臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　本論文根據2009年至2022年間的國際氣候談判，試圖從結構的角度解釋美國、歐盟、中國三方談判立場的變遷，以及三方態度的變化對於國際氣候建制的影響。
依據次級資料分析法，本文蒐集了與美國、歐盟、中國氣候談判相關的官方與非官方文件，包含闡述國內氣候目標、UNFCCC氣候大會論述與談判立場的政府文件、UNFCCC正式公佈的文件與記述、涉及氣候議題的國際場合所產生的公報、前人對美國、歐盟、中國氣候談判的研究，以及這些場合的相關報導與評論。
本研究提出「氣候談判三角」的分析框架，說明即便是在尋求國際合作的議題上，行為者仍然會出於利益考量而利用彼此進行制衡，產生近似於戰略三角理論的分析結果。研究結果顯示，美國、歐盟、中國之間在氣候議題上的互動如框架所述。三方都會去評估自身的談判立場是否偏離另外兩者，以致有可能在談判上被孤立，使得國際氣候建制的走向不如自己的偏好。當行為者認為自己被孤立，或是另外兩者密切合作的可能性較高時，行為者會更傾向於在談判立場做出讓步，或尋求與另外兩者的合作；反之，當行為者認為自己的立場能得到反映，或者另外兩者難以合作時，行為者則更傾向於捍衛既有的談判立場與成果，也欠缺與另外兩者合作的誘因。
本研究的貢獻在於為氣候研究補足「結構」的角度，提出簡化的三角模型，說明氣候談判的大趨勢實則攸關美國、歐盟、中國之間的權衡。同時，也說明戰略三角理論可以擴大運用至氣候談判，也因此也可能適用於其他談判議題上。

　　Based on the international climate negotiations from 2009 to 2022, this thesis attempted to explore a structural explanation to the evolution of United States, European Union, and China’s negotiation stances, while also elaborated how the triangular relation among them also affects the international climate regime.
This thesis used the Secondary Data Research method, analyzing the data and materials collected from official and non-official resources, including the climate policy targets from United States, European Union and China, their discourses and negotiations in UNFCCC COP, UNFCCC COP’s official documents, the communique, joint statement, announcement from important international occasions, such as G8 or Major Economies Forum, and past research, news articles, and comments.
Proposing the “climate negotiation triangle” analytical framework, the research attempted to explain that, in seeking the international cooperation in climate change, main actors would still try to gain the advantage through cooperation and non-cooperation, like the analysis of strategic triangle. Result showed that in the triangular relation among them, the three actors would reevaluate and adjust their negotiation strategies in accord with the relationship they have with the other two actors. If they felt relatively isolated by the other actors, they would show more tendency of cooperation or concession, on the other hand, if they felt they weren’t isolated in this triangle, they would show less tendency of cooperation or concession.
The contribution of this thesis is that it complemented the research of international climate negotiations with the sight of “structure”. Utilizing a simplified triangle model, the trend of climate negotiations was actually the power play among United States, European Union and China. Thus, the strategic triangle theory can be applied to climate negotiations and other fields.

口試委員會審定書 I
謝辭 II
中文摘要 III
英文摘要 IV
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究問題 3
第三節 研究目的 8
第四節 研究方法 9
第五節 章節安排 15
第二章 文獻回顧 16
第一節 美國、歐盟、中國的三角關係 16
第二節 戰略三角理論 21
第三節 國際法與國際氣候建制 24
第四節 軟實力與國際氣候建制 27
第五節 國際氣候建制的演進 29
第六節 領袖理論 33
第七節 國際氣候談判團體 35
第八節 小結 37
第三章 國際氣候談判中的三角關係 39
第一節 戰略三角理論的啟示 39
第二節 調整戰略三角理論的論述 41
第三節 氣候建制與三角結構 46
第四章 美、歐、中在氣候談判的重要性 54
第一節 作為主要溫室氣體排放國 54
第二節 作為主要經濟體 59
第三節 與氣候談判團體的關係 88
第四節 小結 93
第五章 美、歐、中的氣候三角關係 94
第一節 2009年與《哥本哈根協議》： 三角結構的起源 94
第二節 2010年～2011年： 歐盟的回歸 110
第三節 2012年～2016年： 朝向《巴黎氣候協定》 127
第四節 2017年～2020年： 美國退出《巴黎氣候協定》 162
第五節 2021年～2022年： 美國重返國際氣候談判的舞台 191
第六章 結論 221
第一節 研究發現 221
第二節 研究限制與延伸方向 230
參考文獻 234

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