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研究生:陳玥吟
研究生(外文):CHEN, YUE-YIN
論文名稱:超額配息與訊號假說
論文名稱(外文):Excess Dividend and Signaling Hypotheses
指導教授:黃志仁黃志仁引用關係
指導教授(外文):Huang, CHIH-JEN
口試委員:何瑞鎮趙慶祥
口試委員(外文):HE, RUEI-JENChao, Ching-Hsiang
口試日期:2023-06-16
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:靜宜大學
系所名稱:財務金融學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2023
畢業學年度:111
語文別:中文
論文頁數:87
中文關鍵詞:現金股利超額配息事件研究法訊號假說未來盈餘
外文關鍵詞:Cash DividendExcess DividendEvent StudySignaling HypothesesFuture Earnings
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公司在決定發放多少現金股利時,除了考慮當年度的盈餘,還可以從過去保留盈餘中提取。公司在發放股利時,會根據多方面因素綜合考慮,決定是否發放現金股利或以股票股利形式發放給股東。
本研究的目的是探討超額配息事件對公司未來盈餘之影響以及超額配息事件之股價宣告效果,並分析不同因素對股利政策的影響。過去研究表明,股利發放可以傳遞重要的市場信號,影響股價報酬率和投資者對公司的評價。基於上述的研究背景以及動機,研究目的如下:
一、檢視超額配息對公司未來盈餘的解釋能力及驗證超額配息對公司未來盈餘的影響力
二、驗證超額配息之宣告股價反應
本研究採用事件研究法及多元線性迴歸模型分析法實證方法,研究結果提供超額配息與股價之間關係的實證證據,並顯示現金股利宣告具有重要的資訊內涵,超額配息可以傳遞未來盈餘的變動,超額配息的宣告對股價有正向影響。
研究發現實證結果支持假說一之一:超額配息能夠傳遞未來盈餘的變動、假說一之三:超額配息對公司未來盈餘有負向影響及假說二:超額配息的宣告對股價有正向影響。此外,研究還發現以下關係:自由現金流量與未來盈餘呈負相關,公司自由現金流量增加時,未來盈餘可能下降。負債比率與未來盈餘呈負相關,負債比率較高的公司未來盈餘可能較低。股利穩定性與未來盈餘呈正相關,公司股利支付的穩定性與未來盈餘增長有關。
這些研究結果可以幫助投資者和分析師評估公司的未來發展性和股票價值。在投資決策中,他們可以考慮現金股利宣告、超額配息、自由現金流量、負債比率和股利穩定性等因素對公司未來盈餘的影響。此外,股價的波動也可能受到股利政策的影響,因此投資者可以藉此了解股利政策對股價的潛在影響,並在投資組合管理中做出相應的調整。

When determining the amount of cash dividends to be distributed, companies consider not only the current year's earnings but also the retained earnings from the past. Companies make decisions on whether to distribute cash dividends or issue stock dividends to shareholders based on various factors.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of excess dividend events on future earnings and the announcement effect of excess dividend events on stock prices, as well as to analyze the influence of different factors on dividend policy. Previous research has shown that dividend payouts can convey important market signals, influencing stock returns and investors' evaluation of the company. Based on the aforementioned research background and motivation, the research objectives are as follows:
Examine the explanatory power of excess dividends on future earnings and validate their impact on future earnings.
Verify the announcement effect of excess dividends on stock prices.
This study adopts event study and multiple linear regression analysis methods as empirical approaches. The research findings provide empirical evidence on the relationship between excess dividends and stock prices, demonstrating that the announcement of cash dividends carries important information content, excess dividends can transmit changes in future earnings, and the announcement of excess dividends has a positive impact on stock prices.
The empirical results support the following hypotheses: Hypothesis 1.1: Excess dividends can transmit changes in future earnings; Hypothesis 1.3: Excess dividends have a negative impact on future earnings; and Hypothesis 2: The announcement of excess dividends has a positive impact on stock prices. Furthermore, the study reveals the following relationships: negative correlation between free cash flow and future earnings, indicating that future earnings may decrease when a company's free cash flow increases; negative correlation between debt ratio and future earnings, suggesting that companies with higher debt ratios may have lower future earnings; positive correlation between dividend stability and future earnings, indicating that the stability of dividend payments is related to future earnings growth.
These research findings can assist investors and analysts in evaluating the future prospects and stock value of companies. In investment decision-making, they can consider the impact of factors such as cash dividend announcements, excess dividends, free cash flow, debt ratio, and dividend stability on future earnings. Additionally, stock price volatility may also be influenced by dividend policies, allowing investors to understand the potential impact of dividend policies on stock prices and make corresponding adjustments in portfolio management.

目錄
摘要 I
Abstract II
目錄 IV
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VII
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 股利訊號理論的相關文獻 6
第二節 股利發放政策的相關文獻 11
第三節 超額配息政策的相關文獻 14
第三章 研究方法 18
第一節 研究假說 18
第二節 樣本選取 19
第三節 研究變項之定義 21
第四節 實證模型 33
第五節 資料來源 34
第四章 實證結果與分析 35
第一節 敘述性統計 35
第二節 相關性分析 37
第三節 事件研究法 40
第四節 多元線性迴歸模型分析法 57
第五節 子樣本 69
第五章 結論 73
參考文獻 76


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