臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

經濟成長真的有牽一髮而動全身的影響力嗎？當人們連最基本的生理需求都無法滿足時，自然而然會謀生消極的念頭，甚至是狗急跳牆，人急懸樑的社會犯罪案件，進而做出自我傷害的行為。值得注意的是，根據自殺防治網通訊2019年之統計資料顯示，1997年開始至2009年，台灣蓄意自我傷害之自殺行為已連續12年進入台灣十大死因之列。基於此，本研究主要的研究目的：探討在經濟成長率之下失業率及犯罪率對自殺率之門檻效應並確認是否存在非線性關係。
本研究使用縱橫平滑轉換迴歸模型實證調查，在經濟成長率之下失業率及犯罪率對自殺率之非線性關係，研究期間為2000年至2019年，研究範圍則涵蓋台灣22個縣市且劃分為北、中、南三個地區。根據統計檢驗之結果顯示：(1)失業率及犯罪率對自殺率存在門檻效應，彼此之間也具有非線性關係；(2)根據門檻值的波動，自殺率的攀升或下降對失業率及犯罪率的高低產生不對稱影響。
由以上結果得知，當經濟成長率之變動率大於門檻值時，失業率及犯罪率對自殺率產生積極影響，相反的，當經濟成長率之變動率小於門檻值時，失業率及犯罪率對自殺率的影響則為負向。基於研究發現，提供新的知識，也對後續研究者提供建議：可以深入探討男性與女性在失業及犯罪情形中，對於選擇企圖自殺的影響。另外，有大量研究使用離婚率、最低工資率及社會福利制度等當作解釋變數來探討對自殺率的影響，故也建議後續可延伸相關變數來探究其對自殺率之結果。

Will economic growth change affect everything? When people can't even meet the most basic physical needs, they will usually have negative thoughts about making a living, and even social crime cases where people are in even a worm will turn, then engage in self-harming behaviors. It is worth noting that, according to the 2018 statistics of the Suicide Prevention Center, from 1997 to 2009, Taiwan's intentional self-harm suicides have been among the top ten causes of death in Taiwan for 12 consecutive years. Based on this, the research purpose of this study is to explore the threshold effect of the unemployment rate and crime rate on the suicide rate under the economic growth rate and confirm whether there is a nonlinear relationship.
This study uses a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) Model to investigate the nonlinear relationship between the unemployment rate, crime rate, and suicide rate under the economic growth rate. The research period of this study was annual data from 2000 to 2019, and the scope of territorial jurisdiction, the data on economic growth, unemployment, crime, and suicide rates for this study were divided into northern, central, and southern areas according to 22 county and city areas of Taiwan. According to the results of statistical tests: (1) the unemployment rate and the crime rate have a threshold effect on the suicide rate, and there exists a nonlinear relationship; (2) according to the fluctuation of the threshold value, the rise of fall of the suicide rate has an asymmetric effect on the unemployment rate and the crime rate.
From the above results, we know that when the rate of change of the economic growth rate exceeds the threshold value, the influence of the change of the unemployment rate and crime rate on the suicide rate was aggressive. On the contrary, when the rate of change of the economic growth rate was under threshold value, the influence of the change of the unemployment rate and the crime rate on the suicide rate was negative. Based on the research findings, for the subsequent research direction, because this study only singly focused on the investigation of the dynamic effect of the influence of the unemployment rate and crime rate on the suicide rate under the economic growth rate of Taiwan, gender was not taken out independently for analysis. Therefore, in the future, in-depth research can be focused on male and female subjects, in situations of unemployment and crime, to select suicide. In addition, many studies have focused on the use of the divorce rate, minimum wage rate, and social welfare system as independent variables to investigate their influences on the suicide rate. Therefore, in future research, related variables or the deaths of despair hypothesis can be extended to investigate the corresponding suicide rate result.

目錄
口試委員會審定書 i
致謝 ii
中文摘要 iv
英文摘要 v
目錄 vii
圖目錄 ix
表目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 5
1.3研究流程 8
1.4研究限制 10
第二章 文獻探討 11
2.1經濟成長、失業率與自殺率之間的關係 11
2.2經濟成長、犯罪率與自殺率之間的關係 18
2.3縱橫平滑轉換迴歸模型 23
第三章 研究方法 27
3.1研究變數 27
3.1.1轉換變數 28
3.1.2解釋變數 29
3.1.2.1失業率 29
3.1.2.2犯罪率 29
3.1.3被解釋變數 29
3.2資料庫 30
3.2.1行政院主計總處(Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C.) 30
3.2.2中華民國統計資訊網(National Statistics) 31
3.2.3金門縣政府主計處(Accounting and Statistics Department, Kinmen County Government) 32
3.2.4連江縣志(Chronicle of Lienchiang County)與連江縣政府(Lienchiang County Government) 33
3.2.5中華民國內政部警政署全球資訊網(National Police Agency, Ministry of the Interior) 33
3.2.6衛生福利部統計處(Ministry of Health and Welfare) 34
3.3台灣北、中、南地區之劃分 34
3.4研究模型 35
3.4.1線性模型 35
3.4.2縱橫平滑轉換迴歸模型 36
3.4.3線性與無剩餘非線性檢定 37
第四章 實證分析及結果 39
4.1敘述性統計 39
4.2共線性測試及變異數膨脹係數分析 40
4.3 Panel單位根檢定 42
4.4實證分析 43
4.4.1線性測試 43
4.4.2門檻值變數的最佳數量測試 44
4.5實證結果 45
4.5.1縱橫平滑轉換迴歸模型 46
4.5.2線性模型 48
第五章 結論及建議 50
5.1結論 50
5.2建議及貢獻 51
參考文獻 53
一、英文文獻 53
二、中文文獻 61

圖目錄
圖1. 1 台灣平均經濟成長率、失業率、犯罪率與自殺率統計圖 7
圖1. 2 研究流程圖 9


表目錄
表3. 1 研究變數之分類、名稱、代碼及資料來源 27
表3. 2 台灣北、中及南區劃分 35
表4- 1 研究變數之敘述性統計 40
表4- 2 台灣經濟成長率與其他解釋變數之相關係數分析表 41
表4- 3 台灣經濟成長率與其他解釋變數之變異數膨脹係數表 42
表4- 4 Panel單位根檢定之測試結果 43
表4- 5 線性測試之結果 44
表4- 6 無剩餘非線性檢定之結果 45
表4- 7 PSTR模型與線性模型之實證結果 46

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