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研究生:林益生
研究生(外文):Lin Yi Sheng
論文名稱:家戶所得、縣市及都市化程度對消費需求支出影響之研究
指導教授:吳珮瑛吳珮瑛引用關係李皇照李皇照引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:農業經濟學研究所
學門:農業科學學門
學類:農業經濟及推廣學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2003
畢業學年度:91
語文別:中文
論文頁數:108
中文關鍵詞:線性近似理想需求體系消費需求
外文關鍵詞:LA/AIDS
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貧富不均向為一國中的主要社會問題之一,這種貧者越貧、富者越富的現象,違反社會公義,任何國家無不將縮短貧富差距列為其重要施政政策,近半個世紀以降,貧富不均的相關議題總成為眾人關注的焦點。然而過去探討貧富不均下對消費需求的影響之文獻討論並不多見,本文利用貧富不均的概念,而本研究正可彌補其不足。
為達研究目的,實證模型係以線性近似理想需求體系(linear approximate almost ideal demand system,LA/AIDS)為主,運用「中華民國臺灣地區九十年家庭收支調查報告」與「物價統計月報」、「臺北市物價統計月報」及「高雄市物價統計月報」兩大類資料,再利用反覆似乎無相關迴歸(iterative seemingly unrelated regression estimation,ITSUR)進行估計。
分三個層面探討,首先是不同家戶所得等級之間的比較,在支出比例方面呈現所得階級越高,對飲食、居住、醫療保健等消費項目的支出份額越低,反而在衣飾、運輸通訊、娛樂教育及雜項上隨所得程度提昇而增加,居住類支出比例則不分高低所得均佔整個家庭開銷的最大部分。價格彈性方面,皆為負值符合經濟預期,不論高低所得層級,飲食、衣飾、運輸通訊均為富有彈性,故我們知道,在價格發生變化時,消費者對此會有較大的反應,且如價格上漲的話,會增加其支出。居住、醫療保健、雜項則缺乏彈性,當面臨價格波動時,只能默默地忍受卻無力改變。只有娛樂教育在最低所得階層為缺乏彈性,在中高所得階層為具有彈性,表示高低所得間面臨娛樂教育類財貨價格波動時,會有不一樣的反應,價格下跌時,低所得仍受限於所得因素,無法增加太多娛樂教育財貨的消費,娛樂教育總支出會降低。而中高所得階層對娛樂教育的支出比重較大,顯示其對於此類財貨需求較多,價格下降時,反而會大量購買,以滿足其慾望,所以對娛樂消費支出會上升。
各所得等級的家計對財貨的特性相似,唯有對價格變動的反應程度不同之差。飲食、衣飾、娛樂教育、雜項上隨所得越高對價格敏感度越大居住、運輸通訊與醫療保健則越小。支出彈性方面,飲食、居住、醫療均為必需品,衣飾、運輸通訊、娛樂教育與雜項則為奢侈品,所得增加時,會消費更多此四類財貨。全部消費項目支出彈性銜隨所得層級越高而遞減,尤其在娛樂教育上,最高與最低所得的支出變動最明顯。此外,最高所得階層在所得增加後,會比最低所得階層更平均分配其消費。
其次依縣市別來看,消費支出比例而言,工商發達生活品質較高的縣市,如臺北市、新竹縣市、台中市等,其飲食、醫療保健支出比例相對於發展緩慢的縣市,如台東、花蓮、澎湖等縣都較低,衣飾、居住、運輸通訊、娛樂教育、雜項則相對較高。價格彈性方面,先就全國各縣市來看,全符合經濟預期,飲食、衣飾、運輸通訊為具有彈性,其餘為缺乏彈性。嘉義縣對飲食價格變動反應最低,新竹縣最高;衣飾價格彈性最低與最高分別為台南與台中縣,但差異不大;新竹縣最居住價格最敏感,嘉義縣則最不敏感;運輸通訊以澎湖縣最高,桃園縣最低;醫療保健價格變動對臺北市最沒反應,宜蘭縣則最有感覺;娛樂教育價格彈性最大是新竹市,最小是桃園縣,除桃縣外價格彈性小的均屬發展緩慢的縣市,如嘉義、台東、南投、宜蘭等縣;台東縣的雜項價格彈性最小,最大屬桃園縣。縣市支出彈性方面,飲食、居住、醫療對各縣市來說都歸於必需品,衣飾、通訊運輸、娛樂教育與雜項支出彈性都大於1,定義為奢侈品。新竹縣飲食支出彈性最小,嘉義縣;台中縣衣飾支出彈性最小,台南縣最大;居住支出彈性較少的皆是以農業為主的縣市,比方嘉義、雲林縣,較大的有新竹縣、台北縣市等工商縣市;桃園縣的運輸通訊支出彈性最小,澎湖縣最大;支出變動時,醫療保健類變動程度最小的是臺北市,最多的是宜蘭縣;桃園縣於支出增加時,娛樂教育支出幅度冠於全台,新竹市則是最後;雜項的話,以桃園縣變動最小,台東縣變化最大。
再來將縣市別與所得階層結合,如果在一所得階級,一縣市的該所得階級佔總戶數的比例為最大或最小者,將此一縣市選定為該所得階級的代表縣市。我們可以發現雖然都是工商發達的縣市,但是價格與支出彈性卻大小不一,主要還是受所得階層的影響。因此,將所得水準固定,看同一所得處於不同縣市的彈性值變化,依據本研究估算結果,低所得階層會因為所處縣市發展程度不同而有差異,然高所得階層卻較不受所處環境影響。而在同一縣市中各所得階層的價格彈性與支出彈性變化趨勢與全國所得階層變動方向相同,如台南縣十等份所得階層其飲食價格彈性高所得比低所得等級更敏感,與全台隨所得等級提高的飲食價格彈性變化趨勢相似。
最後是都市化程度的消費差異,飲食、衣飾、運輸通訊皆是具有彈性,居住、醫療保健、雜項為不具彈性。隨著都市化程度增加,對價格變化較敏感的有飲食、居住、娛樂教育、雜項,較不敏感的則是醫療保健,衣飾類則無明顯差異,娛樂教育則是最有明顯差異的一項,在鄉村地區娛樂為缺乏自身價格彈性財貨,都市地區則為富有彈性的財貨,意謂著價格變化時,娛樂支出會產生相異的結果,例如,娛樂類價格下降時,鄉村地區總支出會降低,都市地區支出卻會增加,廠商亦可據此擬定相關價格策略。當支出變動時,城鄉間又有何反應?首先對城鄉而言,飲食、居住、保健醫療均屬必需品,其中當支出增加時,鄉村地區家計單位用於飲食、醫療類上之消費支出的變動比都市地區明顯,居住類則是城市變動較明顯,概因都市地價比鄉村地價高,因此支出變化幅度會較大。衣飾、運輸通訊、教育娛樂跟雜項則為奢侈財,衣飾與運輸通訊支出彈性以城鎮地區最低,娛樂教育暨雜項支出變化幅度均隨都市化程度越高而減低。整體而言,鄉村地區則較偏好娛樂教育支出,都市生活機能較鄉村地區豐富,可取得的資源也較多,選擇也具多樣化,因此就算支出增加,也不會偏獨某一項消費,而是會平均分配其消費。
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機
第二節 研究目的
第三節 研究方法與步驟
第四節 論文架構
第二章 理論基礎
第一節 消費需求相關文獻探討
第二節 貧富不均第一層面─家戶所得分配不均探討
第三節 貧富不均第二層面─縣市差異探討
第四節 貧富不均第三層面─城鄉差距探討
第五節 需求體系理論模型
第六節 近似理想需求體系
第三章 資料來源說明與處理
第一節 資料來源說明
第二節 資料處理過程
第四章 實證模型設立與結果分析
第一節 LA/AIDS實證模型之設立
第二節 樣本資料分析
第三節 實證參數估計結果
第四節 需求彈性值分析
第五章 結論
第一節 結語
第二節 建議與未來研究方向
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