臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

背景與目的：台灣地區之自殺死亡率自1994年開始有明顯上升之趨勢，而生態和社會因子的改變是否可能導致自殺死亡率之增加及其季節型態之變化，值的加以探討。本研究之研究目的為（1）瞭解台灣地區在1994年之後其自殺死亡率之季節變化型態是否改變，並對年齡、性別及自殺方式加以控制之後看其變化如何；（2）評估重要節日對自殺死亡之影響；（3）探討氣溫、雨量和自殺死亡率之相關性。
方法：利用台灣地區1985-1998年之死亡資料及中央氣象局所測得之各地每月平均溫度和雨量資料，使用General Box-Jenkins model and Generalized Autoregressive Model (GAM) 進行資料之分析。
結果：台灣地區之自殺死亡率自1994年開始有明顯上升之趨勢，尤其在老年男性使用暴力性之自殺方式更有明顯增加之情形。在自殺之季節變化方面，以4月及7月之自殺死亡最高，並在10月有一小的高峰出現；在1994到1998年期間，男性每年有一個週期 ( one cycle)，但在65歲以上之女性發現有每年三個週期 (three cycle) 之存在。不論暴力性或非暴力性之自殺方式皆有季節變異的特性。氣溫、雨量和自殺死亡率有正相關性。在重要節日方面只有元旦及農曆除夕對自殺死亡具有保護作用。
結論：從本研究之結果認為，生態因子及社會關係的改變可能導致自殺死亡季節型態之變化及自殺死亡之增加。

Background and Objectives: The mortality of suicide has been dramastically increasing from 1994 onwards in Taiwan. The change of ecological factors and social activity may not only lead to increased mortality but alter seasonal pattern. The aims of this study are (1) to assess whether seasonal pattern is altered after 1994 and also modified by age, sex and suicide method; (2) to evaluate the impact of holiday on suicide; and (3) to elucidate the relationship of suicide to climate such as temperature and precipitation.
Methods: The mortality data from 1985 to 1998 was collected. The corresponding monthly information on temperature and precipitation was accrued from Central Weather Bureau. Important holidays in the ways of lunar and solar systems were also defined General Box-Jenkins model and Generalized Autoregressive Model (GAM) are proposed to achieve the above purposes.
Results: The mortality of suicide has been increasing since 1994, particularly in old males with violent method. Seasonal pattern has been demonstrated to cluster between April and July. In addition, a small spike is found in October. Before 1993, one cycle per year is observed for both sex. One cycle per year is found for male but there are three cycles per year for females with aged 65 years or above between 1994 and 1998. Both suicide methods, violent and non-violent, show the property of seasonal pattern. Positive significant association between suicide and climate are found. Only two holidays, New Year and Chinese New Year’ Eve, show a significant protective effect on suicide.
Conclusion: The result of this study suggests that the change of ecological factors and social correlates may alter seasonal pattern and increase the burden of suicide.

中文摘要
英文摘要
第一章 文獻探討
第一節 自殺的定義………………………………………………….1
第二節 自殺的流行病學特徵……………………………………….1
第三節 自殺在季節性方面之研究………………………………….4
第四節 氣候因素之研究…………………………………………..10
第五節 重要節日方面之研究……………………………………..11
第六節 研究假說及研究目的……………………………………..13
第二章 材料與方法
第一節 樣本選取…………………………………………………..17
第二節 資料處理與統計分析方法………………………………..18
第三節 時間序列分析……………………………………………..20
第三章 研究結果
第一節 描述性特徵………………………………………………..31
第二節 自殺率之季節變化及長期趨勢分析……………………..32
第三節 氣溫及雨量和自殺率之相關……………………………..36
第四節 自殺和重要節日之相關…………………………………..37
第四章 討論………………………………………………………….38
參考文獻……………………………………………………………….45

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