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研究生:吳琪安
研究生(外文):WU, CHI-AN
論文名稱:臺灣地方選舉的政治不確定性對企業投資的影響
論文名稱(外文):The Effect of Political Uncertainty on Corporate Investment in Taiwan's Local Elections
指導教授:葉家維葉家維引用關係
指導教授(外文):YEH, CHIA-WEI
口試委員:葉家維許嫣茹蔡宜均
口試委員(外文):YEH, CHIA-WEIHSU, YEN-JUTSAI, YI-CHUN
口試日期:2024-05-24
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立暨南國際大學
系所名稱:財務金融學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2024
畢業學年度:112
語文別:中文
論文頁數:46
中文關鍵詞:企業投資政治不確定性企業現金持有
外文關鍵詞:Corporate InvestmentPolitical UncertaintyCorporate Cash Holdings
DOI:10.6837/ncnu202400128
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:27
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  • 下載下載:7
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本研究探討政治不確定性對企業投資行為的影響,採用臺灣地方首長選舉和政黨輪替作為政治不確定性的指標。研究結果發現,地方首長選舉對企業投資具有明顯的負面影響,在高政治不確定性的環境下,企業傾向暫緩投資計劃。本文還發現,在政治不確定性高的時期,現金持有較多的公司會減少投資,顯示公司會持有現金以預防潛在衝擊。最後,本文發現當地方與中央政黨一致時,有利於企業投資意願,穩健性測試也進一步確認主要結果的可靠性。
This study examines the impact of political uncertainty on corporate investment behavior, adopting local elections and party rotations in Taiwan as indicators of political uncertainty. The results show that local elections have a significant negative effect on corporate investment. In an environment of high political uncertainty, companies tend to postpone investment plans. The study also finds that during high political uncertainty situations, companies with higher cash holdings reduce investment. It means that companies might save cash to hedge against potential shocks. Finally, the study finds that while local and central governments are from the same party, it is conducive to corporate investment. The robustness tests also confirm the reliability of the main findings.
目次

致謝辭 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目次 iv
表目次 v
第一章、緒論 1
第二章、文獻回顧與研究假說 3
第一節、 政治不確定性與投資 3
第二節、 政治不確定性期間的企業現金持有與投資 6
第三章、研究方法 7
第一節、資料來源 7
第二節、研究方法 7
一、 企業投資變數的衡量方法 7
二、 政治不確定性之解釋變數定義 8
三、 其他解釋變數定義 9
四、 實證模型 9
第四章、實證結果 11
第一節、敘述性統計 11
第二節、單變量分析 12
第三節、迴歸分析結果 14
一、 地方選舉的政治不確定性對企業投資的影響 14
二、 地方選舉時發生政黨輪替對企業投資的影響 15
三、 政治不確定性與現金持有對企業投資的影響 17
第四節、延伸分析 19
第五節、穩健性測試 21
一、 替代被解釋變數的穩健性測試 21
二、 縣市固定效果的穩健性測試 22
第五章、結論 23
參考文獻 25
一、 中文文獻 25
二、 英文文獻 25
附錄 45

表目次

表一:地方公職人員選舉 29
表二:敘述統計 30
表三:單變量分析 32
表四:政治不確定性對企業投資影響的迴歸結果 34
表五:政治不確定性與現金持有對企業投資影響的迴歸結果 37
表六:一致政黨時對企業投資影響的迴歸結果 40
表七:政治不確定性對企業投資變動的迴歸結果 42
附表一:變數定義 45



一、中文文獻
1.丁仁方 (2019)。探索台灣地方政治運作的基本特性。臺灣民主季刊,16(1),141-154。
2.鍾宇軒,王嘉汝 (2020)。政治不確定性與企業投資: 來自臺灣總統大選的證據。當代會計,21(2),133-184。
二、英文文獻
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13.Drobetz, W., El Ghoul, S., Guedhami, O., & Janzen, M. (2018). Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital. Journal of Financial Stability, 39, 28-45.
14.Duong, H. N., Nguyen, J. H., Nguyen, M., & Rhee, S. G. (2020). Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings. Journal of Corporate Finance, 62, 101607.
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20.Jens, C., & Page, T. B. (2022). Corporate cash and political uncertainty. Working paper. Available at SSRN 3094415.
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22.Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. McMillan, London.
23.Kim, H., & Kung, H. (2017). The asset redeployability channel: How uncertainty affects corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 30(1), 245-280.
24.Kramer, G. H. (1971). Short-term fluctuations in US voting behavior, 1896–1964. American political science review, 65(1), 131-143.
25.Wang, J., Zhou, M., Lei, L., & Fan, W. (2016). Corporate social responsibility reporting, pyramidal structure and political interference: Evidence from China. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 32(2), 703-718.
26.Lucas Jr, R. E., & Prescott, E. C. (1971). Investment under uncertainty. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 659-681.
27.Nguyen, N. H., & Phan, H. V. (2017). Policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(2), 613-644.
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