages, this group of researchers have begun to question China’s continued rise and even its ability to maintain an economic growth rate capable of surpassing the United States as previously believed. This paper utilizes a modified multilevel game model to explain the structural factors limiting CCP leadership’s ability to both maintain absolute control and continue to growth into a global superpower. Traditional two-level game theory analyzes a government’s decision-making at the domestic and international levels. The modified version I develop utilizes a third level unique to the US-China strategic competition. The necessity to separate this level from the general international level arises from the prevalence of its influence across China’s other third country relations. This paper applies the model to the EU-China CAI negotiations that ended in failure and underscores CCP leadership’s prioritization of domestic stability and regime survival above all else.
Thesis Validation Letter i
Acknowledgements ii
Abstract (Chinese) iii
Abstract (English) iv
Table of Contents v
Introduction 1
Chapter 1: Multilevel Games 8
1.1 Literature Review 8
1.2 The Model 20
Chapter 2: Party, State, Society 31
2.1 The Party-State 31
2.2 The Society 35
2.3 Legitimacy and “Core Interests” 39
Chapter 3: Strategic Competition 52
3.1 Core Interests Clash 56
Chapter 4: EU-China CAI 64
Conclusion 78
Reference 84
Appendix 93
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