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研究生:賴金和
研究生(外文):Chin-Ho LAI
論文名稱:民航開放政策對國內消費者福利與營運者獲利環境影響之研究
論文名稱(外文):Effects of Airlines Deregulation on Domestic Consumer Welfare and Operator Profitability Environment
指導教授:張學孔張學孔引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shyue Koong CHANG
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:土木工程學研究所
學門:工程學門
學類:土木工程學類
論文出版年:2003
畢業學年度:91
語文別:中文
論文頁數:143
中文關鍵詞:航空公司消費者福利對等變量分析性模式獲利指標
外文關鍵詞:airlinesconsumer welfareequivalent variationanalytic modelprofitability indicator
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摘 要
受到世界各國民航開放政策之影響,政府於1987年實施「放寬進入管制政策」,接受民航運輸業者設立及加入市場之申請。民航放寬管制政策實施以來,國內航空業者增加,機隊迅速擴充,航空運量亦大幅成長。多年來所實施之民航開放政策,對經濟發展及社會福利之影響,值得進行全面檢討。
本研究主要在探討國內民航放寬管制後,民航市場環境變化對消費者福利之影響。研究中除構建民航放寬管制後服務品質改變之航空市場需求模式外,並依此市場需求模式透過洛依定理由間接效用函數反推受補償需求函數求解對等變量,利用所推導之方程式推估消費者福利的改變,同時比較實施放寬管制與不實施放寬管制之消費者福利差異。經由所建立之模式分析結果顯示,實施民航放寬管制政策後,消費者福利高達新台幣420億元(以1999年為計算基礎)。如不實施民航放寬管制政策,讓市場自由成長,消費者福利各航線總共損失約新台幣250至448億元(以1999年為計算基礎),其中尚未包括台北-嘉義等六條航線未開航之損失。亦即,實施民航放寬管制,消費者至少有新台幣250億元淨福利之改善。
民航放寬管制初期,大部分航空業者均有盈餘。惟自政策實施10年後,各航空公司逐漸出現虧損狀態,1998年虧損總額高達新台幣78.7億元,1999年虧損總額略為下降約新台幣9.6億元。在消費者有淨福利而營運者逐步虧損之情況下,提供業者永續經營之環境,即突顯其重要性。唯有在營運者有盈餘條件下,消費者福利之效益才能維持。因此,業者如何採取最佳營運策略以創造盈餘是一項非常重要之課題。
民航管制政策放寬後,國內航線費率已傾向於自由化。本研究另以分析性模式來探討在費率自由化下,民航業者營運策略最佳化問題。利用最大化利潤目標函數,費率及服務班次最佳化決策變數,分析航空業者獲利指標。所建立之模式,並以台北—高雄航線為例進行適用性之驗證。分析結果認為,航空業者獲利指標建立在市場需求條件與業者供給特性之基礎上,航空業者雖然不能控制市場潛在需求,但可掌握營運成本等有利因素,調整公司營運結構,達成獲利目標。最後,本研究在同時考量消費者福利及業者獲利情況下,提出具體之營運策略。
Abstract
Chin-Ho LAI, Doctor of Philosophy, 2003
Supervisor: Shyue Koong CHANG, Professor
The demand of civil aviation transportation was stepping up gradually along with the growth of economy and the increase of national income. The Civil Aeronautics Administration(CAA)removed the entry restriction so that the new airlines can operate the domestic and international market since 1987. The domestic and international airline companies increase, the size of fleet quickly expands, and the seat capacity grows up significantly as well. It is necessary to evaluate the impact of deregulation on social economy and welfare.
This research aims to analyze the effect of deregulation on consumer welfare, under the domestic environment. This study first develops a demand model of aviation market in which service quality is included. The equivalent variation (E.V.) is then derived and used to analyze the changes of the consumer welfare before and after deregulation policy. Numerical results indicated that the consumer welfare obtained is about NT$42 billions per year base on E.V. measure in 1999. And if the civil aviation still regulated, the consumer welfare would have NT$25 to 44.8 billion loss in 1999. In other words, the entry deregulation has led to at least an NT$25 billions in consumer welfare.
In the earlier stage of the deregulation, most of airlines have the surplus. However, every operator appears loss gradually with a total amount of NT$ 7.87 billions in 1998, and NT$ 0.96 billions in 1999. It is important to provide the sustainable operation environment for the operator under the circumstance that the consumers have the net welfare while the operators have loss in business step by step. It should be noted that the performance of the consumer welfare could be maintained as long as the operators are profitable. Therefore, how the operator to adopt the best operation strategy and to create the profit is an important issue.
After entry deregulation, the airfare of domestic air services has inclined to be liberalized. In this situation, the circumstances of the airline profit become a crucial issue not only for the airlines but also for the aviation authority. This study then develops an analytic model for exploring the profitability issue of airlines. Maximum profit is considered as the objective function, while fare and service frequency are the two decision variables optimized. Taipei-Kaohsiung commercial link is used as an example to verify the applicability of the model. Guidelines for profitability can be obtained by this analysis. The profitability indicator should be based not only on the demand conditions but also on the supply characteristics of the operators. Although airlines can not control the market’s potential demand, they are able to control the advantageous factor of operating cost, adjust the operation structure of the company and consequently reach the profitable target. Finally, suggestions on practical applications and methodology are proposed. The operation strategies of airlines are also recommended and discussed.
目 錄
第一章 緒論……………………….……………………...……1
1.1研究動機………….…………………………………… …1
1.2研究目的…………………………………………………..6
1.3研究方法與步驟…………………………………………..7
1.4論文內容與架構…………………………………………..8
第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………....9
2.1民航政策開放之歷程……………………………………....9
2.2民航解除管制成效……………………………………...…12
2.3消費者福利衡量……………………………………….....22
第三章 政策開放前後民航運輸整體發展分析…………..….27
3.1國內民航放寬管制之背景………………………………...27
3.1.1放寬進入管制政策………………….…… ….……....27
3.1.2美國航空業解除管制與國內航空放寬管制之比.......28
3.2國內民航放寬管制之過程與內容……………………...…29
3.2.1加入管制……………………………..………….....…30
3.2.2退出管制…………………………..……………...…..30
3.2.3航線管制…………………………..…………….......31
3.2.4班次管制……………………………….…..…...…...31
3.2.5票價管制……………………………..………….......31
3.2.6經濟管制……………………………………….........31
3.2.7安全管制…………………………………..……….....32
3.2.8租購機限制……………………………………..….....32
3.3國內民航市場之演變…………………………………...…32
3.3.1機場場站……………………………...…...………...32
3.3.2航空公司營運……………………………...………....33
3.3.3航空器………………………………………...…......36
3.3.4航線變化…………………………………...……......37
3.3.5營運資料……………………………………...…......41
3.4航空費率管制之沿革………………….…..………..…..45
3.4.1票價管制政策之演變………………………...….…...47
3.4.2票價管制放寬後之影響………………………….......48
3.4.3票價政策檢討………………………………….…..…..51
3.4.4解除票價管制之時機與方式………………….…..…..52
第四章 民航放寬管制對消費者福利之影響………….…....55
4.1消費者福利理論基礎………………….……………..……55
4.1.1消費者福利理論概念………………………..l.…...…55
4.1.2消費者剩餘、補償變量與對等變量之衡量… .….....57
4.1.3消費者福利分析方法評析………………..……....….64
4.2研究方法………………………………….…………..……67
4.2.1消費者福利研究方法………………..……………...…67
4.2.2消費者剩餘品質調整…………………………….....…69
4.2.3品質提昇後市場真實價格……………………….....…70
4.2.4補償變量與對等變量之推導.…………………..…..…72
4.3民航放寬管制後與消費者福利……………….………....74
4.3.1實施民航放寬管制政策之情況……………….....……74
4.3.2不實施民航放寬管制政策之情況…………………...…82
第五章 民航放寬管制對民航業者財務績效影響分析…..… 89
5.1 航空公司資產總額概況………………..…………….. 89
5.2航空公司盈餘與虧損分析………………….…………..…91
5.3航空公司獲利力指標…………………….……………..…93
5.3.1個別公司之獲利力分析……………….…….…..…...93
5.3.2整體獲利力分析…………………..…………….....…94
第六章 民航放寬管制後民航業者營運策略分析…….…..…97
6.1業者營運獲利理論基礎…………..……………………...97
6.2航空運輸需求…………………………………..……….…99
6.3航空運輸成本………………………………..……..……101
6.4分析模式建立…………………………………..………..102
6.5實例驗證………………………………………..……..…106
6.5.1模式實例驗證以台北高雄航線為例………....…106
6.5.2模式應用限制………………………...…………..….111
6.6營運策略分析…………………………………………..…112
第七章 結論與建議………………………………………….115
7.1本研究具體貢獻…………………………………… .....115
7.2結論…………………………………………..…………..116
7.3建議………………………………………..……………..119
參考文獻……………………………………………..……...123
附錄一:消費者剩餘、補償變量與對等變量理論基礎.....129
附錄二:由普通需求函數推導補償變量與對等變量過.程……………………………………………………….…....135
附錄三:就業人口及平均所得估算表………………….……139
附錄四:符號定義表………………………………….……..141
附錄五:需求函數之推估流程………………….…….…...143
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