臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

人類的碳排放行為會影響氣候變遷及變遷後所造成的天然災害，在面對極端氣候的挑戰，淨零碳排已成為全球議題。台灣的地形陡峭及豐沛的降雨量，具有豐富的小水力發電潛能，因此台灣應致力於發展小水力發電之開發。
本研究區域為旗山溪集水區，應用地理資訊系統（Geographic Information System, GIS）與數值高程模型（Digital Elevation Model, DEM）進行初步的水頭落差評估，利用面積比率法探討適合設置小水力發電站的合適位置，計算並評估其發電潛能。以旗山溪集水區近10年雨量與流量資料，評估該集水區近年水文、氣象與流量條件，並以HEC-HMS模式進行流量推估模型建置，經模型參數檢定驗證後，則以IPCC AR6 ssp245之未來預測的降雨數據為模式輸入，對旗山溪集水區未來流量進行模擬，並評估設置小水力發電之潛能。
研究結果顯示歷年和未來小水力發電機組設計流量介於3~4cms時，擁有最佳的發電潛能，豐水年和枯水年亦是如此，利用歷年流量進行評估，在原假設條件下，本研究區域適用Fraenkel 等(2012)提出之橫流式水輪機(Cross-Flow turbine) ，在本研究考量氣候變遷的情況下，流量變化不大，故旗山溪流域裝設此類型小水力發電機組仍然適用。
本研究係利用水頭、流量以及特定廠牌之機組進行評估，作為選機型之依據，實際上機組選擇需要考量之因素甚多。

Human carbon emissions impact climate change and the natural disasters that follow. In the face of the challenges posed by extreme weather, achieving net-zero carbon emissions has become a global issue. Taiwan's steep terrain and abundant rainfall provide significant potential for small hydropower generation. Therefore, Taiwan should strive to develop small hydropower projects.
This study focuses on the Qishan River watershed, using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for preliminary head drop assessments. The area ratio method is employed to explore suitable locations for small hydropower stations and to calculate and evaluate their generation potential. By analyzing the rainfall and flow data of the Qishan River watershed over the past decade, we assess the hydrological, meteorological, and flow conditions of the watershed in recent years. Using the HEC-HMS model, a flow estimation model is built, and after validating the model parameters, the future rainfall data predicted by IPCC AR6 SSP245 is input into the model to simulate future flow in the Qishan River watershed and evaluate the potential for small hydropower installation.
The study results show that, for both historical and future scenarios, when the design flow rate of small hydropower units ranges between 3 to 4 cms, the generation potential is optimal, regardless of whether it is a wet or dry year. Evaluations based on historical flow rates indicate that under the initial assumptions, the study area is suitable for Cross-Flow turbines proposed by Fraenkel et al. (2012). Considering the climate change scenario in this study, the flow variation is minimal, so installing this type of small hydropower unit in the Qishan River basin remains appropriate.
This study evaluates head, flow, and specific equipment brands as the basis for equipment selection. In practice, numerous factors need to be considered when choosing the equipment.

目錄v
表目錄vii
圖目錄ix
第一章 前言1
1.1研究動機1
1.2研究目的3
1.3研究流程4
第二章 文獻回顧5
2.1氣候變遷5
2.1.1淨零排放5
2.1.2碳中和產業鏈6
2.1.3排碳量比較7
2.2小水力發電9
2.2.1小水力發電在國際上近年的發展9
2.2.2水力發電的分界與定義13
2.2.3水力發電常用的機械形式14
2.2.4促使農村再生案例19
2.3 HEC-HMS逕流模式23
第參章 研究區域與研究方法24
3.1研究區域24
3.1.1地理位置與高程24
3.1.2坡度與坡向27
3.1.3地質與地貌分析說明30
3.1.4土地利用32
3.2研究方法33
3.2.1 HEC-HMS34
3.2.2降水損失方法39
3.2.3直接逕流轉換方法49
3.2.4 HEC-HMS參數設置50
3.2.5小水力發電75
3.2.6氣候變遷情境雨量78
第四章 研究成果說明81
4.1歷年雨量及流量分析81
4.2率定驗證86
4.3流量延時曲線(Flow duration curve)92
4.4發電潛能94
4.5未來降雨數據分析100
4.6發電量評估105
第五章 結論與建議112
5.1結論112
5.2建議115
參考文獻116

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