臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來，能源安全績效評估已成為新興的研究議題。然而不同研究對能源安全的定義，指標的分配與績效計算的方式皆有所不同。本研究分為兩階段，第一階段延續Wu, Chung, & Huang (2021) 的能源安全定義，研究年度與能源安全指標，使用4As、過去能源效率與政府治理六構面衡量全球125國能源安全績效。然而本研究將研究方法從原有之主成分分析與資料包絡分析-保證區間技術 (PCA/DEA-AR) 改良為主成分分析與資料包絡分析-麥氏生產力指數-保證區間技術 (PCA/DEA-MPI-AR)。此舉不僅保留Wu et al. (2021) 在績效分數上的鑑別度，更修正該研究沒有使用衡量跨時間維度工具的潛在問題。研究結果顯示亞塞拜然 (AZE) 之跨期能源安全績效表現最佳；最終再將研究結果進行分群，觀察不同國家由1997至2017年能源績效之變化情形。

第二階段使用之研究方法與第一階段相同，不同之處在於更換構面與遺漏值過多之指標，研究範圍從全球125國聚焦至經濟合作暨發展組織 (OECD) 32國，研究時間為2000年至2018年。並於進行PCA/DEA-AR後使用拔靴法 (bootstrap) 檢驗整體受評單位之信賴區間，以更客觀地推估進退步情形。研究結果顯示丹麥 (DNK)、英國 (GBR)、紐西蘭 (NZL) 與瑞典 (SWE) 為OECD國家中能源安全績效穩定進步之國家。而透過拔靴法可推論該組織整體之變化趨勢。

本研究之研究結果除可做為決策者參考依據外，研究方法中將麥氏生產力指數 (malmquist productivity index) 與保證區間技術 (assurance region) 結合為本研究首創，可提供未來研究者有效衡量跨期績效之工具。

Energy security performance (ESP) has become a popular research topic recently. While the definition of energy security, the selection of each indicator, and the calculating methods vary with different researches. Our paper was separated into two stages. The beginning stage followed the evaluating structure of 4As, energy efficiency, and governance provided by Wu et al. (2021). Yet we changed the accessing method from principle component analysis/data envelopment analysis-assurance region (PCA/DEA-AR) to principle component analysis/data envelopment analysis-malmquist productivity index-assurance region (PCA/DEA-MPI-AR). The modified tool not only could keep the characteristics given by AR, but also avoid ignoring temporal effect thanks to MPI. Empirical results indicated that Azerbaijan (AZE) was the most progressive country from the year 1997 to 2017. A cluster analysis was also performed.

The second stage remained the same research method while substituting the integrated indicators for those with excessive missing values. This part also changed the range from 125 countries to 32 countries.in OECD. We furthermore demonstrated the bootstrap method after analyzing ESP by PCA/DEA-MPI-AR. The final result showed that Demank (DNK), Great Britian (GBR), New Zeland (NZL), and Sweden (SWE) were the stable progressive countries in terms of ESP from the year 2000 to 2018. And the bootstrap outcome ensures the trends for the whole OECD countries.

Besides the value of empirical results for policymakers. Our research originally developed the evaluating method- MPI-AR, which will be helpful for future researchers.

謝　詞 I
國立臺北大學110學年度第2學期碩士學位論文提要 II
ABSTRACT III
目　錄 IV
圖　次 VI
表　次 VIII
第一章　緒論 1
第一節　研究背景 1
第二節　研究動機 3
第三節　研究目的 4
第四節　研究流程 5
第二章　文獻探討 9
第一節　能源安全績效評估構面 9
第二節　資料包絡分析與保證區間技術 10
第三節　主成分分析 12
第四節　麥氏生產力指數與拔靴法 12
第三章　研究方法 15
第一節　能源安全績效評估架構 15
第二節　主成分分析法 24
第三節　整合式分析模式 25
第四節　拔靴法 34
第五節　研究方法步驟圖與研究工具 35
第四章　研究結果 37
第一節　強化過去研究階段 37
第二節　建立新研究範圍階段 53
第五章　結論與建議 69
第一節　研究結論 69
第二節　研究貢獻 71
第三節　後續研究與建議 71
參考文獻 73
附錄 79
著作權聲明 109

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