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研究生:郭諺儒
研究生(外文):Yen-Ju Kuo
論文名稱:中共軍事現代化對印太軍備競賽之影響(2012-2021)
論文名稱(外文):Exploring the Impact of PLA’s Military Modernization on Indo-Pacific Arms Race (2012-2021)
指導教授:陳世民陳世民引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shih-Min Chen
口試委員:余宗基魏百谷
口試委員(外文):Tsung-Chi YuBai-Ku Wei
口試日期:2022-12-26
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2023
畢業學年度:111
語文別:中文
論文頁數:179
中文關鍵詞:軍備競賽印太地區共軍現代化中國威脅論區域安全機制
外文關鍵詞:Arms RaceIndo-Pacific RegionChinese Military ModernizationChina ThreatRegional Security Mechanism
DOI:10.6342/NTU202300041
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冷戰結束後,印太國家伴隨經濟成長,相繼進行軍事現代化,引發多位學者自1990年代起開始質疑印太是否出現軍備競賽情形。中共總書記習近平2012年上台後,共軍快速現代化加劇印太各國間的不信任,加上中共在東海、南海、台海、印中邊境的強勢作為,引發印太國家競相以增強自身軍力方式回應,多國政府及官員亦表達對印太出現軍備競賽的擔憂。鑑此,本研究旨在探討2012至2021年期間日本、台灣、印度、澳大利亞、越南、菲律賓等6國對中共威脅認知變化,進而分析上述6國是否在國防預算、武器數量及質量等方面,存在與中共進行軍備競賽的現象,並釐清印太區域安全機制及倡議在阻止印太出現軍備競賽所扮演之角色。
本研究結果顯示,共軍自2012年起出現具對外攻擊傾向的全方位異常快速增長,更加著重對外投射能力,而印太6國亦於2012至2021年間一致負面看待共軍現代化,部分國家甚至將中共視為長期威脅,台灣、澳大利亞則明顯自2016年起因與中共關係惡化而陷入敵意螺旋。對此,日本海軍每年都有明顯軍備競賽情形,2019年後則擴大成三軍都存在異常快速增長跡象。台灣自2017年起大量採購攻擊性武器,並加速推動國造機艦計畫。印度海軍及陸軍除2018年外,每年都至少有一項裝備出現快速增長情形。澳大利亞自2016年起每年至少有兩個軍種出現快速增長跡象,與2016年前判若兩國。越南除2015年外,每年國防預算都有超過4%的快速成長現象,且海軍2014至2020年間每年都有快速增長情形。菲律賓則於2017年後出現海空軍飛彈化的快速增長現象。
與此同時,新冠疫情2020年爆發後,大部分國家經濟發展都受到重大負面影響,卻未影響各國軍備發展意願,在特定領域武器裝備甚至出現更快增長現象。印太6國自2012年以來也都跳脫以往僅與特定國家建立軍事合作關係的架構,並積極強化與其他印太國家間的軍事合作關係,以增強抵禦共軍威脅的能力。印太安全機制亦因大國博弈、各國國家利益及能力差異、共識決文化等因素,而無力阻止印太軍備競賽的發生。
值得一提的是,俄烏戰爭爆發加劇印太國家對中共以武力改變現狀的擔憂,未來需有納入更多國家及武器裝備的相關研究,以利更精確研判印太軍備競賽的實際情況。
Since the end of the Cold War, Indo-Pacific countries started its military modernization process, which initiated the debate on whether or not an arms race has occurred within the Indo-Pacific region. After Xi Jin-Ping took power in 2012, the rapid growth of People’s Liberation Army military strength, along with Chinese aggressive measures toward the East China Sea, South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and the India-China border, has led to military modernization response from the Indo-Pacific countries. On this basis, this study aims to analyze the change in threat perception of China among Japan, Taiwan, India, Australia, Vietnam, and the Philippines from 2012 to 2021, in order to find out whether or not there is an ongoing arms race within the Indo-Pacific region, and investigate the role of the regional security mechanism.
This study shows that PLA’s military modernization has an all-sphere, offensive, oversea projecting characteristic, and all six nations negatively perceived PLA’s military modernization, some even considered it as a long-term threat. In order to counter the PLA threat, arms race trend was discovered from the Japanese navy every year from 2012 to 2021, expanding to the air force and army after 2019. Taiwan has started procurement of offensive weapons and indigenous weapon systems since 2017. Apart from 2018, the Indian navy and army has seen at least one weapon system with arms race trend during the same period. Australia has at least two services caught up in an arms race since 2016. Vietnam defense budget grew over 4% every year, apart from 2015. The Philippines gained missile-firing capabilities since 2017.
Moreover, although the COVID-19 pandemic has caused negative impact on most Indo-Pacific countries’ economic growth, it did not slow down the pace of military modernization among the six nations. Apart from military response, all six nations developed new security ties with other Indo-Pacific countries, in order to deal with the Chinese military threat. However, the regional security mechanism failed to fulfill its function due to great-power rivalry, lack of common interest among the Indo-Pacific nations, and the culture of consensus decision-making.
Looking beyond, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised doubts among the Indo-Pacific countries on whether or not China would change the status-quo by force. Therefore, there should be more related research with more countries and more weapon systems included, in order to discover the actual scale of the Indo-Pacific arms race.
口試委員審定書 I
謝辭 II
中文摘要 III
英文摘要 IV
目錄 V
圖表目次 VI
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機、目的與問題 1
第二節 文獻回顧 4
第三節 研究途徑、架構與方法 12
第四節 研究定義、範圍與限制 18
第二章 共軍現代化及印太國家威脅認知 20
第一節 共軍現代化之發展 20
第二節 習近平上任後對外政策及作為的日趨強硬 38
第三節 印太國家對中共之威脅認知 48
第三章 印太軍備競賽現象及過程分析 63
第一節 印太各國軍備競賽現象與發展 63
第二節 國內經濟之影響及與外國軍事合作 91
第三節 軍備競賽過程之分析 106
第四章 遏止印太軍備競賽之努力及侷限 113
第一節 印太重要安全機制及倡議 113
第二節 印太安全機制及倡議之成效評估 128
第三節 相關安全機制及倡議之侷限 142
第五章 結論 149
第一節 研究成果與發現 149
第二節 後續研究建議 153
參考文獻 155
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