跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(44.222.82.133) 您好!臺灣時間:2024/09/15 21:33
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

: 
twitterline
研究生:温淳如
研究生(外文):Wen, Chun-Ju
論文名稱:人工神經網路(ANN)在財務績效預測中的應用-以傳統產業為例
論文名稱(外文):Application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in Financial Performance Prediction
指導教授:李秋燕李秋燕引用關係
指導教授(外文):Lee, Chiou-Yann
口試委員:陳育成呂珮珊
口試委員(外文):Chen, Yu-ChengLu, Pei-Shan
口試日期:2024-07-12
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:朝陽科技大學
系所名稱:會計系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2024
畢業學年度:112
語文別:中文
論文頁數:46
中文關鍵詞:人工神經網路大數據多門檻模型財務績效
外文關鍵詞:Artificial Neural NetworkBig dataMulti-threshold modelFinancial performance
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:22
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:6
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
台灣傳統產業在不斷的產業轉型的過程中一直扮演著重要的角色,而隨著全球經濟的發展,該行業需要找到關鍵要素以保持其在國際舞台上的競爭力,因此公司的管理水平的提升成為關鍵。以往許多研究關注董事會特徵與公司績效之間的關係,因此本研究主要探討公司董事會專業背景是否會影響公司績效。
本研究以2000年至2021的331家傳統產業公司之董事會成員的相關資料為研究樣本,以ROA進行多門檻模型法分析,並找出其中的規律,在此基礎上建立一個用於預測財務績效的人工神經網路確定董事會成員之教育背景的不同會對台灣傳統產業企業財務績效產生何種影響。本研究發現,擁有更多會計專業知識的董事會成員有助於更穩定的增加公司利潤。擁有更多財金專業知識的成員對公司績效有極端影響,並不穩定。而法律專業背景的董事會成員對公司績效在某些情況下有負向影響。

Traditional industries in Taiwan have played an important role in the ongoing process of industrial transformation. As the global economy develops, this sector needs to identify key factors to maintain its competitiveness on the international stage. Consequently, improving the level of company management has become crucial. Many past studies have focused on the relationship between board characteristics and company performance; therefore, this study primarily investigates whether the professional background of the board of directors affects company performance.
This study uses data from 331 traditional industry companies from 2000 to 2021 as the research sample, analyzing the relationship between board members' backgrounds and company performance through a multiple threshold model using ROA (Return on Assets). The study aims to establish an artificial neural network to predict financial performance based on the different educational backgrounds of board members in Taiwan's traditional industries. The findings indicate that board members with more accounting expertise contribute to a more stable increase in company profits. Members with more finance expertise have an extreme and unstable impact on company performance, while board members with legal expertise negatively affect company performance in certain situations.

目錄
摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VII
第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景及動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第貳章 文獻探討與假說發展 5
第一節 董事會結構與營業績效 5
第二節 人工神經網路 9
第三節 假說發展 14
第參章 研究方法與設計 16
第一節 樣本選取與資料來源 16
第二節 研究模型與變數定義 17
第三節 實證模型 22
第肆章 研究結果與分析 24
第一節 敘述性統計與相關性分析 24
第二節 多門檻模型測試 30
第三節 實證結果 31
第伍章 結論及建議 35
第一節 研究結論 35
第二節 研究意涵及建議 37
參考文獻 39
中文文獻 39
英文文獻 40

表目錄
表3-1 產業別統計表 17
表4-1 敘述性統計 25
表4-2 相關性分析 27
表4-3資產報酬率 (ROA) 閾值測試 31
表4-4 影響不同群體ROA的因素 33

圖目錄
圖3-1 人工神經網路(ANN)的運行機制 18
圖4-1 ROA與董事會成員專業背景之間關係的散佈圖 28
圖4-2預測ROA的ANN 29
圖4-3 ANN模型的誤差 30


中文文獻
沈中華和張元(2008)。企業的社會責任為可以改善財務績效嗎?-以英國 FTSE 社會責任指數為例。經濟論文,36(3),339 - 385。
取自:https://doi.org/10.29628/AEP.200809.0004
吳怡銘(2000,9月)。逆轉傳統產業的絕境--政府振興傳統產業配套措施。能力雜誌,535,105-107。
取自:http://catalog.digitalarchives.tw/item/00/62/1c/5b.html
馬偉翔、黃裕烈和張焯然(2019)。用人工神經網路預測股價走勢。國立清華大學財務金融碩士在職專班碩士論文。
取自:https://hdl.handle.net/11296/m8spfs
陳偉星、余豐榮和金憲(2011)。台灣傳統產業研發之方式、瓶頸及資源需求與產業類型關係之研究。科學與工程技術期刊,7(2),63-75。
取自:https://doi.org/10.7117/JSET.201106.0063
粘季為、張元和許敏政(2017)。公司董事會多樣性是否有助於降低公司風險? 兩岸金融季刊,5(3),69-111。
取自:https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=P20130926004-201709-201710050015-201710050015-69-111

英文文獻
Abiodun, O. I., Jantan, A., Omolara, A. E., Dada, K. V., Mohamed, N. A. & Arshad, H. (2018). State-of-the-art in artificial neural network applications: A survey. Heliyon, 4(11).
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00938
Aebi, V., Sabato, G. & Schmid, M. (2012). Risk management, corporate governance, and bank performance in the financial crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36(12), 3213-3226.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.10.020
Agrawal, A. & Knoeber, C. (1996). Firm performance and mechanisms to control agency problems between managers and shareholders. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 31, 377–397.
取自:https://ssrn.com/abstract=7524
Ansari, A., Ahmad, I. S., Bakar, A. A. & Yaakub, M. R. (2020). A Hybrid Metaheuristic Method in Training Artificial Neural Network for Bankruptcy Prediction. IEEE Access, 8, 176640-176650.
DOI:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3026529
Bhagat, S. & Bolton, B. (2013). Director Ownership, Governance, and Performance. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 48(1), 105-135.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109013000045
Brickley, J.A., Coles, J.L. & Jarrell, G. (1997). Leadership Structure: Separating the CEO and Chairman of the Board. Journal of Corporate Finance, 3, 189-220.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0929-1199(96)00013-2
Brzoska, J., Fischer, D. & Alpermann, B. (2020). Market Forecasting in China: An Artificial Neural Network Approach to Optimize the Accuracy of Sales Forecasts in the Chinese Automotive Market. Würzburg, Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg.
取自:https://doi.org/10.25972/OPUS-20315
Carcello, J. V., Hermanson, D. R., Neal, T. L. & Riley, R. A. (2002). Board characteristics and audit fees. Contemporary Accounting Research, 19(3), 365–384.
取自: https://doi.org/10.1506/CHWK-GMQ0-MLKE-K03V
Carpenter, M.A. (2002). The implications of strategy and social context for the relationship between top management team heterogeneity and firm performance. Strategic Management Journal, 23(3), 275-284.
取自:https://www.jstor.org/stable/3094366
Custódio, C. & Metzger, D. (2013). How Do CEOs Matter? The Effect of Industry Expertise on Acquisition Returns. The Review of Financial Studies, 26(8), 2008–2047.
取自:https://ssrn.com/abstract=1647073
Drobetz, W., Von Meyerinck, F., Oesch, D. & Schmid, M. (2018). Industry expert directors. Journal of Banking & Finance, 92, 195-215.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.04.019
Fernandes, C., Farinha, J., Martins, F. V. & Mateus, C. (2018). Bank governance and performance: A survey of the literature. Journal of Banking Regulation, 19, 236–256.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1057/s41261-017-0045-0
Gonzàlez, A., Teräsvirta, T. & Dijk D. V. (2005). Panel smooth transition regression models. Working Papers Series in Economics and Finance. Stockholm School of Economics.
取自:https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:hastef:0604
Güner, A. B., Malmendier, U. & Tate, G. (2008). Financial expertise of directors. Journal of Financial Economics, 88(2), 323-354.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.05.009
Hakim, M. S. & Liu, C. L. (2021). Generalist or Specialist? The Skill of CEO and Director That Really Matter to Firm Performance. Modern Economy, 12(12), 1768-1781.
DOI:10.4236/me.2021.1212090
Haleblian, J. & Finkelstein, S. (1993). Top management team size, CEO dominance, and firm performance. The Academy of Management Journal, 36(4), 844–863.
取自:https://doi.org/10.2307/256761
Hambrick, D.C. & Mason, P. A. (1984). Upper echelons: The organization as a reflection of its top managers. Academy of management review, 9(2), 193-206.
取自:https://doi.org/10.2307/258434
Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345-368.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00025-1
Hermalin, B. E. & Weisbach, M. S. (1991). The effects of board composition and direct incentives on firm performance. Financial Management, 20, 101–112.
取自:https://doi.org/10.2307/3665716
Hillman, A. J., Cannella, Jr. A. A. & Harris I. C., (2002). Women and Racial Minorities in the Boardroom: How Do Directors Differ? Journal of Management, 28(6), 747-763.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0149-2063(02)00192-7
Huang, S. & Hilary, G. (2018). Zombie board: Board tenure and firm performance. Journal of Accounting Research, 56(4), 1285-1329.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12209
Lipton, M. & Lorsch, J. W. (1992). A Modest Proposal for Improved Corporate Governance. The Business Lawyer, 48(1), 59–77.
取自:https://www.jstor.org/stable/40687360
Jalbert, T., Rao, R. & Jalbert, M. (2002). Does School Matter? An Empirical Analysis Of CEO Education, Compensation, And Firm Performance. International Business & Economics Research Journal, 1(1), 83-98.
DOI:10.19030/iber.v1i1.3882
Jensen, M. & Zajac, E. J. (2004). Corporate elites and corporate strategy: How demographic preferences and structural position shape the scope of the firm. Strategic Management Journal, 25(6), 507-524.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.393
Jensen, M. C. & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior. agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X
Jensen, M. C. (1993). The modern industrial revolution, exit, and the failure of internal control systems. the Journal of Finance, 48(3), 831-880.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04022.x
Kallamu, B. S. (2015). Impact of qualification of expert directors on audit committee and firm performance. Net Journal of Business Management, 3(3), 43-64.
取自:https://www.netjournals.org/z_NJBM_15_019.html
Keck, S. (1997). Top Management Team Structure: Differential Effects by Environmental Context. Organization Science, 8(2), 143 – 156.
取自:https://www.jstor.org/stable/2635307
Kim, D. & Starks, L. T. (2016). Gender diversity on corporate boards: Do women contribute unique skills? American Economic Review, 106(5), 267-71.
DOI:10.1257/aer.p20161032
Klein, A. (1998). Firm performance and board committee structure. The Journal of Law and Economics, 41(1), 275-304.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1086/467391
Kor, Y. Y. & Sundaramurthy, C. (2009). Experience-based human capital and social capital of outside directors. Journal of management, 35(4), 981-1006.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206308321551
Michel, J. & Hambrick, D. (1992). Diversification posture and top management team characteristics. The Academy of Management Journal, 35(1), 9 – 37.
取自:https://doi.org/10.2307/256471
Minton, B. A., Taillard, J. P. and Williamson, R. (2014). Financial expertise of the board, risk taking, and performance: Evidence from bank holding companies. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 49(2), 351-380.
取自:https://ssrn.com/abstract=1455997
Moldovan, D. & Rusu, M., (2015). CONNECTING CORPORATE GOVERNANCE TO COMPANIES’ PERFORMANCE BY ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. Financial Studies, 2A(68A), 107-116.
取自:http://fs.icfm.ro/vol19i2ap107-116.pdf
Nguyen, T. T. & Huang, Q. W. (2020). Impact of gender and education on corporate social responsibility: evidence from Taiwan. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 18(1), 334-344.
DOI:10.21511/ppm.18(1).2020.29
Pereira, V. & Filipe, J. (2018). Quality of board members’ training and bank fnancial performance: Evidence from Portugal. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 6(3), 47–79.
DOI:10.35808/ijeba/164
Prasetiyo, B., Muslim, M. A., Subhan & Baroroh, N. (2020). Artificial neural network model for banckrupty prediction. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1567(3), 1-4.
DOI:10.1088/1742-6596/1567/3/032022
Pucheta-Martínez, M.C. & Gallego-Álvarez, I. (2020). Do board characteristics drive firm performance? An international perspective. Review of Managerial Science, 14(6), 1251-1297.
DOI:10.1007/s11846-019-00330-x
Rajan, R. G. and Zingales, L. (1998). Financial Dependence and Growth. The American Economic Review, 88(3), 559-586.
取自:https://ssrn.com/abstract=7872
Rumelhart, D., Hinton, G. & Williams, R. (1986). Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature, 323, 533–536.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1038/323533a0
Saha, S., Das, S., Acharya, A., Kumar, A., Mukherjee, S., Pan, I. & Gupta, A. (2012, December). Identification of Nonlinear Systems From the Knowledge Around Different Operating Conditions: A Feed-Forward Multi-Layer ANN Based Approach, Paper presented at the meeting of 2012 2nd IEEE International Conference on Parallel, Distributed and Grid Computing, Solan, India.
DOI:10.1109/PDGC.2012.6449856
Sandhaus, G. (1998). Neural Networks for Cost Estimating in Project Management. Dissertation. Swansea, Wales, University of Wales Swansea.
DOI:10.23889/SUthesis.61215
Selvamuthu, D., Kumar, V. & Mishra, A. (2019). Indian stock market prediction using artificial neural networks on tick data. Financial Innovation, 5(1), 1-12.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0131-7
Sidki, M., Boerger, L. & Boll, D. (2023). The effect of board members’ education and experience on the financial performance of German state-owned enterprises. Journal of Management and Governance, Crossref.
DOI:10.1007/s10997-022-09663-4
Song, X., Jing, Y. & Qin, X. (2023). BP neural network-based early warning model for financial risk of internet financial companies. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 1-17.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2210362
Sun, L. (2021). Does the location of directors' additional positions matter? A new dimension of board structure. Global Finance Journal, 49, 100648.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100648
Thomas, A. S., Litschert, R. J. & Ramaswamy, K. (1991). The performance impact of strategy‐manager coalignment: An empirical examination. Strategic Management Journal, 12 (7), 509-522.
取自:https://www.jstor.org/stable/2486523
Van der Walt, N. & Ingley, C. (2003) Board Dynamics and the Influence of Professional Background, Gender and Ethnic Diversity of Directors. Corporate Governance: An International Review, 11(3), 218-234.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8683.00320
Volonté, C. & Gantenbein, P. (2016). Directors’ human capital, frm strategy, and frm performance. Journal of Management & Governance, 20(1), 115–145.
DOI:10.1007/s10997-014-9304-y
Weisbach, M. S. (1988). Outside directors and CEO turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 20, 431-460.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(88)90053-0
Zahra, S. A. & Pearce, J. A. (1989). Boards of Directors and Corporate Financial Performance: A Review and Integrative Model. Journal of Management, 15(2), 291-334.
取自:https://doi.org/10.1177/014920638901500208
Zhuang, Y., Chang, X. & Lee, Y. (2018). Board Composition and Corporate Social Responsibility Performance: Evidence from Chinese Public Firms. Sustainability, 10, 2752.
取自:https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082752

QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
無相關期刊